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JYucca

JYucca
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  • Is Morgan Stanley's Veeva Upgrade A Belated April Fools Prank? [View article]
    They just placed a large secondary offering. I don't want to say that they feel obliged to boost the stock now for a while, but it seems to be the norm that stocks find support for several weeks following a secondary offering. Years ago a broker once told me, while pawning a secondary offering, that I could expect a 15-20% gain in the next two months or so. That was exactly what happened, after which the stock sagged to 20% below the price of the secondary offering. I've seen the same happen with many other stocks. I covered my short calls yesterday, before an investor conference today and earnings in a few days, and expect to short again.
    Apr 2 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Consensus: Bullish At Last [View article]
    The opposite.
    Apr 2 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I don't think he's correct. If he didn't sign up, he wasn't counted. If he did sign up, he'll receive bills soon and then if he doesn't want to pay, he'll be dunned.
    Apr 2 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Breadth Continues To Wane And Warn [View article]
    Well, there's more than one way to look at it. Going by your graph, eyeballing it, it appears that the 70% mark, for the fraction of stocks above their 200 dma, is about the average for this bull market that began in 2009. Given that stocks rose so strongly in 2013, it is hardly a surprise that a good fraction of stocks would take breathers or pull back. I would not say that "fewer and fewer" stocks are participating in the bull market at this point.
    Apr 1 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF Deal Will Break Ukraine, Harm Global Stability [View article]
    Ukraine is broken as it is. They must end those insane gas subsidies. The subsidies have prevented them from developing their own energy resources. No, they won't pay 1/5 of income on heating. Instead they will stop wasting so much energy, the way all people waste what is heavily subsidized. People adapt. Now, perhaps they will be motivated to make these and other painful changes, especially in politics, government, and law. This is a great opportunity for them to make the kind of progress that Putin fears and the EU requires, toward building a society based on transparency and laws.
    Mar 28 08:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Longer Posting At Seeking Alpha [View instapost]
    I am sorry, though I respect your decision. I hope that you will continue elsewhere and let us know. Your articles have provided good insight in an amusing style.
    Mar 27 07:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philly Fed Leading Economic Index Suggests Expansion Across 100% Of The Nation [View article]
    You have to trust *something*.
    Mar 27 06:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Sell-Off Brings Value To U.S. Healthcare Stocks [View article]
    Oh, i wouldn't care to write about that even if I had real expertise. I don't think it would offer any actionable advice. I agree that the market seemed to have over-reacted on biotech. On the other hand, the market's seems to shifted WAY risk-off, so the downturn in biotech could be mostly for other reasons.
    Mar 26 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech Sell-Off Brings Value To U.S. Healthcare Stocks [View article]
    "biotechnology companies should be able to charge free market pricing to recoup their drug investment cost"

    Free market pricing? Ha ha haaa! Well, i see that you're smiling, so maybe you're joking. I'll tell you who does NOT want free-market pricing -- biotech/healthcare companies. In a free market, insurance companies wouldn't have to pay $100,000 per treatment, unless premiums were so high that 90% of Americans couldn't afford insurance. In a free market, there would be no Medicare, no Medicaid, no VA to pay whatever the asking price. Actually, in a free market, buyers of the drugs, namely the insurers, would negotiate on price, and in this case the buyer often is ultimately government. Imagine that, governments negotiating on drug prices (which they do in many countries) instead of just paying whatever. Actually, didn't Waxman just ask the company to justify the price? Did he say they shouldn't recoup their costs of development? Not exactly a hard bargaining line. What I see is industry being very busy, and very successful, lobbying for protected markets, not free ones.
    Mar 26 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should An Intelligent REIT Investor Buy CapStead Mortgage? [View article]
    Nice comment, rsd57 (unlike MP's negative comment lacking any substance, which only dents his credibility.)
    Mar 25 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tuesday Morning Turnaround Story A Myth Or Reality? [View article]
    Thank you for your thoughtful answer. The fact that they have no debt is what makes such a turnaround through cap ex seem possible. The high short ratio could keep this from falling as quickly as it might or cause it to pop with any hint of progress in the turn around. Selling near-term calls to capture premiums or to force entry into a short position from a higher price point could be the safer way to go.
    Mar 23 03:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tuesday Morning Turnaround Story A Myth Or Reality? [View article]
    It would seem to me that the big issue to be resolved (or not) is the excessive SG&A. Your "optimistic" model assumes attaining 4% gross operating margin similar to Big Lots. Any ideas why their SG&A is excessive and what it would take to achieve this efficiency? Since we're dreaming, if they could operate as efficiently as TJX, then their the value of TUES could easily be double your projection. It seems to me that the key here is to what degree SG&A can be reigned in.
    Mar 23 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Challenging The Multiple Expansion Narrative [View article]
    Re rrose39, I think we could use a sarcasm font.
    Mar 11 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Vs. European Stocks: Assessing The Relative Contributions To Earnings Growth [View article]
    Very interesting. Thank you.
    Mar 8 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Demographics Really Destiny? [View article]
    invest2b, labor was considerably stronger between 1945 and 1966 than it was between 66 and 82. Labor unions in the US had been in decline since the around 1950. The major problems of the stock market in the 70s was uncertainty and fear, which drove p/e ratios low, after market exuberance had driven ratios to a peak in ~1967.) The earnings growth of the S&P 500 wasn't much different in the 70s versus the 80s, but p/e ratios rose.
    Mar 6 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
203 Comments
240 Likes