Growin$$

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    • Sat Sep 20th 22:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bond Expert: Friday Wrap
      Someone who compared this to an Excel spread sheet said it all - unless it is interpreted and still worth explaining, it shouldn't be accepted - this is gobbledygook to most of us at least as to the intelligent nuances and intuitive implications the writer wishes to convey.
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    • Thu May 8th 20:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Allied Capital Corporation Earnings Call Transcript
      ALD has long dividend paying record;at one point or more in its history,present shareholders had the opportunity to buy into new financing. ALD has done, I think, 3 financings in the last year that are or potentially are dilutive. They extended the annual meeting vote on a NEW proposal to allow them to sell stock below NAV. I do not understand failure of analysts to question these actions or proposed actions; in their pre-directors' meeting document, they specifically said they had an unusually large number of smaller investors. I can only assume many, like myself,hold ALD for dividend income; suddenly ALD is accepting dilution and asking unlimited (no time or $$ limit) approval for stock sales below NAV with even greater dilution. Neither ALD nor analysts mentioned "boo" about this; as a near 20 year holder of the stock I was left with the feeling this meeting was an accounting session and certainly not tactically nor strategically for investors of any size.If the analysts don't think this will affect the stock price, thats their business;if Bill Walton doesn't think that will affect shareholder continuity, it is sad. He should have addressed these events as shareholder concerns.
      I think most of us have accepted Mr. Einhorn was a sore loser; we did not believe ALD would abandon the reason for its shareholder loyalty and diversity. Mr. Walton's failure to ensure it was discussed today in a public forum convinces me we have been wrong.
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    • Sun May 4th 18:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Data: Crybabies and Deceivers
      Not to start data argument,we'll be around this topic until end of '09 IHMO. However, the Economist article,one of Oct. issues I believe, said and showed first peak of resets around June/July of '08 - at which point 50% would have occurred - then next peak about same time in '09. Their comment was the quality of the second half was expected to be better, whatever that might have meant.Since it was never clear what the denominator was, I tried to calculate the denominator mechanism and then calculate the inventory in months. I could never, ever get housing inventory below 14 months, usually higher. Finally, be careful of citing new home demand statistics; the government numbers are based on some arcane formula based on births, deaths and %% knows what else but it is not based on anything relevant to prior purchasing rate, state of economy or availability. If they can pay the mortgage, there are a lot of people who might have sold and bought who are sitting tight; some good prices out there, not as good as they will be, but they can't buy without selling, and they can't sell.
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    • Fri May 2nd 21:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sell in May, Go Away - Fast Money Recap (4/30/08)
      I believe the Chesapeake discussed on the show was CHK
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    • Fri Apr 25th 00:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Impending Mortgage Crisis
      1. No work or investment issues of conflict.
      2. A good article in The Economist clearly showed the first re-set peak to be end of june'early july this year and an eye-ball scan said that about 50% of re-sets were under the curve at that point. The curve drops and then rises steeply to ~ the same time in 2009 when the second peak occurs. The shading of the lines was intended to suggest the last 50% might be financially more capable of the reset.
      3.I wrote to a number of friends on Sept 9 that the earliest time this problem could end was June 2008 - and that assumed the world was perfect. I wrote then and believe today that we will not live our lives with little concern about this issue and its fallout before early 2010.
      Super piece of work- I am inclined to think those who discount this because all markets are local are assuming these are usual times - they are not and national approximations are possibly more valid, particularly since we are not at the home price bottom, the banks will not lend even with lower rates,and recently the Senate was approving legislation that let builders capitalize costs related to holding unsold property which means they'll all start building again if they have a dime - the gentleman who implied they wouldn;t build homes they couldn'[t sell is just ignoring reality. Builder kept building and starting new homes all through the fall - for many excuses (sell the land, etc.) but it was, to me, a form of denial and blinders. again, great article.
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    • Wed Apr 23rd 09:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      This column cites housing inventories -I think they are understated. Do you know what sales rate is being used in the divisor??
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    • Thu Apr 10th 15:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Larry Kudlow is Dead Wrong: CRA Didn't Start the Meltdown
      1. I'd like stats to see the % of homes in the fragile reset condition that extends past mid-summer '09 are CRA type lending. My own contact with people in the mortgage business would suggest this is utter nonsense!
      2.I don't indulge in Dem vs. Rep - after the ethanol bill and now the "keep the builders happy bill" I share the viewpoint of a friend who asked "How could 535 people be so collectively stupid?"
      3. Mortage brokers were going gangbusters in 2002;Wall St. merely poured gasoline on the fire - and the banks and mortgage guarantee agencies had already abdicated quality discipline. Certainly no one expected Wall St. to do anything but push deteriorating ethics and business practices downhill; that's what they seem trained to do.
      4.This took crooks at every level, wink-wink at every level (Confucius or someone said "when 2 men wink, both men are blind." Banks were so anxious to cut costs and merge they had inadequate loan departments who I am sure were egged on into approvals. I'm also sure some bank officer said, "If you do this for a CRA loan, why not for a 750,000 up-and-comer?" That doesn't make CRA the cause.
      5.We have to have regulation because $$$ have run over ethics and responsibility,not because of socialism or freemarkets. Under the socialism that Larry fears, everyone cheats to survive;under free markets as practiced today, some cheat but they get great leverage.
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    • Tue Apr 1st 18:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Far Will House Prices Fall? Implications From the Latest WSJ Survey
      Excellent work even if much of it is beyond my statistics study. From context, I judge the most optimistic at the end is the result of readers who say 'here are reasons it can't happen.' Looking purely at homes as a manufactured commodity, one starting with at least 9 months of excess inventory, one whose "marketing forces" face serious liquidity issues in early stages and perhaps more serious interest rate increases throughout and who also face a "saturated market" in many terms, it would be hard to believe that average deterioration would not be at least 35%. Put it another way, the market doesn't need it, there's lots of it around,cheap doesn't matter if monthly payments are driven up by rates,buyers are experiencing economic slowing of some depth and the entire financial bottleneck will not release uniformly leaving eager buyers unable to sell their homes (down payment source now required) or eager sellers anxious to relocate can't find qualified buyers (see above). The greater the granularity of the analysis, the more these mini-bottlenecks exacerbated by cautious tight money look very real. Ergo, 35% might be good news.
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    • Thu Mar 6th 15:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Federal Reserve, the Economy, and Stocks
      Until someone tells me how the CDO issue (the trigger of this,if you please) is resolved, not by the Fed,or the Fed Gov't., or by any magic wand, rather by a step-by-step exposition of the REAL steps it will take to unwind a mortgage default on 123 Main St. USA that sits in the CDO portfolio of a cash-squeezed financial institution at 789 never-never land, Wall St. USA or a bankrupt bank/financial institution at ein-zwei-drei Das-Strasse, EU, I will have a hard time agreeing with anyone's forecast or crystal ball. Absolutely no one has yet dealt with that hard, fundamental issue - the core issue recognized implicitly last August. Write-offs, insurance company bail-outs are tangential problems whose solution or partial solution doesn't truly solve the core cause.
      The detailed exposition of a solution that will be implemented, however painful or onerous its impacts, will be the first step in a long road to establishing the accepted valuations whose current absence is destroying peoples' ability to trust anyone who is called "financial" or borrower. The inability or failure to see how to do this rather specific act is assiduously sabotaging all the other efforts, to date, because none of the the so-called incremental solutions deal with the fundamental issue of unwinding the originating trade.
      Since all of the above analyses, up-down-and sideways, goldilocks & apocalypse, fail to provide this, I do not believe they can be tested for validity as they have not illustrated a process on which their or anyone's potentially positive vision must be based. Growin$$
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    • Wed Feb 20th 20:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Allied Capital Corporation Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript
      This needn't be published. I just wanted to thank you for the effort to get transcripts like this out in such a timely manner. almost 40 years ago I had to wait and hope such transcripts would be out within a month of their date (or longer) and I paid $2000 a year for that privilege (shouldn't tell you that!). Then it was a corporate need, now you make a modest private investor's work a lot easier. Thank you.
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    • Wed Jan 16th 22:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Timeless Money Center/Government Dance
      a
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    • Wed Jan 16th 22:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Timeless Money Center/Government Dance
      WHY DOESN'T THE US GOV'T BUY 10 YEAR PREFERRED AT 7% ISSUED BY THE BANKS SPECIFICALLY FOR THIS PURPOSE, OFFERED TO ANY BANK WRITING DOWN THEIR CDO'S TO SAY, 15%,WITH SAID PREFERREDS NOT TO EXCEED 75-85% OF WRITE-DOWNS. THESE BANKS WOULD HAVE TO ALSO AGREE TO PHASE IN THEIR RESETS OVER 3 YEARS, AND PERHAPS CONVERT THE MORTGAGE OF THOSE HOPELESS CASES, FIRST TO A 30 YEAR STRAIGHT LINE MONTHLY AMORTIZATION OF LOAN PRINCIPAL, THEN IF THIS DOESN'T WORK THEY CAN FORECLOSE, IF IT DOES WORK,THIS WILL CONVERT TO RENTAL OVER SAY FIVE YEARS BEGINNING ONE YEAR AFTER THE ORIGINAL RE-SET DATE.
      LET'S LOOK AT THE RESULT. BANK LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS REDUCED, STOCK MARKET AND OTHER INVESTOR RISK AND DISCOUNTING SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED BY FORCING THE WRITEDOWN INSTEAD OF PLAYING THIS "HOW LONG CAN I FAKE OUT THE MARKET" NONSENSE GOING ON TODAY. THE US BALANCE OF PAYMENTS WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED, INTEREST ON THE PREFERREDS COULD GO TO THE TREASURE OR 50% TO A FOCUSSED ISSUE, THE IMPACT OF THE RESET PEAK WHICH I BELIEVE OCCURS IN 2009 WILL BE SPREAD, SINCE ANYONE NOT ABLE TO REFI OR TO PAY THE MORTGAGE AS WRITTEN WILL HAVE SOMETHING ON THEIR CREDIT RECORD THEY WILL NOT BE LEFT OFF SCOTT FREE. THE WORK-OUTS WILL BE LEFT IN THE HANDS OF THOSE WHO MIGHT WELL WANT TO GET RID OF THOSE PREFERREDS (MANY THEY SHOULD ESCALATE 1/2% A YEAR AS ADDED INCENTIVE), THE GOVERNMENT WOULD HAVE ITS MESSY INCOMPETENT INVOLVEMENT MINIMIZED. SOME TERMS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE RESTRICTIONS ON LAWSUITS; HOWEVER, THE US WOULD NOT BE IN THE POSITION OF RETROACTIVELY REWORDING FINANCIAL DOCUMENTS.

      The numbers used are approximate, but I thought would be good enough for illustration. The definition of the scope and depth of the problem, the means of action available to mortgagors and mortgagees and a more generous time frame would remove further uncertainty, use of our US government money at a rate would be less damaging to the US$
      and balance of payments, the markets
      could then focus on the issues brought about by a weakening economy and consumer credit - I have no interest in destroying the real world, just taking the mumbo-jumbo out of the CDO and so-called sub-prime problem.
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    • Wed Jan 16th 22:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Florida regulators have to be kidding! They are already having to back-fill homeowners insurance with a state insurance that is going to kill tax-payers when another bad year comes along. Failing to allow increases was just part of their tactics to woo insurance companies. Now credit-worthy, longtime customers are being axed with non-renewal; are they now going to do the same to auto insurance? Seems to me that some of the things they were asking for were populist harassment not solid negotiating. What a joke they are.
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    • Sun Dec 2nd 20:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Verizon Interest in LTE - Don't Be So Hasty
      1. Verizon seems to be doing the big corporate always a bridesmaid, never a bride.
      2. Why? Sprint seems to be in real trouble and a friendly, now "so-called open" Verizon is trying to look welcoming to the only other CDMA's around.

      3. Verizon seems to have been put on the back foot by Google - and stayed there using words, not actions to appear otherwise. Their chairman said they are even going to GSM - what decade???
      Verizon could have swallowed their ego and worked with Google and made a real strategic coup (tho I doubt they could have worked with an innovative customer oriented partner), but they didn't.
      4.IMHO, it's all a dream waltz, or if you prefer, lots of sound signifying nothing!

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    • Sat Oct 6th 22:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Does a Decade Make Core Inflation "Transitory?"
      There is no law that says highly variable components of inflation cannot be smoothed over a longer time period and added back. There is a "law" that says most people living day to day don't believe the basis of what the Fed says and is doing. I am a reasonably intelligent businessman; I am also a breadwinner, a shopper for daily needs, short term and long term personalty - and the Fed's choice of core inflation discredits its competence, groups its efforts with the "rest of the idiots" in Washington who are totally out of touch with reality (last phrase not mine but from a solid blue collar worker). WE HAVE HAD INFLATION THAT NO ONE CAN CALL TRANSITORY FOR AT LEAST 2 YEARS probably fed by the Fed's failure to tighten up while fueling a false economic "boom" in unpaid for housing. I believe the Fed may retain the last vestige or aura of competence that many trust a bit in Washington,DC. Loss of trust in that institution would be the greatest loss and that is happening today when we see inflation all around us for 2 or more years and someone says "it's under control."
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