Individual investor focused upon a limited number of diversified stocks. Seeks stocks selling below fair value; favors dividend growth. Advocates fundamental investment analysis, supplemented by the technical charts. Options strategies primarily employed to generate additional income or hedge risk.
After having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; I have pretty much "been there and done that" at one point or another. I am currently a silent partner for an RIA in Houston, Texas.
The majority of my time is spent analyzing, researching and writing commentary about investing, investor psychology and macro-views of the markets and the economy. My thoughts are not generally mainstream and are often contrarian in nature but I try an use a common sense approach, clear explanations and my “real world” experience in the process.
I am the Chief Editor of the REAL INVESTMENT REPORT, a weekly subscriber based-newsletter that is distributed nationwide. The newsletter covers economic, political and market topics as they relate to your money and life.
I also write a daily blog which is read by thousands nationwide from individuals to professionals at www.realinvestmentadvice.com.
Karen Webster is one of the world’s leading experts on emerging payments and a strategic advisor to CEOs and Boards of multinational players in the payments and commerce space. As the CEO of Market Platform Dynamics, she works extensively with the most innovative players in the payments, financial services, mobile, B2B, digital media and technology sectors to identify, ignite and monetize innovation. Ms. Webster also serves as a member of the board for several emerging companies and helps these innovators develop and implement business strategies that drive market adoption for their products and services.
Karen is also an entrepreneur, who has successfully developed and launched several new ventures in the loyalty, on-line media, and social networking sectors, each of which was focused on introducing disruptive business models and product solutions to fill a market need. This includes PYMNTS.com, the leading media property focused innovation in the payments sector and a joint venture with Berkshire Hathaway’s Business Wire.
Karen is a frequent keynote speaker and author of numerous articles on the sources of innovation, strategy, loyalty, product design/bundling and pricing and platform strategies. Karen was a key contributor to Catalyst Code: The Secrets Behind the World’s Most Dynamic Companies, (Harvard Business School Press, 2007) and is credited with directing the research for the book and devising its trademarked 6-step Framework.
Karen has a long history of consulting, having served as the Managing Director of Global Marketing and Planning for PricewaterhouseCoopers’ US$6 billion management consulting practice and as COO for a US$200 million consulting subsidiary that is part of the MMC family of companies. She was an adjunct faculty member at her alma mater, Johns Hopkins University, where she holds a Masters’ Degree in Marketing and developed and taught graduate level courses on business-to-business marketing.
Karen is a passionate philanthropist and serves as a member of the Board of Trustees at the Dana Farber Cancer Institute and Chairman of the Board of the Susan G. Komen Advocacy Alliance.
I hold a PhD in the field of epidemiology a masters degree in public health. My undergraduate training is in policy, economics and the sciences. I have utilized my training in employment with governmment, academia, private industry and to further analyze the fundamentals and techinicals of all manner of companies in different sectors. Specifically, I like to trade growth companies, REITS, biotechnology/ pharmaceuticals and small-cap companies. I have been investing for about 10 years. I also enjoy trading short expiration options, and investing in stocks with 3-20 year horizons. I enjoy writing with Seeking Alpha to share my opinion and analyses. I am a large believer in the crowd source model championed by Seeking Alpha and believe every ounce of analysis and opinion should be considered when you invest your personal finances.
Ever feel like trading is like rolling dice? In a way, it is, because every mathematical model of the market includes a stochastic aspect.
But I believe we can load the dice in our favor through the use of statistics. Understanding both the stock market and each individual stock as a sort of random process with its own characteristics allows us to more accurately predict what it will do in the future.
Coupling statistics with fundamental analysis, I have the goal of revealing to you the hidden patterns within stocks so that you may do what you wish with that information.
Started my career as an engineer working in several industries including public transportation, construction and consumer goods - these experiences enabled me to really understand how many industries really work. After my MBA, I worked in corporate finance at Anheuser Busch Inbev where I experienced first hand the importance of strategy in value creation.
At Moneda Asset Management, I refined my investment skills working for the best portfolio managers in the asset class and that is where I really learnt to invest....successfully. I covered several industries ranging from Energy, Transportation and Industrials. Currently, I work in new business development at a major telecom in Chile, those, I won`t be writing about the sector to avoid any appearance of conflict of interest.
As I left the asset management industry and have no conflict of interest (except for the telecom space) nor restrictions, I will be writing about my investment ideas on Seeking Alpha. The purpose of my writing would be mainly to keep myself disciplined, but also, to hopefully receive feedback from the Seeking Alpha community and help others on maximizing their portfolio returns.
I will mainly focus on:
1. Sectors that I have covered which are most sectors except financials
2. Regionally, will be looking at Latam with few exceptions, and
3. Will be looking for value in small and mid cap companies (with few exceptions)
About my investment philosophy
1. I don`t buy into the idea of "value" and "growth", as I believe that all good investment ideas have to be based on a value not identified by the market, thus you may find value in both growth and value companies.
2. I base my analysis on fundamentals on the micro and macro levels.
3. Look for a 2-year investment horizon.
4. If my investment declines 20%, I revise my investment thesis. I would only liquidate if my initial thesis is not valid anymore. If it is still valid, I will increase my position.
Turn-around CEO with successful strategy and executive-team-performance-improvement consulting business.
Semi-retired (not working full time but serve on 2 corporate Boards) and re-balancing my portfolio to dividend growth. Objective is to get 5% from portfolio every year - 3.5 points from dividends and 1.5 points from capital gains. Prefer higher DGR to higher yield, but need about 3% yield on portfolio.
"...research revealed some surprising results. Over any longer period, say five to ten years, the companies with the lowest dividend yields and the highest consistent dividend growth were the top performers." Divs should be from companies whose long term history is raising divs faster than inflation. Therefore, over time the 1.5 points from stock sales should diminish to $ zero.
The overall portfolio should have 3 buckets of roughly equal proportion:
A. 2 to 3% yielders with high DGR (>10% over at least 10 + years - stocks most often come from Consumer Cyclical, Tech, and Industrial sectors)
B. stocks which have a much higher than average dividend yield, say 4 to 6%,combined with dividend growth at 6 to 8%/yr over 5 + years. Portfolio B stocks are mostly filled with Utilities, Telecommunications, REITs, and Energy stocks.
C. very undervalued stocks which combine a higher than average dividend yield 3 to 4 % with at least a dgr no less than 6%. These stocks don't come from specific sectors because the reasons for undervaluation are company/industry specific headwinds or uncertainties.
% needed from sales equals about 1% of portfolio. Anticipating a 6 to 8%/yr long term increase in portfolio value, not counting divs, I expect portfolio value to increase and therefore provide a necessary cushion to achieving planning objectives.
Stock prices follow earnings in the long term. Therefore, stock prices should increase at roughly the DGR and vice versa. So, primary focus should be on estimated 5 and 1 year EPS growth, followed by 10, 5,3 and 1 year DGR histories.
Be mostly a buyer of high quality dividend stocks, with solid competitive advantages. My holding period is forever, as long as the dividend is at least maintained. But, I do a thorough review every quarter to see if some stocks can be replaced with higher quality without sacrificing yield. Quality in this case means higher: estimated 5 year EPS growth; 10, 5, 3 and 1 year DGR; better Graham; or lower payout ratio. This review causes a turnover of 1 to 2 stocks per quarter.
I Concentrate efforts on stocks which grow earnings and dividends and which provide outstanding total returns over time. For the most part, this means confining choices to the CCC list for security of dividends continuing and growing, and to limit downside swings in portfolio value. Diversify across sectors and geographic locations.
Don’t buy illiquid stocks. Did I say don't buy illiquid stocks.
1. Est 5 year growth > 8 to 10%
2. NY growth > 8 to 10%
3. 5 yr DGR > 8 %
4. 1 yr DGR > 8%
5. D/E 3%), low payout stocks (
Full time Investor / Trader, 17 years.
Specialist in risk management, with intermediate trade focus, US stocks, international ETFs and commodities.
Believe in correlation of markets, must understand all markets to trade one well.
Self taught through continuous study of myself and other investors.
Extensive experience with short selling, futures and options.
Developing interest in international markets based on poltical change and policies.
Follow and read fundamentals but invest by listening to technical's.
Follow me on Twitter @Cessnadriver50
My background includes education in petroleum engineering and business and 15 years working with producers, midstream operators and utilities to bring oil and gas from the reservoir to the consumer. I understand in detail the full life cycle and value chain of oil, gas, and NGLs, from the physics of permeability and extraction to the economics of refinery turnarounds and utility load profiles.
I am interested in bringing focused, in-depth understanding to issues related to oil and gas investing. Industry expertise and a true understanding of how oil and gas is discovered, produced, processed, transported, marketed and consumed are vital to valuing investment opportunities in the fossil energy space.
Check out my comprehensive MLP report here: http://level2energy.com/mid-stream-energy-fundamentals/
Mr. Hui has been involved in the equity markets since 1980, both on the buy side and the sell side. He is a CFA Charterholder, and has presented numerous papers to quantitative discussion groups (Sample topics include: How Global are Resource Sectors).
Founder, CEO and managing director of Vailshire Capital Management, LLC, in Colorado Springs.
Managing director of Vailshire Partners, LP: a multi-strategy "two-pronged" hedge fund seeking present value, future growth, and current income through an active safe options strategy. The fund frequently sells covered calls and naked puts to earn generous income and profit from market volatility. As a physician, a strong emphasis is placed on health care, pharmaceutical and biotech equities.
Retired on June 30, 2015 from practicing medicine as a Diagnostic and Interventional Radiologist in Colorado Springs, CO.
Currently a full-time investment professional, managing Vailshire Partners, 30+ separately managed accounts via Vailshire Capital Management, as well as, working as an "emerging manager" for a fund-of-funds based in New York.
Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for its investors and then Mr. DeMuth writes about them on StW.
“I am profoundly deaf, but I sleep great.” -Marlee Matlin
Disclaimer: Any material provided is intended as general information only, and should not be considered or relied upon as a formal investment recommendation.
Andy Hecht is the chief market strategist for Carden Capital and Carden Futures. Andy is a sought-after commodity and futures trader, an options expert and analyst. He spent nearly 35 years on Wall Street, including two decades on the trading desk of Phillip Brothers, which became Salomon Brothers and ultimately part of Citigroup.
Over the past two decades, he has researched, structured and executed some of the largest trades ever made, involving huge quantities of precious metals and bulk commodities.
Andy understands the market in a way many traders can’t imagine. He’s booked vessels, armored cars and trains to transport and store a wide range of commodities. And he’s worked directly with The United Nations and the legendary trading group Phibro.
Today, Andy remains in close contact with sources around the world and his network of traders.
“I have a vast Rolodex of information in my head… so many bull and bear markets. When something happens, I don’t have to think. I just react. History does tend to repeat itself over and over.”
His friends and mentors include highly regarded energy and precious metals traders, supply line specialists and international shipping companies that give him vast insight into the market.
Andy’s writing and analysis can be found on a number of market based websites including CQG. Andy lectures at colleges and Universities. He also contributes to Traders Magazine. He consults for companies involved in producing and consuming commodities. Andy's biweekly radio show, The Commodities Hour with Andy Hecht, can be heard on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 5-6 PM EST on www.tfnn.com. Andy’s first book How to Make Money with Commodities, published by McGraw Hill was released in 2013 and has received excellent reviews. He is currently working on his second book, Luster. Andy held a Series 3 and Series 30 license from the National Futures Association and is associated as a collaborator and strategist with hedge funds. Andy is the commodity-expert for the website about.com and blogs on his own site technomentals.com.
Small business owner and investor. I've been involved with investing dating back to when I opened my first account at Olde Discount Brokers back in 1998 before it was purchased by H&R Block. My area of focus and ability is in value investing. I short commodities more often than I short stocks as I prefer to be a stocktimist or stock optimist by nature. I've only recently decided to become a contributor on the site as I'd like to share my research with others to help them with investing.
Baijnath Ramraika, CFA is a founding partner at MAEG and is a senior portfolio manager at Multi-Act managing global equity portfolios. Baij learned and perfected his investment philosophy and process under the capable guidance of Mr. Prashant Trivedi, the founding Chairman of Multi-Act. Having spent the first few years of his investment career researching companies globally, he had something of an epiphany as he made a shift from resorting primarily to fundamental investment research to leaning towards quantitative investment processes.
Old habits die hard. Not surprisingly, much of the quantitative processes developed and practiced by him are driven by lessons learnt as a fundamental analyst. Apart from working on his quantitative models, he continues to spend some of his time on fundamental analysis of companies as well. His investment philosophy primarily rests on buying high quality businesses at bargain to reasonable prices and shorting poor quality businesses at prices that discount blue skies and have poor price momentum.
Baij writes on several investment and other topics of interest to him. Baij’s author page at SSRN lists some of his research papers including his research papers on high quality stocks. With George (Yiorgos) Allayannis, Baij co-authored an academic case study (Comerica Incorporated: The Valuation Dilemma) and a technical note (Bank Valuation Issues).
Baij earned his MBA from Darden Graduate School of Business at University of Virginia in 2009 where he was the Sr. Portfolio Manager of the Cavalier fund at Darden Capital Management (DCM). In 2004, he completed all the three levels of CFA program of the CFA Institute and is a CFA charter holder. He earned his chartered accountant qualification in 2001 from the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) with a 41st rank in the final examinations on an all over India basis. He earned his undergraduate degree (B.Com) from Deen Dayal Upadhyay Groakhpur Univeristy (DDUGU).
Baij and his wife live in the city of Pune with their two little angels.
Peter Way Associates is the only known provider of the price range forecasts of widely-held, actively traded stocks derived from the hedging activities of market-making [MM] firms as they balance big-$-fund sellers and buyers in large block trades. The price ranges offer explicit downside exposure forecasts not commonly found in publicly published investment analyses.
This is all forward-looking data, based on what the MMs will pay for protection against coming unwanted price change while temporarily committed firm capital is exposed to market risks. It is available by modest subscription cost at blockdesk.com.
The behavioral analysis involved has been performed daily since Y2K, now on over 3,000 stocks, ETFs, and market indexes. That has built an actuarial history of how market prices have subsequently behaved following several million price range forecasts, issue by issue.
That data provides a qualitative backdrop to current forecasts in terms of odds of profitable positions, size of prospective gains, credibility of forecasts, and worst-case price drawdown exposure experiences.
Peter F. Way is a veteran Chartered Financial Analyst, having taken and passed the CFA Institute’s required 3 examinations in the first years they were given, 40+ years ago.
Armed with BS in Economics from the Wharton School and an MBA degree from Harvard Business School, he has managed staffs of dozens of Investment Researchers and Quantitative Analysts for the nation’s largest bank, arbitraged index options for NYSE Specialists, and managed portfolios of hundred-million-dollar equity investments for Fortune 100 corporate pension funds and non-profit endowments.
He has been elected President of professional Investment Analyst Societies in San Diego and New York City and has served on the editorial boards of the Financial Analysts Journal and the CFA Digest. He has spoken at numerous schools and professional meetings.
Please note that I do not read comments posted here, nor respond to messages here. I don't have the time. If you want my attention, you must seek it directly at my blog.
Aswath Damodaran is the Kerschner Family Chair Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. He teaches the corporate finance and equity valuation courses in the MBA program. He received his MBA and Ph.D from the University of California at Los Angeles. His research interests lie in valuation, portfolio management and applied corporate finance.
He has written three books on equity valuation (Damodaran on Valuation, Investment Valuation, The Dark Side of Valuation) and two on corporate finance (Corporate Finance: Theory and Practice, Applied Corporate Finance: A User’s Manual). He has co-edited a book on investment management with Peter Bernstein (Investment Management) and has a book on investment philosophies (Investment Philosophies). His newest book on portfolio management is titled Investment Fables and was released in 2004. His latest book is on the relationship between risk and value, and takes a big picture view of how businesses should deal with risk, and was published in 2007.
He was a visiting lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley, from 1984 to 1986, where he received the Earl Cheit Outstanding Teaching Award in 1985. He has been at NYU since 1986, received the Stern School of Business Excellence in Teaching Award (awarded by the graduating class) in 1988, 1991, 1992, 1999, 2001, 2007, 2008 and 2009, and was the youngest winner of the University-wide Distinguished Teaching Award (in 1990). He was profiled in Business Week as one of the top twelve business school professors in the United States in 1994.
Editors' Note: Seeking Alpha monitors Dr. Damodaran blog and posts relevant articles on his behalf.
A lifelong student of the markets, speculator, and investor, decades of experience have forged Adam into a hardcore contrarian. He believes in buying low when others are afraid, then later selling high when others are brave. He founded the financial-market research company Zeal LLC, and continues to write acclaimed weekly and monthly subscription newsletters.
I'm just a guy trying to bring some Peace, Love, and Tranquility to the hysterical world of Wall Street. While those hot shot investment bankers run around like chickens with their heads cut off, there are plenty of opportunities out there for the Average Joe – you just have to look for them. My focus is on value and growth stocks with a long term horizon.
Smead Capital Management is a registered investment advisor headquartered in Seattle, WA; founded in 2007. The company was formed to allow investors to benefit from long-term ownership of common stocks meeting the firm’s eight proprietary investment criteria. The firm manages a US Large Cap equity strategy in separate accounts and a mutual fund for advisors, family offices and institutions.
Richard is the managing principal of QVM Group LLC, a fee-based investment advisor based in Connecticut, with clients across the country. QVM also operates the site www.StopAlerts.com and the site www.RationalRisk.com.
QVM manages portfolios uniquely designed for each client on a flat fee basis through the client’s own accounts at Schwab; and provides investment coaching to "do-it-yourself" investors on an hourly fee basis.
The investment approach is based on value, asset allocation, expense control, risk management, customizing portfolios to each client's specific circumstances, and regular communication about strategy and absolute and benchmark performance.
Richard's extensive experience includes serving having served as a Board Director of Phoenix Investment Counsel, a U.S. pension and mutual funds manager, now Virtus Investment Partners (New York Stock Exchange: VRTS http://www.virtus.com); as Managing Director of Phoenix American Investment in London; and as a Board Director Aberdeen Asset Management PLC in Aberdeen Scotland (London Stock Exchange: ADN http://www.aberdeen-asset.com). He has been a Trustee of a $500 million pension fund, and was a charter investor and member of the Board of Directors of several internet companies, including Lending Tree (NASDAQ: TREE http://www.lendingtree.com) prior to its IPO. He is a 1970 graduate of Dartmouth College.
QVM Group LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Visit the QVM Group website. (http://www.qvmgroup.com). Follow him on Twitter: @QVMinvest
We have over 60 years of investment analysis experience. We have published investment research from the perspective of the buy side and the sell side. Our work has been used by institutions managing over $1 trillion in aggregate. We have published reports from both the long and short perspective and have worked with the largest short selling mutual fund in the world. We are long term value investors. It is our belief that, contrary to popular opinion, most individual investors and patient professional investors have the best opportunity since the beginning of our investment career to beat institutional and mutual fund managers in terms of risk adjusted performance. The "Information Arbitrage" advantage institutional investors have had is mostly eliminated, while the individual investor still can maintain an edge with "Time Arbitrage". Our goal is to provide institutional quality buy side articles that educate and stimulate investors in the hope of improving their returns. We also are willing to mentor young analysis who wish to improve their analytical skills.
40 yrs in oil business, 5 yrs Major Oil + 35 yrs as Independent Operator in nearly all US basins, Petroleum Drilling, Production, and Reservoir Engineer (SPE), Petroleum Exploration and Development Geologist (AAPG), Landman (AAPL). Former Founding Director, Executive Officer of two Public Oil & Gas Companies (US and Europe), provided a portion of start-up funding for others. Extensive personal investments in O&G wells, Leases, Pipelines, Equipment, etc. No long or short positions in any Public Oil & Gas stock.
Donald R. van Deventer founded the Kamakura Corporation in April, 1990 and is currently Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Dr. van Deventer's emphasis at Kamakura Corporation is enterprise wide risk management and modern credit risk technology. The second edition of his newest book, Advanced Financial Risk Management (with Kenji Imai and Mark Mesler) was published in 2013 by John Wiley & Sons. In 2003 Dr. van Deventer co-authored Credit Risk Models and the Basel Accords with Kenji Imai. His second book, also with Kenji Imai, is Financial Risk Analytics: A Term Structure Model Approach for Banking, Insurance, and Investment Management published by Irwin in 1996. Dr. van Deventer's first book Financial Risk Management in Banking (with Dr. Dennis Uyemura, Probus Publishing, 1993) is one of the best known books in its field. He has served on the editorial board of the Journal of Credit Risk since 2005. Dr. van Deventer's primary financial consulting and research interests involve the practical application of leading edge financial theory to solve critical financial risk management problems. Dr. van Deventer has been involved in financial advisory assignments including both risk management and mergers and acquisitions. He has worked on assignments for the municipalities affected in the Orange County bankruptcy, in a major derivatives dispute between JPMorgan and a Korean securities firm, for Bank Negara Malaysia, the Department of the Treasury of the United States, governments of three of the OECD countries and many of the world’s largest financial institutions. Prior to founding Kamakura Corporation, Dr. van Deventer was senior vice president in the investment banking department of Lehman Brothers (then Shearson Lehman Hutton) from 1987 to 1990. During that time, he was responsible for 27 major client relationships including Sony, Canon, Fujitsu, NTT, Tokyo Electric Power Co., and most of Japan's leading banks. Dr. van Deventer completed three of the first four mergers and acquisitions assignments for a Japanese client by Lehman Brothers and the first domestic Japanese corporate straight bond underwriting by the firm. From 1982 to 1987, Dr. van Deventer was the treasurer for First Interstate Bancorp in Los Angeles. In this capacity he was responsible for all bond financing requirements, the company’s commercial paper program, and a multi-billion dollar derivatives hedging program for the company. During this time, First Interstate became the first issuer of medium term notes in the Euro market and first issuer of bank medium term notes. Dr. van Deventer also served as senior planning officer for acquisitions, new ventures and corporate strategy, participating in the 1986 attempted take-over of BankAmerica Corporation. Dr. van Deventer was a Vice President in the risk management department of Security Pacific National Bank from 1977 to 1982, where he initiated the duration-based futures hedging program for the bank. Dr. van Deventer holds a Ph.D. in Business Economics, a joint degree of the Harvard University Department of Economics and the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. He was appointed to the Harvard University Graduate School Alumni Association Council in 1999 and has now completed more than a decade of service on the Council. Dr. van Deventer served as Chairman of the Council for four years from 2012 to 2016. From 2005 through 2009, he served as one of two appointed directors of the Harvard Alumni Association representing the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. Dr. van Deventer was named to the CFA Hawaii Advisory Board in 2010. Dr. van Deventer was also named to the Advisory Board of the Pacific Asian Center for Entrepreneurship and E-Business at the University of Hawaii Shidler College of Business in 2012. He served as a director of the Hawaii Bicycling League from 2005 to 2014. Dr. van Deventer also holds a degree in mathematics and economics from Occidental College, where he graduated second in his class, summa cum laude, and Phi Beta Kappa. Dr. van Deventer speaks Japanese and English.
I have worked in the financial service industry for 40 years. My area of expertise is risk management and complex financial products. I have been a frequent speaker, on behalf of many financial firms, to financial professionals across the country.
I have extensive experience in statistics and actuarial science.
Richard Zeits is an Oil & Gas industry analyst and consultant. His background includes fourteen years as Energy industry-focused investment banker, portfolio manager and senior investment analyst with bulge bracket firms in New York. Zeits Energy Analytics use elaborate proprietary analytics and data bases to provide in-depth industry research, market intelligence, and forecasting.