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  • Monthly Pay Dividend Dogs: February Stocks Vs. Funds And Trusts [View article]
    Forget advisors, no respectable advisor will allow you to put money in any of these issues. To them, this is the slum and ghetto, a nice lady like you should not go there.

    The higher the div the more risky it is, that is basic. I kept 2 stocks I bought in year 2000 in my portfolio just to remind me, MSFT ($43 in 2000 now $28) and GE ($50 in 2000 vs $23 today), how safe is blue chip GE? how is it possible anyone can lose money on GE? conclusion is they are not safer than hi-yield junk, junk is not junk.

    I chase div, div accumulated through many years is the best defense for me. Most will be solid, in few cases where I lost on price but made enough div to cover it, for me, that is okay, you can't win them all. Rule No.1, don't lose money.

    I read and I study, but frankly I don't know, just too complicated for me and I got a real job. I accepted this is a casino that I am forced to play in, I have money that must be put into places. I want investments I buy and forget. My method is time-proven, MTD, i.e. monkey throw darts. Spread them out in 2+ dozen high-yield CEFs, REITs, etc.. and went about my life.

    Thanks for the list, I added one or more each time I read it.
    Feb 14 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Less Known mREITs With Strong Momentum [View article]
    According to what I read today, Silver Bay buys, renovate and rent foreclosed homes.
    Feb 14 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Apple Be Working On The 'iBank'? [View article]
    Thanks for article and enjoyed reading it, well done. I normally do not read Apple news, maybe it is old hat to others, but I found it very refreshing. I know they are super busy working on some new hardware(s).
    Feb 14 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Apple Be Working On The 'iBank'? [View article]
    Am I going to buy more APPL because of this? of course not. You read about new apple rumors all the time, it was iWatch last week with some ugly watch picture. But this does remind me that APPL will have something shocking coming, I have no idea what it maybe, but it is a given that there will be new products, seems there is no shortage of "shocking" new ideas, so let's assume they will be shocking.

    I have a friend who works for Apple in new products, but forget about trying to get a word out of him, I don't even joke about it with him, he has been super busy, as always, whole team flying to China for extended period of time, so they are busy working on something. But Apple has a habbit of canceling new products suddenly after spending huge sum and time on them. I tend to think all these rumors are just wild guesses and far off the target, they are extremely and totally tight.
    Feb 14 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers Ltd. - An Alternative Analysis [View article]
    I accidentally stumbled into this room when studying investment issues in the shipping trade, I am extremely impressed with the conversation I heard, and the fact that I actually read every word in a trade I knew nothing about, but the exchanges were so professional, I could not stop. This is exceptional and rare on SA or anywhere. Top quality and professional conversation. Thank you.
    Feb 13 10:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Apple Be Working On The 'iBank'? [View article]
    Plausible, logical, doable and clever. That is what have been missing for a few years, some big wacko idea that is just, as they say, paradigm shifting.
    Feb 13 05:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Thing You Must Remember Before You Buy Another Stock [View article]
    Yes, you are correct, I agree with you, I do worry when market is high because a correction is coming, almost all will come back, but that takes time and I am not a day-trader. BUT, what do I do? sell what I got? too drastic and a huge task. What can I do?
    Feb 12 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Shiller: Don't Invest In Housing [View article]
    BUT, if I did not sell any of the houses I've sold, financially I'd have $1+ million more, because time heal all wounds and build value, regardless of valleys and peaks. 1989 house (peak of that cycle), 1996 house (bottom of market), both now worth double or triple today dispite of the RE crash and current bottom position. Even an overpaid house at the peak will turn out okay in 24 years.

    Life is not profit and loss, there were other more important reasons, such as kid's schools, moving to suburb, risk control of not wanting to support 3 properties at the same time(also have a self-use office building), or need money from one house for the next one.

    Sometimes you need to stop counting and start living.
    Feb 12 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Shiller: Don't Invest In Housing [View article]
    People asked JP Getty his secret for success, he said, never buy at bottom, never sell to top. Because you cannot time it perfectly, you may miss them completely.

    Most people do not buy a home to make a killing, it is an emotional decision and a place to call home. If it drops a little, it is okay, if it very slowly appreciates in the years to come, 1%, 3%, 5%, that is okay. Beats 0.1% int. from banks or risks in the stock market. If you have enough cash to buy a home today, a home that maintains its value without profit is a solid financial choice, maybe perfect to balance the wild crazy horses in your portfolio.

    The primary price calculation is "Defense" as you don't want it to drop a lot. Your judgement is if today's price wiped out 10 years of bubble, is it back to 2003? Many real estate websites show you the price history, this is not hard to find out. I've seen current high prices as if the crash never happened and sold at those high prices, and there are prices at early 2000 level. This may or may not be the bottom, but it should be somewhere in that neighborhood, give or take a few % or 6 months or 1-2 years, does not really matter in the long run. If you over paid a little, that is irrelevant in the long run.

    Set your expectation low, all you want is a nice home to live and keep, you will not make a penny but you will not lose a penny, don't check home value, don't brag about it, keep a low profile. Once you bought a TV, you don't check prices anymore. You will do very well, anything extra that comes in the next 10-20 years will come.

    Sometimes one should not be too smart and calculate too much, if it is somewhere in the ball park, that is okay.
    Feb 12 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monthly Pay Dividend Dogs: February Stocks Vs. Funds And Trusts [View article]
    I don't think these are his "PICKS" but useful data and info. I have some already, those I do not have, I check varies websites to find out more data and info to make my investment decisions. I use CEFconnect to find out NAV, another site to find out what they do, then I check what people are saying about them on SA. There is no substitute to homework. I usually buy a small position, watch them and maybe increase my positions in the following months.

    The risks I have seen since Jan is AOD, AGD and JE all cut div by half, which resulted big drop in prices. Just by one day earlier, the loss could've very big. I equally worry about Cornerstone funds at 18% div. and unable find much talk about them, they look like div cut candidates to me, when that happen, I will lose big %. Anyone has anything bad to say about Cornerstone?
    Feb 11 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Shiller: Don't Invest In Housing [View article]
    I made same mistake in 1989 and bought a home, which was the peak of that cycle. Sold that house 7 years later $30K below buying price. Mortgage interest was 12%, I could not refinance. But I never "walk away", because one does not do that, you honor your debt. That kept the door open for many subsquent opportunities, 24 years later, that $30K loss (plus $210,000 in interest and selling cost) is distance memory and trivia in comparison to what I made after that.

    We all make mistakes, but I do not make the same mistakes, I tend to favor new mistakes.
    Feb 11 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Shiller: Don't Invest In Housing [View article]
    Next time, there will be next time, you will know as we did. That is called Experience.

    Despite the large number of underwater and forclosures, mass majority of Americans did not play the game in 2004-2007 and have solid home finances, that itself is the proof. Those who knew tend to be older Americans who have seen the cycles a few times. We looked like idiots during those years as so many people at every gathering were talking about how much money they "made" on real estate. I often said, until you sold, you have not made any money, all laughed at me.

    I have on many occasions advised friends and young employees not to buy homes during those years, none listened to me, "real estate will never drop". all underwater by as much as 75% (still so now) or lost the houses. We looked like fools during those years, we just waited patiently, took a lot longer than we estimated, thus the fall was much harder.

    Most Americans knew the property crash was coming, but we did not anticipate the length and its effect on banking crisis, due to unprecedented low interest, and easy loans thru mortgage packages, because those factors are new, always something different each time.
    Feb 11 02:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monthly Pay Dividend Dogs: February Stocks Vs. Funds And Trusts [View article]
    Your Jan article was well timed, I bought AOD and AGD Monday after reading your article while on a business trip, not exactly sure which days. The prices bought came in far lower than estimated, Schwab excuted the orders at lowest point that morning. So to me, your timing was just right on these 2.

    Further reading online revealed Alpine funds are not as solid as I want, will exit after a few months of dividends. Not as nimble to exit quarterly div issues, you need to wait 3 months.

    Thanks for the data.
    Feb 11 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Shiller: Don't Invest In Housing [View article]
    Young people can afford to think they are the smartest people and certain of everything, older people with experience are wiser to know they are not smart, they can only "guess estimate" and not to trust their own judgement fully. By the time you are 40, 50, 60, if you are not the most successful person in the country or in your state or county, you should know you are not as smart as you thought you were.

    Pending bust was a wide spread knowledge, I was drivng with a banker friend, passed a big condo under construction, he said if you know what I know, this entire block-long project will be forclosed and that bank will go under, this was 2005. Came true, 2-3 years later, all the major construction we saw that day on that highway, and the banks too.
    Feb 11 03:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Shiller: Don't Invest In Housing [View article]
    I am with you on being too early to know. Last home I bought in 1996 for $900K (bottom), sold in early part of 2000 for $1.4mm, because I thought prices were crazy and sure to crash. My gain was very modest, because next owner renovated it top to bottom and sold it for $3.7mm in 2007. Sounds like a ponzi scheme. No regret, I do not have such abilities, brain, guts and skills to renovate and time it perfectly.

    This new home I bought in 6/2012 (bottom?) for $2mm, on the market since 2007 at $4mm, seller had no loan owed. Is this market a dead cat bounce? Am I confident I am right? absolutely not, I am average Joe with no chart and no fancy data, just guess estimate.

    As the Zen Master said, "We'll see." You don't count your chips until the game is over.
    Feb 10 05:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment