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BTNelson33

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  • Wells Fargo's defense of Linn Energy (LINE -6.5%) and LinnCo (LNCO -6.6%) following Barron's negative article has lifted shares a bit from earlier lows. Wells considers today's selloff a buying opportunity, as the article merely "brings up old points of contention"; the firm continues to believe LINE’s distribution is secure and poised to grow at a mid-single-digit annual pace over the next five years. [View news story]
    I'd like to see the SEC in on this case. Too much of a coincidence that this article was perfectly timed with ex-dividend. All rise!!!!!
    May 6 03:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toyota (TM) thinks it can soar past the 10M mark in annual sales after it launches major changes to product development and becomes more aggressive in global marketing. An expansive new R&D strategy will take several years to feed down into new models, but will improve efficiencies by 20% to 30% along the way, according to execs. [View news story]
    Toyota Management must successfully deal with it's China issue to achieve this objective. If the Yen continues to weaken, this will help fund their new RD strategy. Commodity price deflation has to be a big positive as well. Toyota doesn't have healthcare/pension liabilities like Ford, GM and Chrysler.
    Apr 29 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Abenomics Working? [View article]
    BOJ policy hasn't been given enough time to work. It's flawed thinking to compare CPI versus expectations. The Japanese economy has been in bade shape for the last 20+ years - 6 months of stimulus isn't enough time to evaluate this strategy. Japan is an export driven economy - why should Japan take the negative side of the carry trade? It makes more sense for Japan to stimulate than the US. The Japanese economy will improve when Toyota and Honda, etc can knock $1,600-$5,000 dollars off the manufacturing costs of their cars.
    Apr 27 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Apple From An Absolute And Relative Value Standpoint [View article]
    The real test for Tim Cook is to bring a new innovative product with a totally new revenue stream to market. He has not done this to date. That is what is missing. There are many opportunities and Apple can use their software/hardware expertise to their advantage. I'm looking for an a la-cart television product. I'm also looking for being able to pay for goods and services with my smartphone. Both are apparently on the development block at Apple. The idea of buying LEAPS helps provide leverage and a longer term investment perspective. I'm not in favor of buying the next "hot" tech company and think Apple can integrate products into Apple's model.
    Apr 13 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer, Bristol-Myers, Johnson And Johnson: Do They Have The Next Plavix, Or Vioxx? [View article]
    Interesting article Bio Matt. A few things to contemplate: 1) Success in the anti-coagulation market will best be determined by which company provides the best clinical data to physicians/Pharm D's. There is a plethora of data for coumadin use and as you mentioned - pennies per day. Hospital Pharm D's will keep a lid on the growth of these new products and Insurance company's will challeneg reimbursement in favor of coumadin. There is a fine line between bleeding and clotting. 2) Anti-coacoagulation is the most frequently litigated area of medicine. Errors are usually fatal. INR's can be both a blessing and a curse. The new oral anticoagulants can only be measured by pharmacokinetics - elimination and how they work within the coagulation cascade. Awards and settlements will occur - but are not likely to be Vioxx style financial issues.
    3) BI enjoyed a year jump start on JNJ in AFib stroke prevention market. Xarelto is making major progress against Pradaxa. BI sales/marketing is weak and will get rolled when BMS/Pfizer hit the street. JNJ has the best strategy of increased indications - but can sales/marketing execute? Pfizer's marketing prowess is the key to success in this equation. BMS and Plavix should not factor into success or failure. Plavix enjoyed major success due to an explosion of stents and drug eluding stents - it was the stent companies working with interventional cardiologists who made Plavix. BMS and Sanofi didn't have a clue how to sell Plavix.
    4) Even though BMS/Pfizer will be the last to launch - my option is Pfizer will be the reason Eliquis will win. Pfizer knows how to successfully sell in the hospital market. Pfizer is the best investment in the group.
    Feb 2 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: What To Look For Beyond The Numbers [View article]
    jguy - so now we compare Apple to Sony. Please, give me a break! A couple of observations regarding this article: 1) iPhone 5 figures are tough to gauge because of the increased roll out schedule. Apple didn't count sales until the customer took delivery. Wasn't this one of the big issues in 4Q? 2) iPhone 5 sales launched in China in December vs. late January 2012. This also creates a much different year over year comparison. 3) Analysts should be able to calculate iPad mini vs full scale iPad sales based on margins.

    Hedge fund managers have beaten down Apple only to bid it back up again. Keep an eye on iMac developments as innovative technology from iMac usually translates into advancements in Apple's consumer electronics products.
    Jan 21 10:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Is A Buy Below $40 [View article]
    Deepvoice - Your understanding of Linn as an MLP is a bit off. Under the terms of an MLP - the company must pay distributions based on it's cash flow. Linn Energy yields a consistent 8% at current prices and it has purchased high valued producing properties at lower prices, for example - BP had to unload assets and Linn Management got an excellent deal. I have two concerns: Upcoming negative EPA pressure on tracking and potential tax changes to MLP's.
    Linn has been amazingly stable over the two years I've held it. I would not hesitate to write covered calls 4-6 months out on LNCO.
    Jan 4 08:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From A Win-Win Situation [View article]
    Apple shorts have been historically hurt. I do agree with your overall "covered call" strategy. The US Government has become increasingly jealous of European government officials. This will create a great opportunity for short term - headline driven investment opportunities.
    Dec 28 07:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insider Monkey's Jake Mann takes a look at how Apple (AAPL -1.1%) invests its $120B in liquid assets. "Corporate securities" (either debt or equities) made up $46.3B of the total at the end of FY12, treasuries made up $20.1B, and U.S. agency securities $19.5B. Another $11.9B was invested in mortgage and asset-backed securities, $5.6B in muni bonds, and $5.5B in foreign government debt. Apple's treasury holdings rose 87.9% Y/Y, easily surpassing the 49% increase seen in its asset base (exc. cash). Corporate securities rose 31.5%. [View news story]
    As a shareholder I'm greatful that Apple management doesn't rush into reckless spending. Perhaps Apple's cash on hand will be used to set up a TV model?
    Dec 28 06:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Fire Sale: Part 2 - The Rocket Blast [View article]
    This has been an extremely difficult year to analyze/forecast Apple: iPhone 5, iPad mini, Mac launches + fiscal cliff issues + capital gains + what is Apple's next big product? Once an investor or money manager sells Apple to lock in cap gains - why would they get back in ahead of a deal in Washington DC? Too much uncertainty. I believe in the Apple "slingshot" effect and have profited from it - but it is hard to have faith in our elected politicians. Rome was not destroyed by the Barbarians on the outside - Rome was detroyed by the Barbarians on the inside!
    Dec 26 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Though many expected e-book prices to plummet after the DOJ coaxed top publishers to allow Amazon (AMZN), Barnes & Noble (BKS), and others to set their own prices, the NYT observes the impact of the DOJ settlement on publishers has thus far been muted. E-book prices haven't fallen "as broadly or drastically as anticipated," and the market's overall growth has slowed down. "At any given time about a third of e-book users haven’t bought a single title in the last 12 months," says industry analyst Michael Norris. [View news story]
    Why read a book when you can watch television or go to the movies?
    Dec 26 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lawmakers in the U.S. see a quick-patch solution as the best hope of averting the automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to hit on January 1. Over the weekend the blame game was in full cycle while key Senators hit the talk TV circuit. The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law extending tax cuts for those making $250K or less. [View news story]
    You are correct - but a Canadian can lose their life waiting for a lifesaving operation. Oh, that's right - they can go to the USA for the operation!
    Dec 24 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lawmakers in the U.S. see a quick-patch solution as the best hope of averting the automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to hit on January 1. Over the weekend the blame game was in full cycle while key Senators hit the talk TV circuit. The last word from President Obama is that he would immediately sign a bill into law extending tax cuts for those making $250K or less. [View news story]
    Rome was not destroyed by the Barbarians on the outside. Rome was destroyed by the Barbarians on the inside ....
    Dec 24 01:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Worrisome About Apple [View article]
    Paul, I really appreciate your thought provoking articles. What is your understanding of WalMart going after AT&T, Verizon and Sprint? Perhaps the iPhone discounting is more "shared" by WalMart/Apple than anyone knows? WalMart offers a plan that "shares" AT&T cell towers at roughly a 40% discount off AT&T's contract price. By offering a competitive iPhone price vs. AT&T and Verizon - WalMart offers an extremely attractive service contract. This could explain how WalMart could "eat" a larger percentage of the iPhone discount than one would think. Your thoughts?
    Dec 21 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is A Buy Before Earnings [View article]
    Apple's 1Q 2013 earnings period is shaping up very similar to 1Q 2012. Last year the media was questioning Tim Cooke and his qualifications to replace Steve Jobs. The media criticized Cooke to no end for coming late with iPhone 4S. Analysts missed projections by 7 Billion dollars. The largest dollar volume beat by any company in history! Although for different reasons - the media continues to criticize Cooke. iPhone 5 expectations were unbelievably high. So Apple didn't sell 10 million phones the first weekend? Apple is going to sell 40-50 million i5's in the 1Q. I read that Apple makes $.23 per million phones. That is $11.50 by my calculations for just the iPhone 5 alone. Apple remains the greatest managed US company. I'm really getting tired of CNBC. So what is so great about GE/Comcast?
    Dec 21 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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