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dunwoody_joe

dunwoody_joe
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  • The Most Intriguing Thing About Bank Of America's Dividend Hike [View article]
    "Quibbling over a penny or two in the dividend seems more like posturing rather than concern about whether Bank of America can actually afford it."

    True enough! The Government wants to exercise its control over BAC for the benefit of Wall Street and Main Street. Mostly theatrics but little anyone can do.

    Over time, BAC will find it's natural course unaffected by the heavy hand of the government. And it will be upward. Long BAC stock and BAC warrants--but it seems to me that the A warrants are a screaming buy.
    Mar 27 06:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Go Home, Goldman Sachs, You're Drunk [View article]
    I think it would be very interesting if the SEC made a rule that once a brokerage made a downgrade of a company stock, they were barred from buying for some period (say 3-6 months) including trading the derivatives.

    Or the opposite (barred from selling for 3-6 months after an upgrade).

    Seems like that might snuff out some of chicanery and inject some investor confidence in the system--all at the same time!
    Mar 24 11:47 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Go Home, Goldman Sachs, You're Drunk [View article]
    There are a lot of ways to make money in the market. There is the "old fashion way" and then there is the "Goldman way".

    This is classic Goldman: 1. Insert doubt to shake the bushes; 2. Pick up shares at the expense of their clients (the "Muppets") and others; 3. When satisfied, reverse the call, watch the shares move higher and sell the shares back to the Muppets. 4. Wash, rinse, repeat!

    There is an antidote: Do the opposite!

    See y'all at 20.
    Mar 24 08:13 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HTA's Recipe For Healthy Returns - Strong Operating Fundamentals Plus A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    So, if I am a holder of class B shares that convert after the market close on November 7, I have a couple of realistic options:

    1. Sell my shares on the open market on 11/8 and thereafter, incurring probable tax liability in 2013. I may do this if I need the money, have some carry forward losses to cover my capital gains or think that shares will be under greater pressure later on.
    2. Hold my shares until January 2014 and then sell, thereby pushing off the tax due into next year. I'd do this if I am focused on my tax burden and think that waiting will not adversely impact my total take. I also would then qualify for the next dividend payment.
    3. Hold my shares long term, pocket my dividends and ride HTA into the future.

    So, I'll guess that a fair number of class B holders will start selling in January to take advantage of #2, although some will sell right away (option #1). So my expectation is that selling volume picks up on Friday driving the price downward . I expect that the price will stabilize through year's end, and then selling pressure will intensify in early January.

    I'm waiting until January to add more HTA shares.
    Nov 6 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 80 Year Prediction On 3D Printing And Robotics [View article]
    Great comments Frastick, I agree wholeheartedly. One thing I know for certain about 80 years from today--I won't be around!

    As for the medical applications of 3-D printing, to my mind, it is the ideal place for additive technology. Customized, just-in-time replacement parts made locally of titanium or an exotic alloy (stronger and lighter) seems logical. Cheaper, faster, better.That is what attracted me to Arcam AB.

    Have you looked at Arcam AB? Love to hear your thoughts.
    Oct 17 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 80 Year Prediction On 3D Printing And Robotics [View article]
    Nice review on the potential growth path of 3-D printing industry, I completely agree with your projections and trajectory.

    However, I think you missed the best company of all--Arcam AB (AMAVF). A Swedish company with a patent moat, that is growing top line revenue fast, cash flow positive, carries no debt, with a stable of Fortune 500 customers (like Boeing, GE, etc), plenty of independent research on the technology, focused and conservatively managed, and is MAKING MONEY NOW! Plus, nice earnings growth expected to be announced next week. Have you looked at Arcam AB?
    Oct 10 07:11 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ExOne And Arcam: A Fundamental Tale Of 2 3-D Printing Companies [View article]
    Nice article, thanks.

    Do a Google Scholar literature search on Arcam AB and you will be impressed with the depth and breadth of papers involving the Arcam systems from some of the leading material research engineers in the world. Frankly, it's stunning.

    Arcam has the science, and is catching the 3D printing wave at just the right time. Plus, they are running their business well. It is very unusual to find all three aspects together at this stage of a company's development.

    Arcam is still under-followed in the US, for now. But that will change soon.
    Aug 7 02:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arcam AB: Small 3-D Printing Company With Big Growth Projections [View article]
    Slow, steady and reliable...the Swedish way!

    If Arcam AB was an America company list on one of the major exchanges, it would be all the rage with a market cap at least 3x its present size. If one does a Google Scholar search of "Arcam AB" you can see the depth of the research utilizing Arcam printers--all with impressive results. The shift over to the business side--4 Million shares, positive earnings, backlog of orders, in the industry sweet spot of a growing technology.

    Nice article, thanks. But the word will soon be out on Arcam AB. If they can ward off the suitors, they'll be huge!
    Jul 23 05:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Devon's Attempt To Create Shareholder Value [View article]
    Whether the market likes it or not, spinning off an MLP is a value- adding maneuver for DVN. I expect that DVN will be monetizing certain assets by dropping them down into this tax-efficient MLP at favorable terms. In essence, creating a new balance sheet and a secondary access point to the capital markets.

    Not flashy, nor first...but likely value creating.
    Jun 8 06:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Management: A Cheaper Way To Own Kinder Morgan Partners [View article]
    I long ago made the choice to stay with KMR (and more recently KMI too) over KMP for a number of reasons outlined elsewhere. It has worked out fabulously for me and I doubt if any relative change in the discount with KMP would change my mind. So no, I don't think KMP would be a more attractive choice if it was mildly discounted to KMR (plus I don't see that switch happening). But for the right amount of discount, I would have to reassess!

    My comments above are more about observing what appears to be a fairly regular (and becoming predictable) pattern with KMR around ex-dividend time. This is not about the relative difference between KMR/KMP at all, but rather how to play KMR over the course of 2-3 weeks, repeatable 4 times/year to squeeze out some extra alpha with little risk. I think that can be done with option strategies.

    Perhaps the opportunity will go away soon, or be arbitraged away, but for now it seems that there might be some money to be made playing the pattern. This particular quarterly "observation" is has not fully run its course yet, but it is looking like it may hold again, which will be 8 out of the last 10 quarters.

    DJ
    Apr 26 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Just About Everything Most Investors Do Is Wrong [View article]
    I sure did read the article Dave, but it seems you need your morning coffee (or maybe a little less).

    50 years ago KO, MCD, WMT, PG were all a little less mature than they are today. Of course I can choose those and put them away, and my heirs will do fine. But I was simply asking whether people have candidates that are a bit earlier in their growth paths than the fully mature ones you suggest.

    But thanks for the lesson!
    Apr 26 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Management: A Cheaper Way To Own Kinder Morgan Partners [View article]
    Sumflow,

    The KMR "award price" is $88.02, which does appear to be a good price when measured against the closing price on the day before ex-div (88.02/90.23= 2.45% discount).

    However, the pattern I mentioned in my post above seems about to play out again. The real question is how will that award price look in relation to the KMR stock price on the paid date of 5/15. If history is any guide, I expect that on 5/15, the stock price of KMR on the open market will be around $85-86.

    I think that this difference can be arbitraged relatively consistently to goose the overall KMR annual return some 4-8%.

    Apr 26 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Just About Everything Most Investors Do Is Wrong [View article]
    I think Whitehead1 has a great point, and maybe a topic for a future article.

    Perhaps an article that looks across today's environment and lists some companies that are potential buy and holds over the next 30 years. A sort of time capsule of which will be the KO or MCD of the distant tomorrow.

    I'd love to see what everyone thinks!
    Apr 26 06:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's Road To A Utility-Like Yield [View article]
    I agree with your comments. I will add that it always helps me to keep things simple when looking at an issue. So when I think about "capital return" proposition for BAC, I want to see the best long-term capital allocation:

    1. BAC book value per share around: $20.30
    2. BAC share price at $11.72, or a 57.7% discount
    3. Major competitors trading near BV or above.

    Simple conclusion: Buyback shares with both fists with every dollar available for "capital return."

    I can wait until next year, or longer to get my dividends, which should actually be higher since the share base should have diminished by about 450M shares. There are few times that the market gives a clear "half-off sale."

    Disclosure: I am long BAC and BACWSA
    Apr 23 06:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yum! Buyback Levitates Shares, But Chicken Is Off The Menu In China [View article]
    Official word from Bejing:
    http://reut.rs/XJtaVZ

    I think you are spot on...there is money to be made in the coming hysteria!
    Apr 13 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
25 Comments
51 Likes