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  • Micron Becalmed - 'A Painted Ship On A Painted Ocean' [View article]
    Thanks for the encouraging analysis. However, I am confused and somewhat disturbed by an image of the author somehow wetting his appetite.
    "Rumors... calling this new product 'revolutionary' certainly wet my appetite..."

    May 16, 2015. 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Hit By Ongoing Disaster At Sharp [View article]
    Interesting article -- thanks. With Apple's suppliers making little profit, such issues are bound to arise from time to time.
    May 15, 2015. 04:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 39% Annualized Return And AT&T [View article]
    What becomes of the contract when the deal goes thru? I presume it will convert to some odd contract of T Jan put. Otherwise current prices would not be what they are.
    May 10, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Phony War Over [View article]
    Dana, yes, a mostly-stock deal would be dilutive, but Mr. Softie could pay all cash or cash plus debt, in which case it might not be dilutive. A superficial glance shows CRM with -263M earnings but +1B cash flow for TTM, so depending on accounting differences after merger, it might be immediately accretive to earnings in a cash deal. Does Nadella have any better ideas for his boatload of cash? If he thinks CRM would really help MS grow in coming years, synergies and so on, it could be worth it. It depends on what future he might envision here, if the rumor has substance.
    May 6, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sysco Stock Heading To $42 Despite Third-Quarter Earnings Miss [View article]
    With a p/e over 25, the dividend of nearly 4% is eating nearly all of the earnings. Need to look at cash flow, debt, capital needs, and so on -- the concern being whether the yield is sustainable. Unfortunately, I'm too lazy for that this morning.
    May 5, 2015. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Be Terrified, In One Chart [View article]
    This article could make great satire, a nice example for Logic 101. Note that margin debt is positively correlated with the stock market -- the more money in people's accounts, the more margin they have and use. Doh! EVERY time the market reaches a new high, margin debt also makes a new high. Margin debt is not a leading indicator for the market. Lowbidder is correct; a coincident indicator makes no prediction at all.
    May 5, 2015. 07:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, China's Market Is In A Bubble, And No, It Won't End Well [View article]
    David, to answer your question more directly, I think a bubble is by definition a large unsustainable market rise due to the psychology of momentum or unrealistic expectations. Re this article, is the doubling of SSEC in less than a year a bubble or is the market accurately forecasting? I agree with Hale that it looks like a bubble, but only time will tell.
    May 4, 2015. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, China's Market Is In A Bubble, And No, It Won't End Well [View article]
    David, it's a matter of definition. Every peak is not a bubble. Cyclical stocks may go up and down with business cycles without ever getting into bubble territory. Historically such stocks would have low p/e during the "boom" phase (high earnings) and high p/e (low profits) during downturns. This is because the stock market would discount the extremes of the business cycle, always looking forward, so no bubbles.
    May 4, 2015. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates This Year [View article]
    Nice presentation, so thanks. Looks like good news. It will be difficult for the Fed to raise rates much as Europe has a negative rate.
    May 2, 2015. 01:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We In A Bubble Yet? [View article]
    The tone of this article doesn't seem to jive with the data presented. The first graph, FCF yield vs 10-yr bond yield, suggests that the bull market has years left to run. What out there suggests that interest rates will rise substantially in the foreseeable future?
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Graphs To Watch In 2015: 1st Quarter Update [View article]
    Thanks for the nice charts and analysis. As for interpreting #5, the "refinancing index" is not defined and y-axis isn't scaled. Would the zero point (no refinancing) be on this graph, or far below it? In other words, what proportional change are we looking at?
    Apr 27, 2015. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, China's Market Is In A Bubble, And No, It Won't End Well [View article]
    David, you describe well how normal business cycle can produce bubbles by over-investment. A bubble is a bubble if it bursts, so time will tell on this one.
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Ignore The Clueless Research Firms [View article]
    "BAC has paid something like $50 billion in litigation claims over the past few years... However, that is 10 cents of EPS (roughly)..."

    $50B divided by 10B shares = $5 per share. Care to check your numbers?
    May 13, 2014. 07:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla, SolarCity, And The Birth Of The Lithium-Based Economy [View article]
    Just curious, but it would seem to me that a capacitor storing as much energy as a lithium battery could be quite explosive if shorted out internally, as in a collision. What are the thoughts on that?
    May 7, 2014. 09:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Countdown At J.C. Penney, An Opportunity For Speculators [View article]
    Way to stick your neck out. I applaud you for such bold specifics. Here's hoping that your head doesn't get lopped off.
    May 7, 2014. 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment