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  • Bank Of America: Ignore The Clueless Research Firms [View article]
    "BAC has paid something like $50 billion in litigation claims over the past few years... However, that is 10 cents of EPS (roughly)..."

    $50B divided by 10B shares = $5 per share. Care to check your numbers?
    May 13, 2014. 07:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism? [View article]
    Ok, here goes. If you find that many people are emotional and clueless about the financial world, they seem no better at coping with the physical world, as the Portland story illustrates. The linked article, while ridiculing the concerns of a little human pee in a reservoir, failed even to mention the far, far, far greater amounts excrement entering it naturally and continuously from birds, fish, and so on. As Earth Day approaches, maybe people should step outside for a moment, relax, look around, learn, enjoy.
    Apr 21, 2014. 08:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: What If PC Units Did A U-Turn In The First Quarter? [View article]
    oops, missed inserting the attribution:
    Apr 3, 2014. 01:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Duration Risk: Why 'Tapering' Is A Mirage And The Fed May Be Loosening Instead [View article]
    Enlightening. Thank you.
    Apr 2, 2014. 06:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tuesday Morning Turnaround Story A Myth Or Reality? [View article]
    Thank you for your thoughtful answer. The fact that they have no debt is what makes such a turnaround through cap ex seem possible. The high short ratio could keep this from falling as quickly as it might or cause it to pop with any hint of progress in the turn around. Selling near-term calls to capture premiums or to force entry into a short position from a higher price point could be the safer way to go.
    Mar 23, 2014. 03:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Challenging The Multiple Expansion Narrative [View article]
    Re rrose39, I think we could use a sarcasm font.
    Mar 11, 2014. 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Trading Around Earnings [View article]
    Once you or enough players recognize a pattern, it won't quite repeat.
    Mar 3, 2014. 09:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Pensions So Messed Up? [View article]
    Wow, drking. For every story like that there are ten untold stories about those who lost much of their savings by investing it themselves. A few people are good, but more likely they are lucky and think they're good. The data are very clear that most individual investors don't keep up with the market averages.
    Feb 18, 2014. 11:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kellogg Is Now Investing To Restore Growth [View article]
    A few decades ago when I was young and immortal, I used to hitchhike across the country. Once I got a ride from the driver of a beverage-delivery truck. He was a young man eager to make his operation a success. I was much amused to learn the dirty details of his business delivering several brands. He said that placement in the store and on the shelves was critical in order for the product to move, and so drivers with competing brands would place their products on shelves where they might not have permission to be and push a competitor's products to the back. These were mostly small convenience stores, where the drivers would not only deliver but help to stock shelves. I waited while he made one quick delivery near the highway. I doubt this has much relevance today, except that it makes me smile at the DSD strategy. I can see how a delivery man might help sales through his interaction with a store manager in some cases, but I don't know that i'd want to increase my delivery costs by 50% to bank on these guys.
    Feb 14, 2014. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Apple And Bought Yahoo [View article]
    Yahoo seems to be getting worse with the changes. Yahoo email got so bad, with flashing ads that make it impossible to read a message without going batty, that i would have dropped it after 15 years except that Apple's email program will download the messages without me having to visit the site. Yahoo Sports, which had been my default, is now buggy and less useable, plus, Yahoo fired their best writers and eliminated their entertaining sports video, so now I hardly use Yahoo Sports. My fantasy football league would not even consider Yahoo because several of us had seen how buggy their pages can be. Their MyYahoo page doesn't work as well now that they have revamped it, like the Sports pages, clearly aiming at mobile. I still use Yahoo Finance, but that's about it. So sure, mobile use should be up, and they did need to make changes, but overall it doesn't look promising for this user.
    Feb 3, 2014. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Behold A Pale Horse [View article]
    RM-- Please don't take my tongue-in-cheek question as sarcasm -- I really am having a hard time imagining how your group collects the data. I was not questioning your integrity or motivations at all; I understand why you write and appreciate your effort and style. Personally, I have sold near/in-the-money calls 1-2 weeks out when I have sensed that the stock is near a short-term peak, either just out of the money or just in-the-money, as a way of going short with a cushion. As you say, acting upon a trade takes thought plus emotion, and I was just too busy for this one. As for your call that JCP has "very little chance" to survive, it is a stronger prediction than most writers have been making.
    Jan 9, 2014. 09:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Does The Unthinkable [View article]
    Ashraf, as you have written often: "Intel is able to essentially "keep" the foundry margin (so at the same selling price and die size, Intel's chip should have a significant gross margin advantage)."

    Where is the significant gross margin advantage? They must pay for the R&D for design just the same as a MediaTek or anyone, and they have the R&D, capital costs, and operational costs of the foundry. It's not as if vertical integration spares any of the most substantial costs for design or manufacturing. What vertical integration may allow is to run one part of the operation at cost or at a loss for a while to gain advantage, but that hurts the overall margin. I think this is what leads to vertical integration when it occurs.
    Jan 1, 2014. 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Lining On The Horizon For J.C. Penney Company, But Will It Last? [View article]
    Thanks for volunteering. That sounds like a plan. When can we expect your article?
    Dec 24, 2013. 02:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Losing My Religion: How I Unlearned Efficient Markets Folly [View article]
    So, Jason, if i may paraphrase your writing (with which i agree): The market is more efficient than most individual stock pickers. The market is indeed efficient at diminishing the wealth of average investors who try to pick stocks.
    Dec 4, 2013. 11:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Just Got A Lot More Dangerous: Buy Oil Now [View article]
    "There was a peaceful way to get rid of [Syria's chemical weapons] through Syria and Iran", but Obama (and about four presidents before him) was "too inept to work that out"? Are you competing for the most arrogant blogger in the universe or something?

    So you are imagining that Iran is now MORE likely to build nukes after they have agreed to very intrusive monitoring? And before agreeing to the monitoring, they were doing what, only working half-seriously? Do you really think that if we maintained sanctions for several more years without any agreement that Iran would not have built nuclear weapons by then? Why wouldn't they? We achieved an opening; let's see how it looks in 6 months.

    Sanctions are our only tool. We won't invade Iran, and neither will Israel. If negotiations fail, we will be back to sanctions, and in the end Iran will build bombs if it wants to sanctions or not. And the Saudis will buy them from Pakistan if they want to. This would not be good, but all we can do is to apply political and economic pressure, as we have done.
    Nov 28, 2013. 09:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment