Seeking Alpha
  • det9
    Got out of $UVXY @ 12.51. Average was 15.26 I believe. Another time.
    1/18/13
    Reply (64)
    • det9: I still remember my $TVIX lesson.
      1/18/13
    • shortist: No no, its time to buy! Just a bit more down today and on Monday and then buy.
      1/18/13
    • det9: Haha thanks shortist. $UVXY may be my top 5 performer last year but would wait for now :)
      1/18/13
    • ComputerBlue: Im with shortist..approaching buy time.
      1/18/13
    • det9: I think shortist is being sarcastic.
      1/18/13
    • fire0nice228: I'm in at 13.57, hoping I dont lose my shirt here..
      1/18/13
    • det9: as long as you tied with stainless steel :)
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: $15.20 down to $12.51. Ouch! But you get huge kudos for being honest, and open. And another lesson learned for the next time. Cheers.
      1/18/13
    • det9: I am not done with $UVXY yet. It was my hero last year. I am pretty sure there will be another time. We need have a real issue for spike
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: One is never done with UVXY...... She's a siren......grin
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: My idea...a seperate account, at a seperate broker....then short it just after a reverse split. Hold short until $5 again. Repeat.
      1/18/13
    • det9: I know. That is apt :) Insatiable
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: That way, one could go long/short as needed in the original account. Good idea?
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: PC very good idea, almost seems too easy. Shorting UVXY is free money. Even if it jumps to 20, it'll go to 5 eventually.
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: But it seems too good to be true, there has to be a catch....
      1/18/13
    • det9: Until and unless a bear market starts...which will never happen with Bernanke :)
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: jc, one catch is having the second account. Ameritrade, for example, does not allow being short and long at the same time.
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: Another catch is the broker may call back the borrowed shares, and one may not get a chance to short again.
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: Truth among friends....I had UVXY short on Sept 10 last yr @ $36.31. Please don't do the math....grin. Problem was..that was ALL my money.
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: That's why I believe shorting UVXY should be done in a side account.
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: Yes but why not just invest all of your money in shorting UVXY? What will give you a better, more consistent return?
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: I agree if you want to buy and short, you need a 2nd acct, but why not just short and watch the price gradually drop and make money?
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: Point taken. It's inherently dangerous to put all one's money in one thing. Plus a good daytrader should be able to have a better 10dayavg%.
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: That said, taking a portion of one's money and shorting $UVXY after the next reverse split, 2nd account, would seem to be a good thing.
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: Please see my bio....about the "DO NOT FOLLOW". There is a good reason for that.......LOL
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: Haha don't worry I'm only theorizing... but when UVXY started in 2011 it was $2,500. Seem to be a good idea to short? I would love (cont)
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: to see any evidence to the contrary.
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: There could certainly be something I'm missing, but it's designed to go to zero, it has been going to zero, and will continue to go to zero
      1/18/13
    • vinyal: you will lose your shirt if you play with UVXY period. It says on the cover. " For HFT boys consumption only"
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: No argument from me. Plus one could have bought XIV (and doubled it with margin) @ 5 back when Dr Kris mentioned it. Now its 21+....(cont)
      1/18/13
    • Perkins Cove: (cont)....and no one could taken away your base shares. So, get ready for the next upheaval...and trade accordingly! Cheers!
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: UVXY is tough, because when you're down the most you face the question "How dumb would I be to SELL volatility with VIX under 12.5?"
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: I was 40% underwater on my UVXY short in Dec. That was actually easier because I knew it would come back down at some point,
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: and it did reverse to a 40% gain, although I sold closer to break-even. Instead I held onto VXX short and XIV long for gains which
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: fortunately outweigh my unrealized loss on UVXY at the moment. But today was an epic fall for UVXY. Still trying to figure out why I haven't
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: dumped it. Because I'm still up on volatility overall on the year? Because my longs are doing so well, I can justify it as a small hedge?
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: Or is it because the further it drops, the better it looks? VIX can't go much lower, but UVXY can. Still feels dumb to sell it here, as we
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: all know you should be fearful when everyone is greedy, and VIX at 12.5 means everyone is betting on up.
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: I think that you will make your money back in February, but I suppose my point is, if you're short UVXY, no matter how big of a hit you take
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: you can rest assured that you will make your money back, it always goes to zero. Again, from $2,500 in 2011, to 11.7 & falling.
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: Imagine if you shorted at $2,500, or $1,000, or anywhere, so much free money.
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: It's very difficult to short. A lot of people talk about it, but few actually do it. First, it's a miracle if your broker has shares
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: available to short. Second, if you're lucky enough to get some shares to short, they can be force-sold shortly after with a "buy-in",
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: which means there were shares available, but now there's not, and your broker (smartly) doesn't want the other side of that trade.
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: Third, there are usually daily charges for holding it short which add up to a lot of money over the course of 6 months or a year.
      1/18/13
    • Ocean Man: It's not as "free money" as it looks on a chart. Same goes for any other leveraged ETFs like FAZ, FAS, NUGT, DUST, etc. I've tried 'em all.
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: Thank you for explaining OM I am very new to all of this. I did manage to get 100 shares short about a month ago, when I knew even less,
      1/18/13
    • jcllier3: and covered quickly for a small gain.
      1/18/13
    • det9: OM: You spoke every single emotion I was going through. I just posted the other day about my gains from $CRZO. $UVXY may or may not spike
      1/19/13
    • det9: But I do not want to blow up like I did last year from $TVIX. It was pretty hard on me. I went back and analyzed about how I made money
      1/19/13
    • det9: from $UVXY last year. It was because I never held it more than 2 or 3 days. I was able to short once.Like you I was short $VXX and long $XIV
      1/19/13
    • det9: Lots of crazier things happened. Remember all the Europe problems. Not a single damn thing got solved yet we just made new highs. Politicans
      1/19/13
    • det9: and crooked whales rule this financial world and everything else...
      1/19/13
    • Ocean Man: Yep, TVIX was my biggest winner in 2011 and my biggest loser in Jan 2012. I may not have learned the lesson of staying away from volatility
      1/19/13
    • Ocean Man: but I did learn the lesson to play it in smaller amounts, and UVXY being a 2x should be played in half the amount of VXX / XIV.
      1/19/13
    • Ocean Man: At the moment, my portfolio gains since 12/28/12 are 58x my current loss on UVXY, so I'm not real concerned about it,
      1/19/13
    • Ocean Man: but still, percentage-wise, it was a terrible decision, the type I try to avoid with utmost importance.
      1/19/13
    • det9: That sounds good OM. Next week is big earnings week. If it comes out good $UVXY would either decay or go lower.
      1/19/13
    • Ocean Man: I plan to dump it by Thursday. Want to see if GOOG or AAPL take down the markets on Tues / Wed AH.
      1/20/13
    • Ocean Man: Technically, a hedge is something you are rooting for to lose. Say you bet $1,000 on the Patriots to win. Then you hear Brady is injured.
      1/20/13
    • Ocean Man: Instead of reducing your bet, you bet $200 for them to lose to reduce your risk. But you're still rooting for them to win (+$800 net), not
      1/20/13
    • Ocean Man: your hedge to win. That's how I see my hedges. They're supposed to lose if my big bets are correct, so I'm not real concerned when UVXY
      1/20/13
    • Ocean Man: drops. It makes you feel stupid when it drops disproportionately like Friday, but it should have dropped on Thursday and went up, so....
      1/20/13
    • det9: You are right. The problem was it has been dropping on both red and green days. Shorting regular stocks worked better than this.
      1/20/13