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  • Yes, China's Market Is In A Bubble, And No, It Won't End Well  [View article]
    David, to answer your question more directly, I think a bubble is by definition a large unsustainable market rise due to the psychology of momentum or unrealistic expectations. Re this article, is the doubling of SSEC in less than a year a bubble or is the market accurately forecasting? I agree with Hale that it looks like a bubble, but only time will tell.
    May 4, 2015. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, China's Market Is In A Bubble, And No, It Won't End Well  [View article]
    David, it's a matter of definition. Every peak is not a bubble. Cyclical stocks may go up and down with business cycles without ever getting into bubble territory. Historically such stocks would have low p/e during the "boom" phase (high earnings) and high p/e (low profits) during downturns. This is because the stock market would discount the extremes of the business cycle, always looking forward, so no bubbles.
    May 4, 2015. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Will Raise Interest Rates This Year  [View article]
    Nice presentation, so thanks. Looks like good news. It will be difficult for the Fed to raise rates much as Europe has a negative rate.
    May 2, 2015. 01:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We In A Bubble Yet?  [View article]
    The tone of this article doesn't seem to jive with the data presented. The first graph, FCF yield vs 10-yr bond yield, suggests that the bull market has years left to run. What out there suggests that interest rates will rise substantially in the foreseeable future?
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Graphs To Watch In 2015: 1st Quarter Update  [View article]
    Thanks for the nice charts and analysis. As for interpreting #5, the "refinancing index" is not defined and y-axis isn't scaled. Would the zero point (no refinancing) be on this graph, or far below it? In other words, what proportional change are we looking at?
    Apr 27, 2015. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, China's Market Is In A Bubble, And No, It Won't End Well  [View article]
    David, you describe well how normal business cycle can produce bubbles by over-investment. A bubble is a bubble if it bursts, so time will tell on this one.
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Ignore The Clueless Research Firms  [View article]
    "BAC has paid something like $50 billion in litigation claims over the past few years... However, that is 10 cents of EPS (roughly)..."

    $50B divided by 10B shares = $5 per share. Care to check your numbers?
    May 13, 2014. 07:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla, SolarCity, And The Birth Of The Lithium-Based Economy  [View article]
    Just curious, but it would seem to me that a capacitor storing as much energy as a lithium battery could be quite explosive if shorted out internally, as in a collision. What are the thoughts on that?
    May 7, 2014. 09:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Countdown At J.C. Penney, An Opportunity For Speculators  [View article]
    Way to stick your neck out. I applaud you for such bold specifics. Here's hoping that your head doesn't get lopped off.
    May 7, 2014. 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Time To Abandon Ship?  [View article]
    Exclamation points reveal emotion. Ignore emotion. Multiple exclamation points indicate screaming, which is worse.
    May 5, 2014. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cook Does Icahn's Dirty Work At Apple  [View article]
    "Innovation resulting in new product introduction has been in scant supply."

    But new products that will have mass utility and appeal always have been rare, slow to emerge, unpredictable. That is my point. No one can force that, and no one ever has. Apple waits until they have a winner. New products that are market duds are plentiful elsewhere and would be of no benefit to Apple. They would do harm as distractions. Seriously, what new products do you want? Maybe an iChef to cook for you? The iMaid? Great ideas, but...

    I agree that Apple is a mature company. I disagree with the tone of the criticism implying they no longer innovate, which is just silly. There shouldn't be a criticism at all in this regard, simply an understanding of reality.
    Apr 24, 2014. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cook Does Icahn's Dirty Work At Apple  [View article]
    The big error here is to harp on a sense that innovation at Apple has stalled. In contrast, Apple is ever pushing Samsung et al to keep up. About 99% of innovation, by the way, is, and always was, incremental. Until someone else innovates better or comes up with something revolutionary and leaves Apple behind, the criticism is hollow. Google glass anyone? Samsung watch? These products are duds, toys for the nerdiest of nerds, annoying clutter for the rest of us without much market or real value -- just as they were kinda obvious (Google didn't originate the computer screen on glasses.) To find something revolutionary that we actually want and need? That's tough. It will happen again, but no one can will it to happen -- no one.

    I'm with you on welcoming bite-size option plays, though.
    Apr 24, 2014. 12:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Increased Interest Rates, Asking Prices Taking Serious Bite Out Of Home Sales  [View article]
    Thanks. Your concise articles such as this are most informative.

    It's not clear from the graphs though that prices are coming down yet. Note that the only price plot that is coming down for "median sales price of existing homes", but it's plotted as yoy change, and it ends positive, in the high single digits -- so still increasing yoy. So it's hard to tell whether prices at the end of the plot (early 2014) were higher, lower, or about the same as, say, a few months earlier. We'll see. Clearly prices need to pause, at least.
    Apr 24, 2014. 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Drexel Hamilton Correct In Assuming That Micron Technology Could Double?  [View article]
    Yes, I sense a change in sentiment. Past resistance at 24.50 to 25 could now become support (fingers crossed).
    Apr 23, 2014. 08:09 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism?  [View article]
    Ok, here goes. If you find that many people are emotional and clueless about the financial world, they seem no better at coping with the physical world, as the Portland story illustrates. The linked article, while ridiculing the concerns of a little human pee in a reservoir, failed even to mention the far, far, far greater amounts excrement entering it naturally and continuously from birds, fish, and so on. As Earth Day approaches, maybe people should step outside for a moment, relax, look around, learn, enjoy.
    Apr 21, 2014. 08:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment