collinjogger

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    • Tue Nov 11th 17:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Let Bulk Shippers Sink Your Portfolio... For Now
      Shippers are like oil wild catters, i.e. once a shipper always a shipper. They seldom die, they just hibernate the bad cycles and primary investors have infinite patience. They thrive on debt and there's always a contract around the next corner. You have to be Greek to understand.
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    • Sun Oct 12th 10:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Industry: Farewell, Good Old Days
      Once again, in this chicken/egg issue, we are failing to recognize that
      it is a rising dollar that has caused falling oil prices. The world's need for oil will not diminish until a satisfactory replacement is functional.

      In fact, prices will reverse eventually as drilling/production is temporarily
      curtailed due to lack of credit financing for those enterprises. It may also follow that exploration/drilling activity will move over to cash- rich large cap integrated companies for the time being.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 30th 10:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The U.S. Banking System is Effectively Insolvent
      Marking to market in itself is not the problem, but assigning the current value of an asset to the balance sheet without considering historical value and future projections is the problem. It is as useless to assign the lowest historical value to a property as it is to assign the highest value.

      Real estate value is not a moment in time but decades of time. To drive our mortgage institutions to insolvency by this valuation method is self perpetuating and self defeating. Real property needs to be valuated based on something like a ten year average. Doing so will not only prevent premature insolvency but it will stop banks from giving out unsafe equity loans based on the highest value as well.

      The criteria used for assigning real property valuation needs to be
      reconsidered. The current method is fundamentally flawed, but
      it is carried forward in an effort to provide transparency and honesty.
      However, it is a fundamentally flawed concept to apply it as the primary
      criterion for institutional health. American society allows its regulators to move from one extreme to the other -- from making decisions based
      on non disclosure to making them based on full disclosure as though
      financial markets can survive the transition following the same set of valuation rules. At the very least, we can say a home is not really valued until it is sold.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 30th 10:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nose Cut Off, Face Spited, Now What?
      Marking to market in itself is not the problem, but assigning the current value of an asset to the balance sheet without considering historical value and future projections is the problem. It is as useless to assign the lowest historical value to a property as it is to assign the highest value.

      Real estate value is not a moment in time but decades of time. To drive our mortgage institutions to insolvency by this valuation method is self perpetuating and self defeating. Real property needs to be valuated based on something like a ten year average. Doing so will not only prevent premature insolvency but it will stop banks from giving out unsafe equity loans based on the highest value as well.

      The criteria used for assigning real property valuation needs to be
      reconsidered. The current method is fundamentally flawed, but
      it is carried forward in an effort to provide transparency and honesty.
      However, it is a fundamentally flawed concept to apply it as the primary
      criterion for institutional health. American society allows its regulators to move from one extreme to the other -- from making decisions based
      on non disclosure to making them based on full disclosure as though
      financial markets can survive the transition following the same set of valuation rules. At the very least, we can say a home is not really valued until it is sold.
      Report abuse
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    • Tue Sep 30th 10:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why This Bailout Can't Work - And What Will
      Marking to market in itself is not the problem, but assigning the current value of an asset to the balance sheet without considering historical value and future projections is the problem. It is as useless to assign the lowest historical value to a property as it is to assign the highest value.

      Real estate value is not a moment in time but decades of time. To drive our mortgage institutions to insolvency by this valuation method is self perpetuating and self defeating. Real property needs to be valuated based on something like a ten year average. Doing so will not only prevent premature insolvency but it will stop banks from giving out unsafe equity loans based on the highest value as well.

      The criteria used for assigning real property valuation needs to be
      reconsidered. The current method is fundamentally flawed, but
      it is carried forward in an effort to provide transparency and honesty.
      However, it is a fundamentally flawed concept to apply it as the primary
      criterion for institutional health. American society allows its regulators to move from one extreme to the other -- from making decisions based
      on non disclosure to making them based on full disclosure as though
      financial markets can survive the transition following the same set of valuation rules. At the very least, we can say a home is not really valued until it is sold.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 29th 11:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why This Bailout Can't Work - And What Will
      I do not understand what you mean in Item 6 when you recommend boosting asset valuation while writing down bad assets to market. Since much of the current problem derives from poor real estate valuations and performance of related mortgages, I believe the following comment conveyed to the House Finance Committee may be pertinent:

      "It is no more realistic to valuate real property at zero [or nearly zero] worth because of a frozen market than it is to assign it value at its historicaly highest price, [whether] estimated or actual. A more realistic and practical measure of worth could be obtained by figuring an average over ten years or assigning a mean figure for that term. Value of almost any asset cannot be measured solely by one moment in time.

      The FASB directive to mark to market at the latest and (in this case) the lowest price should be modified. Putting accountants in charge of the economy is just as dangerous as putting attorneys in charge of medical practice.

      A program to help resolve the financial crisis by allowing federal acquisition of distressed assets at premium prices in order to inject liquidity into the banking credit system is a tacit admission of the inadequacy of the traditional FASB ruling. As excess inventory in the housing market is worked off in the next few years valuations will eventually return to normal and will climb higher than the premium prices paid by the federal program for those assets. That occurence will then validate the recommended change in FASB directives for real estate.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 24th 08:43 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Be Fooled - Short Selling Restrictions Do Work
      On the surface it appears to me that suspension of short sales for financials has provided a short covering rally, sufficient for some long investors to partially or fully recover, at which point they have or will sell.
      The question is to whom do they sell? Only the market makers? How much inventory can market makers absorb? My question is what prudent fund manager would invest in finance equities if he cannot hedge his position by protective puts? A spread of long financials and short the Dow or something like that will not meet the protection requirement standards of many mutual funds, pension managers and conservative investors of a large scale. Consequently, it seems to me that suspension of short sales removes .buyers from the market, creates considerable slippage in volume, and in the long run leads to lower capitalization. In so doing it also contributes to more rather than less volatility in the finance sector. I have big gaps in my Economics and Markets 101 education, so maybe I am entirely off base on this, but if so I would like to be corrected by those who kjnow better.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 21st 13:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Read It and Weep for the USA
      While I agree with many who object to the proposed legislation and question the constitutionality of it, I doubt that most people are aware of the gravity of the situation. If banks report they are illiquid it may mean they cannot open their doors for business. If they cannot issue new loans to consumers or business or successfully call in and close the outstanding loans on their balance sheet they cannot meet the test of sufficient reserves to redeem depositor money. I am all but certain that the central bankers, Paulson and Bernanke are dealing with a condition of that gravity. Under such a circumstance all bets are off concerning the preservation of constitutional principle. The life of the global financial system is at stake and must be saved at all cost.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 7th 09:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Only Chart True Investors Need to See
      Precisely, buyitcheap. Factor in inflation and it's a zero sum gain in 150 years. Even in 1937 Lobster Thermador Honeymoon Special for Two with a split of world class champagne cost 87 cents (before
      tip) at a major hotel restaurant in New York City (evidenced by my
      parents' scrap book).
      View article »
    • Sat Jul 19th 09:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Amazon.com Really Worth Over $70 a Share?
      If Kindle is marketed rapidly and aggressively to capture its full potential from all forms of print media and related contracts with
      content sources, and if the device, itself, is constantly improved
      and upgraded with bluetooth interface to various smart phones
      without morphing into yet another laptop there would be every
      reason for ever higher valuation on AMZN. The outcome rests on the shoulders of AMZN management.
      View article »
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