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  • What Are You Afraid Of? [View article]
    It would seem that the best way to use this approach would be to diversify across the top 15 at least. Are you advising (or backtesting with) selling when the high is reached or after three months, whichever comes first, and holding to three months no matter if the low price is breached?
    Mar 3, 2014. 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Trading Around Earnings [View article]
    Once you or enough players recognize a pattern, it won't quite repeat.
    Mar 3, 2014. 09:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Says To Disregard Macro Opinions? [View instapost]
    Very nice article. Thank you. As for your final sentence, we can be watchful but never really know. It's hard to guess about what is being hidden from view. Too many people will swindle and lie when they feel immune to consequences. All we can do is to try to get out of the way of economic downturns. To do that without being scared away during good times will require ignoring most of the financial "news" and opinion.
    Mar 2, 2014. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intuitive Surgical: Game Over Or Game Just Begun? [View article]
    Gary J, don't just gullibly believe company PR. I have been told by physicians that they don't see much or any net benefit from shorter stays. Anecdotal data, but don't dismiss it. Other costs to the system is training physicians to use it as well as repair and maintenance. My impression is that hospitals have bought in mostly for the advertising to compete with neighboring hospitals, to look "state of the art". But that's pretty much over.
    Mar 1, 2014. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's 'Swing For The Fences' Strategy [View article]
    Sorry, but this made me laugh out loud:
    "The market is respecting Google's attempt to use its cash to grow, and its big bet mentality."

    No. The market is respecting Google's 20% plus growth over the years and its impenetrable moat. If Google's growth was as unclear as Apple's and if it's competition (what competition?) were as fierce, Google would not be respected for its wild swings -- it would be ridiculed.
    Feb 28, 2014. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intuitive Surgical: Game Over Or Game Just Begun? [View article]
    Unfortunately, no. They are more expensive for the procedure itself. You still need the same surgical staff plus the expensive equipment. The only possibility for savings would be if the hospital stay were shorter, and it usually is not.
    Feb 27, 2014. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Leads Notable Short Interest Moves [View article]
    Well, short interest data *is* choppy and lags by up to two weeks -- nothing we can do about that. Just overlay the stock price and things will be more clear, though of course the two don't necessarily correlate. (After all, if they did correlate perfectly, there would be no point to showing both.) But both short interest AND stock price movement reveal how sentiment is changing.
    Feb 27, 2014. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Leads Notable Short Interest Moves [View article]
    But if you had a plot of the stock price on the same graph as the short interest, it would help a lot.
    Feb 27, 2014. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Exuberance Of Disruption [View article]
    Guestvenne: 80% of your 401K in one volatile stock? This is only somewhat reasonable if you are young and your 401k is small. Otherwise, you're really gambling. Remember, there is no such thing as a sure thing.
    Feb 26, 2014. 12:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Not THAT Aggressive [View article]
    Yes, it would seem that wage inflation should be distant worry. However, Matt Busigin suggests that it could be otherwise:
    My quick take of his detailed presentation: He argues that the economy now only needs to add 67,000 jobs per month to keep up with the present growth of the labor market, due to demographic changes. We are adding jobs faster than that, and he argues that the new structural level of unemployment might higher than it used to be, the combination of which could lead to a tight labor market by the end of the year. Any comment?
    Feb 25, 2014. 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Pensions So Messed Up? [View article]
    Wow, drking. For every story like that there are ten untold stories about those who lost much of their savings by investing it themselves. A few people are good, but more likely they are lucky and think they're good. The data are very clear that most individual investors don't keep up with the market averages.
    Feb 18, 2014. 11:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kellogg Is Now Investing To Restore Growth [View article]
    A few decades ago when I was young and immortal, I used to hitchhike across the country. Once I got a ride from the driver of a beverage-delivery truck. He was a young man eager to make his operation a success. I was much amused to learn the dirty details of his business delivering several brands. He said that placement in the store and on the shelves was critical in order for the product to move, and so drivers with competing brands would place their products on shelves where they might not have permission to be and push a competitor's products to the back. These were mostly small convenience stores, where the drivers would not only deliver but help to stock shelves. I waited while he made one quick delivery near the highway. I doubt this has much relevance today, except that it makes me smile at the DSD strategy. I can see how a delivery man might help sales through his interaction with a store manager in some cases, but I don't know that i'd want to increase my delivery costs by 50% to bank on these guys.
    Feb 14, 2014. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Weak Payroll Numbers. January's Employment Report Was Fundamentally Positive [View article]
    Oh, my god. The recent report didn't say that the new health care law will cost 2 million jobs. It said that some (mostly older) workers who would rather not work but are hanging on only for health coverage will be inclined to retire. This can only be a good thing, both for humanity and for the economy. Those jobs won't disappear, as younger workers will take them. Another positive aspect that the report did not mention is that when people are not forced to remain in boring jobs to just to get affordable health care, then some are emboldened to start their own companies. The absence of affordable health care has been a drag on entrepreneurship and innovation in the economy.
    Feb 9, 2014. 11:16 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitulation? Market Sees Biggest Outflows In A Decade [View article]
    The bigger picture shows that interest rates are in a multi-decade downtrend. Sure, they can go up some, but with no signs of wage inflation, rates can stay pretty darn low for a very long time.
    Feb 8, 2014. 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Note To John Hussman [View instapost]
    Love the stories! Made my day.
    Feb 7, 2014. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment