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  • The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
    PompFrog: Would you care to share the SA writers whom you have found to be competent? Re macro issues, I have a very short list myself. Thanks in advance.

    Just an aside: I do not think that some of the -- how do I put this -- well, delusional, over-confident or politically-driven authors on SA are lazy. But it does appear that sentiment and biases shape analysis for too many, as your criticism implies. What are the odds of the forecast of this article panning out, worldwide currency system and all? If options were sold on it, I wouldn't pay one cent.
    May 15 09:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke The Washington Super-Whale, Hedge Fundies And The Widowmaker [View article]
    Good article. Nice account of the London Whale fiasco. Is it right, though, to pin monetary policy entirely on Bernanke? Are the rest of the FR governors mere puppets under his control? I understand that Fed policy haters are prone to portray it thusly, because it's better narrative to attack one man than to counter a consensus of opinion that is not of one's liking.
    May 12 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why S&P 500 At 1875 By 2014 Is Not Impossible [View article]
    Yeah, what aarc said! Bartpr, what's substantial about now, is that the economy is still growing, unemployment is still declining, housing is recovering, the odds of a recession are very low (barring a black swan), inflation is low, interest rates are low, etc. and so on. And the 6 reasons in the article for stocks to be the investment of choice. What's substantial is that there is growth, slow but steady, and the fear that gripped markets in the springs of 2011 and 2012 hasn't shown up this spring. Oh something surely will come along to cause a 5%-15% "correction" sooner or later; that's normal.
    May 8 05:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Non-Decline And Fall Of Apple [View article]
    Of course it has a chance. Will it, and if so, when? No one knows. Don't listen to pretenders.
    Mar 13 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorry Bears, We're In A Secular Bull Market [View article]
    When didn't we have to wait in line? Memory is so selective. I remember those days when you had to guess to pick the skilled cashier (maybe the longest line?), the one who could punch in the digits manually at an amazing speed without ever an error. Get in a short line waiting for a rookie cashier, and oh-oh. Things have changed, but I think we wait a lot less nowadays.
    Feb 23 10:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smart Investors Should Ignore The Gimmick Of Intel Share Buybacks [View article]
    When the interest on the debt is less than the dividends they would otherwise pay on the shares that the debt eliminates, how is that insane? It's just the smart thing to do.
    Dec 19 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    Jackal1956 has quoted a passage from a speech given by Pres. Theodore Roosevelt, titled "Citizenship in a Republic." More recently Pres. Nixon borrowed the passage, both in his victory address in 1968 and his resignation speech in 1974.
    Apr 8 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Updates Following Q2 Earnings [View article]
    -As to your first suggestion, it would not be wise to have a popularity contest on the accuracy of an article. 1000 "like" votes mean nothing in the face of a single bit of actual data proving otherwise.
    -I too have wished that every article included date of its submission at the top, as well as its date of posting. Until SA sees the wisdom of providing this bit of info, at least the author can provide it in the first comment.
    -Please keep writing.
    Apr 8 02:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Morgan Stanley's Veeva Upgrade A Belated April Fools Prank? [View article]
    They just placed a large secondary offering. I don't want to say that they feel obliged to boost the stock now for a while, but it seems to be the norm that stocks find support for several weeks following a secondary offering. Years ago a broker once told me, while pawning a secondary offering, that I could expect a 15-20% gain in the next two months or so. That was exactly what happened, after which the stock sagged to 20% below the price of the secondary offering. I've seen the same happen with many other stocks. I covered my short calls yesterday, before an investor conference today and earnings in a few days, and expect to short again.
    Apr 2 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I don't think he's correct. If he didn't sign up, he wasn't counted. If he did sign up, he'll receive bills soon and then if he doesn't want to pay, he'll be dunned.
    Apr 2 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Breadth Continues To Wane And Warn [View article]
    Well, there's more than one way to look at it. Going by your graph, eyeballing it, it appears that the 70% mark, for the fraction of stocks above their 200 dma, is about the average for this bull market that began in 2009. Given that stocks rose so strongly in 2013, it is hardly a surprise that a good fraction of stocks would take breathers or pull back. I would not say that "fewer and fewer" stocks are participating in the bull market at this point.
    Apr 1 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tuesday Morning Turnaround Story A Myth Or Reality? [View article]
    It would seem to me that the big issue to be resolved (or not) is the excessive SG&A. Your "optimistic" model assumes attaining 4% gross operating margin similar to Big Lots. Any ideas why their SG&A is excessive and what it would take to achieve this efficiency? Since we're dreaming, if they could operate as efficiently as TJX, then their the value of TUES could easily be double your projection. It seems to me that the key here is to what degree SG&A can be reigned in.
    Mar 23 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Demographics Really Destiny? [View article]
    invest2b, labor was considerably stronger between 1945 and 1966 than it was between 66 and 82. Labor unions in the US had been in decline since the around 1950. The major problems of the stock market in the 70s was uncertainty and fear, which drove p/e ratios low, after market exuberance had driven ratios to a peak in ~1967.) The earnings growth of the S&P 500 wasn't much different in the 70s versus the 80s, but p/e ratios rose.
    Mar 6 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are You Afraid Of? [View article]
    It would seem that the best way to use this approach would be to diversify across the top 15 at least. Are you advising (or backtesting with) selling when the high is reached or after three months, whichever comes first, and holding to three months no matter if the low price is breached?
    Mar 3 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Says To Disregard Macro Opinions? [View instapost]
    Very nice article. Thank you. As for your final sentence, we can be watchful but never really know. It's hard to guess about what is being hidden from view. Too many people will swindle and lie when they feel immune to consequences. All we can do is to try to get out of the way of economic downturns. To do that without being scared away during good times will require ignoring most of the financial "news" and opinion.
    Mar 2 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment