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  • Is Morgan Stanley's Veeva Upgrade A Belated April Fools Prank? [View article]
    They just placed a large secondary offering. I don't want to say that they feel obliged to boost the stock now for a while, but it seems to be the norm that stocks find support for several weeks following a secondary offering. Years ago a broker once told me, while pawning a secondary offering, that I could expect a 15-20% gain in the next two months or so. That was exactly what happened, after which the stock sagged to 20% below the price of the secondary offering. I've seen the same happen with many other stocks. I covered my short calls yesterday, before an investor conference today and earnings in a few days, and expect to short again.
    Apr 2, 2014. 11:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I don't think he's correct. If he didn't sign up, he wasn't counted. If he did sign up, he'll receive bills soon and then if he doesn't want to pay, he'll be dunned.
    Apr 2, 2014. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Breadth Continues To Wane And Warn [View article]
    Well, there's more than one way to look at it. Going by your graph, eyeballing it, it appears that the 70% mark, for the fraction of stocks above their 200 dma, is about the average for this bull market that began in 2009. Given that stocks rose so strongly in 2013, it is hardly a surprise that a good fraction of stocks would take breathers or pull back. I would not say that "fewer and fewer" stocks are participating in the bull market at this point.
    Apr 1, 2014. 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Tuesday Morning Turnaround Story A Myth Or Reality? [View article]
    It would seem to me that the big issue to be resolved (or not) is the excessive SG&A. Your "optimistic" model assumes attaining 4% gross operating margin similar to Big Lots. Any ideas why their SG&A is excessive and what it would take to achieve this efficiency? Since we're dreaming, if they could operate as efficiently as TJX, then their the value of TUES could easily be double your projection. It seems to me that the key here is to what degree SG&A can be reigned in.
    Mar 23, 2014. 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Demographics Really Destiny? [View article]
    invest2b, labor was considerably stronger between 1945 and 1966 than it was between 66 and 82. Labor unions in the US had been in decline since the around 1950. The major problems of the stock market in the 70s was uncertainty and fear, which drove p/e ratios low, after market exuberance had driven ratios to a peak in ~1967.) The earnings growth of the S&P 500 wasn't much different in the 70s versus the 80s, but p/e ratios rose.
    Mar 6, 2014. 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are You Afraid Of? [View article]
    It would seem that the best way to use this approach would be to diversify across the top 15 at least. Are you advising (or backtesting with) selling when the high is reached or after three months, whichever comes first, and holding to three months no matter if the low price is breached?
    Mar 3, 2014. 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Says To Disregard Macro Opinions? [View instapost]
    Very nice article. Thank you. As for your final sentence, we can be watchful but never really know. It's hard to guess about what is being hidden from view. Too many people will swindle and lie when they feel immune to consequences. All we can do is to try to get out of the way of economic downturns. To do that without being scared away during good times will require ignoring most of the financial "news" and opinion.
    Mar 2, 2014. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's 'Swing For The Fences' Strategy [View article]
    Sorry, but this made me laugh out loud:
    "The market is respecting Google's attempt to use its cash to grow, and its big bet mentality."

    No. The market is respecting Google's 20% plus growth over the years and its impenetrable moat. If Google's growth was as unclear as Apple's and if it's competition (what competition?) were as fierce, Google would not be respected for its wild swings -- it would be ridiculed.
    Feb 28, 2014. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Exuberance Of Disruption [View article]
    Guestvenne: 80% of your 401K in one volatile stock? This is only somewhat reasonable if you are young and your 401k is small. Otherwise, you're really gambling. Remember, there is no such thing as a sure thing.
    Feb 26, 2014. 12:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitulation? Market Sees Biggest Outflows In A Decade [View article]
    The bigger picture shows that interest rates are in a multi-decade downtrend. Sure, they can go up some, but with no signs of wage inflation, rates can stay pretty darn low for a very long time.
    Feb 8, 2014. 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Note To John Hussman [View instapost]
    Very amusing, and very nicely written. I think you are right about people like Hussman -- some rigid thinking (focusing on what "should" be rather than endeavoring to learn what is), curmudgeonly righteousness (the market has sinned and must be punished), and some wishful thinking, like the boy with his airplane of sticks. By the way, do you know what became of the kid? I'm long SPY, too.
    Feb 7, 2014. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Does The Unthinkable [View article]
    Vertical integration isn't my meme, it's Ashraf's. He hasn't explained it.
    Jan 2, 2014. 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Does The Unthinkable [View article]
    That is good, but irrelevant to the question as to the issue of vertical integration.
    Jan 1, 2014. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For An End To The Tapering Obsession? [View article]
    I agree. But you should have given yourself the Silver Bullet Award for the week for debunking the Morgan Stanley chart on forward earnings. That is important, valuable work. Or you could have at least changed your SA photo for the week to one where you were wearing a white hat ten-gallon hat, a black mask over your eyes, and a badge that looks like the Texaco emblem. Missed opportunity.
    Dec 9, 2013. 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Achilles Heel - Is It Fatal ? [View article]
    Good article. Thanks.
    Dec 9, 2013. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment