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  • Nu Skin, An American Pyramid In China? [View article]
    Just curious: why can't a class action lawsuit be brought against Nu Skin or Herbalife? The class would be all of the salespeople who were recruited on the deceptive promises that they can make unlimited money, when it's impossible that most of them will. Why wouldn't that work?
    Jan 19 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Earnings Post Mortem [View article]
    Russ, I hope you are right, but in my own field I have seen highly intelligent people make stupid mistakes too many times to remember. There are many reasons for it. Hubris, a strong desire to lead with bold moves, a reluctance to admit to error, and so on.
    Jan 17 04:43 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Postion In Louisiana Pacific [View instapost]
    Yep, that is what Yahoo shows on the main LPX page. But go to the page, "Analyst Estimates", which also shows the past four quarters of actual results as well as future expected earnings, and you will see the numbers that I gave.
    Jan 16 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Postion In Louisiana Pacific [View instapost]
    Can you account for the p/e being 10.8? Per Yahoo I see trailing 12 months closer to a p/e of ~17 and the average expected earning of 2014 giving a forward p/e of ~15. These numbers are close to those for PKB, the building and construction etf, showing a trailing p/e of 19. The prices are anticipating growth but don't give the comfort of a low p/e.
    Jan 15 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Intel Really Up To? [View article]
    "We aren't stupid." Was it Otellini or BK who said that in response to questions about the massive cap ex and capacity expansion -- it was a while back; memory fails me. Well, what if they were?
    Jan 15 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Is Not Finished With Data Centers [View article]
    "The last thing Intel would want to do is to pull this off gradually and in public view. They have a need to demoralize any potential competition. That means secrecy."

    Good thing no one reads these pages but us. #;-)
    Jan 13 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Behold A Pale Horse [View article]
    RM-- Please don't take my tongue-in-cheek question as sarcasm -- I really am having a hard time imagining how your group collects the data. I was not questioning your integrity or motivations at all; I understand why you write and appreciate your effort and style. Personally, I have sold near/in-the-money calls 1-2 weeks out when I have sensed that the stock is near a short-term peak, either just out of the money or just in-the-money, as a way of going short with a cushion. As you say, acting upon a trade takes thought plus emotion, and I was just too busy for this one. As for your call that JCP has "very little chance" to survive, it is a stronger prediction than most writers have been making.
    Jan 9 09:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Behold A Pale Horse [View article]
    Retail Maven, you have me curious about two things. How exactly were the data collected? Guys in dark glasses with sharp eyes and keen memories surreptitiously hovering near checkouts at numerous stores across the nation? Second, since you arrived at this opinion well before the recent announcement, why weren't you short? I almost sold the 9 calls last week as the stock was faltering there but just missed out.
    Jan 8 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Worth $6 If It Recaptures 75% Of Lost Market Share [View article]
    For KSS, EV/EBITDA is 6.03. For M (Macy's) it is 6.78. Why do you expect it to go much higher for JCP. Short covering?
    Jan 2 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Does The Unthinkable [View article]
    Vertical integration isn't my meme, it's Ashraf's. He hasn't explained it.
    Jan 2 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Does The Unthinkable [View article]
    That is good, but irrelevant to the question as to the issue of vertical integration.
    Jan 1 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Does The Unthinkable [View article]
    Ashraf, as you have written often: "Intel is able to essentially "keep" the foundry margin (so at the same selling price and die size, Intel's chip should have a significant gross margin advantage)."

    Where is the significant gross margin advantage? They must pay for the R&D for design just the same as a MediaTek or anyone, and they have the R&D, capital costs, and operational costs of the foundry. It's not as if vertical integration spares any of the most substantial costs for design or manufacturing. What vertical integration may allow is to run one part of the operation at cost or at a loss for a while to gain advantage, but that hurts the overall margin. I think this is what leads to vertical integration when it occurs.
    Jan 1 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Lining On The Horizon For J.C. Penney Company, But Will It Last? [View article]
    Thanks for volunteering. That sounds like a plan. When can we expect your article?
    Dec 24 02:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Fiber Vs. AT&T GigaPower: The Battle For High-Speed Internet [View article]
    "In select cities where Google Fiber is being launched, I think it will be successful. It's much more difficult to determine if that success will translate into profits."

    How do you define success then? And what is Google's goal long-term?
    Dec 17 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Process Has Begun [View article]
    "The bigger injustice, if you want to use that term, is that Intel gets a similar valuation to Apple. Intel has had two disappointing years in a row, with declining revenues and plunging earnings."

    Well the market senses that Intel could be at or near a bottom in revs and earnings. It worries that Apple might be near a top, despite its continuing growth. And Intel has a higher dividend yield.
    Dec 17 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment