top_tier

47 Comments

    • ON: Sun Sep 28th 11:11 AM
      Commented on:
      Amidst Market Turmoil, Apple Has Unique Opportunity
      Apple expects gross margins in the fiscal fourth quarter ending September of 31.5%, down from 34.8% in the June quarter. The company noted that the June quarter gross margin was about 180 basis points over guidance. Apple said 70 basis points of the upside related to a “one-time true up” of contract manufacturer deferred margins, while the rest stemmed from a better commodity environment, a richer product mix and leverage from higher-than-expected revenue.

      Apple said three factors will weigh on margins in the September quarter: back-to-school promotions, a future product transition, which it declined to specify, the lack of the contract manufacturer true-up from the most recent quarter.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Sep 15th 10:13 AM
      Commented on:
      Apple: Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown
      Of course you never saw it confirm, and that was my point, the "chart pattern" was there, but it was never realized, or confirmed. I guess you would be able to say the same with the three crows, if Apple doesn't crash, it "never happened". BTW, the first downward bar is too short to confirm a three crows pattern, they need to be all long bars.

      You call them like I see them, so do I. You're a fraud and scoundrel
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Sep 15th 08:53 AM
      Commented on:
      Apple: Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown
      Apple had a beautiful cup and handle going for awhile too...didn't follow through...

      Zac, you're the epitome of the worst side of boiler room antics of Wall Street. Your scare tactics are disgraceful
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Aug 26th 15:06 PM
      Commented on:
      Understanding Valuation Multiples With Respect to Cash
      Apple isn't a good example in this PE discussion because of the deferred revenue accounting for the iPhone, which is yet another mistake that certain analysts miss in calculating Apple's PE (astonishingly so).
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Aug 24th 11:28 AM
      Commented on:
      Apple: An Antidote to iPhone Complacency
      Ridiculous article. Of course anything is possible, you could have summarized your blog by saying that Apple might continue to set the world on fire, and it might not.

      Look, investors simply need to weigh the odds of Apple surpassing a measly 4% share of the global PC market, or an even more measly 1% of the smart phone market. You suggest Apple's future growth is a huge gamble, I say it's not.

      And for someone that professes to be so up to speed about everything Apple you make no mention about the barriers to entry relative to the ecosystem Apple has carved out as it relates to hardware AND services, aka itunes/app store etc. Sure competition exists, but it's not just about hardware, or software. A good investment thesis recognizes that Apple doesn't need to rule the tech world to be an even greater success, then again, they just might rule this tech world someday to boot.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Aug 8th 08:30 AM
      Commented on:
      Microsoft Gets the Blogging Community
      "I don't know if Microsoft's blogger outreach efforts are part of some larger more deliberate and organized directed PR effort"

      Yes deliberate, you can start with yourself. The charade will never end.

      Company's should listen to their customers, that is the only thing relevant to discourse to improve performance. Now, since you use these two companies as example, no one can say Microsoft listens to its customers more than Apple does.

      The blogger world is fraught with agenda, both institutionally with the investment world and the technology companies competing. It's just a cloak and dagger chess game. And Mr. Hawk, you're right at the top of the A-list as a surgical tool for special interests.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Jul 30th 08:34 AM
      Commented on:
      Apple Math: Market Share over Margins
      Even the current forecast of lower margin is temporary, the back to school season and component costs for new product are consequences for that. Getting past that, and too, folding in ever increasing high margin iPhone sales the margin will be headed back up. Again, Wall Street planting fear, aka boiler room outfits like the Street.com carpet bombing hype about this and Jobs health etc, but all to do about nothing in the end.

      People were saying last year this time the recession was going to hurt Apple, hasn't happened, and the long lines at Apple stores are clear evidence that it's still not happening.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Jul 28th 08:30 AM
      Commented on:
      Five Great Quality Companies: Are They Too Expensive?
      Your analysis of Apple is extremely flawed on a number of levels. I'll pick just one relative to PE; Apple only reports 1/8 of their income for the iPhone in any given quarter, which makes your analysis of 2008 earnings flawed.

      That aside, I suspect most that are invested in Apple are looking at the stock on a forward looking basis and recognizing the very low market share they have in regard to Mac and smartpones, thus seeing the gross opportunity that represents.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Jul 27th 09:11 AM
      Commented on:
      Steve Jobs: Honesty Is the Best Policy
      Brilliant; you state: "Steve Jobs is an arrogant fuck", followed by "calling influential reporters "slime buckets" should be avoided as well."

      Thank god you're not a influential reporter, lending yet more support to Steve's arrogance.

      Might as well restate the real story right here since the slime bucket bloggers are out in force pounding the same topic:

      The press blew way out of proportion Jobs health. His condition isn’t life threatening. The press supplemented their “reporting” with rampant speculation, this in turn fueled the rumor mill that was gleefully juiced, pumped and perpetuated by boiler room Wall Street outfits entrusted with the marching orders to smear Apple in any way shape or form. The root in a word, greed.

      Jobs is arrogant, indeed, so are many of the “reporters” and certainly bloggers that make their nickel from sensational hype.

      Also, speaking of “above the law”, if Apple were breaking “laws” there would be suits. There’s no suits out of the ordinary for an operation this size. So again, arrogant and loose reporting.

      So while Jobs may be arrogant, by definition in this case of being a hard nosed, untrusting business man (I can’t imagine why so much of Apple’s initiatives are wrapped in secret, go figure); so too he’s correct in stating that many reporters are slime buckets.

      The jokes really on the reporters and institutions that think most out here in the working world don’t get it.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Jul 27th 09:01 AM
      Commented on:
      Jobs' Health Is a Matter of Public Interest, Whether Apple Likes It or Not
      Another disjointed piece of writing. Let's start with your oxymoron non fact "fact" where you state:

      "the fact that the CEO of a public company like Apple is fighting a potentially terminal disease (if that’s true) definitely qualifies as material information."

      "The fact that"..."if it's true"...huh? Since the real fact has been made known that he's not fighting a terminal disease then it definitely does not qualify as material information.

      I'll restate a the real fact right here:

      The press blew way out of proportion Jobs health. His condition isn’t life threatening. The press supplemented their “reporting” with rampant speculation, this in turn fueled the rumor mill that was gleefully juiced, pumped and perpetuated by boiler room Wall Street outfits entrusted with the marching orders to smear Apple in any way shape or form. The root in a word, greed.

      Jobs is arrogant, indeed, so are many of the “reporters” and certainly bloggers that make their nickel from sensational hype.

      Also, speaking of “above the law”, if Apple were breaking “laws” there would be suits. There’s no suits out of the ordinary for an operation this size. So again, arrogant and loose reporting.

      So while Jobs may be arrogant, by definition in this case of being a hard nosed, untrusting business man (I can’t imagine why so much of Apple’s initiatives are wrapped in secret, go figure); so too he’s correct in stating that many reporters are slime buckets.

      The jokes really on the reporters and institutions that think most out here in the working world don’t get it.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Jul 17th 09:04 AM
      Commented on:
      Channel Checks Show Blackberry Sales Not Pressured by iPhone
      User 227556, you miss the point, Verizon is a pure play for RIMM in the sense that it doesn't sell iPhones, it does sell a myriad other devices but that's not relevant in my discussion. It's a forgone conclusion that RIMM and Apple are the heavyweights for smart phones. Verizon doesn't sell iPhones so it's sales for smart phones is from a captured audience. An IF Verizon is gaining subscribers it isn't because of the strength of the Blackberry since all the carriers sell them. The only relevant numbers comparison is how the carriers that sell both, Blackberry vs iPhone, which is selling higher volume of said, this juxtaposed to new subscribers globally that carriers sanctioned to sell the iPhone are stealing from carriers that don't sell the iPhone.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Jul 17th 08:45 AM
      Commented on:
      Channel Checks Show Blackberry Sales Not Pressured by iPhone
      So at ATT July is tracking to be 75% below June growth it appears. Of course Verizon is a pure play for the Blackberry since the iPhone doesn't sell there, as for Vodafone, it has the rights to sell the iPhone in just a portion of the countries it has networks in. So, for a better picture, how many subscribers did Verizon add in June? And Vodafone in the countries where it doesn't have the rights to sell the iPhone? These networks don't have competition from the iPhone in a direct way so the research is spurious at best.
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Jul 12th 13:06 PM
      Commented on:
      Did Apple Manufacture a First-Day iPhone Shortage?
      Of course the other alternative is that the store clerk lied, or the "reader" lied about the store clerk saying "could not start selling them until Saturday morning due to his contract with Apple". Or in fact that you lied. Not possible I suppose that disinformation exists, naive to think anyone tries to manipulate a stock. It's insane to think an article can be written based on substantiated fact these days I suppose. Rumor means squat.

      But then again, the only relevant fact is that Apple is selling a ton of phones globally.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Apr 25th 09:06 AM
      Commented on:
      Apple's Branding Strategy Delivers Superior Results
      As a branding specialist I can tell you that you only have half the equation right. Yes indeed Apple is among the best in positioning and exploiting their brand; however, it doesn't matter how good your brand is if the product doesn't deliver an exceptional experience. In Apple's case, it's the best of both worlds, thus the brand and product feed off each other synergistically; the product line meshes well, seamless, and all product lines representing the edge of technological achievement. No small feat.

      I find it interesting as competitors; Dell a good example that I'll use here (who's had a decent "brand"); they fall all over themselves trying to reinvent themselves thinking it's their stale brand that's made them fall behind, Dell extends this thinking into revamping the industrial design of the products, in their mind this and increased emphasis on improved marketing efforts is what it will take for them to regain their luster. They will fail because they're just a box maker who's past success was efficiencies passed on to the consumer. Those days are gone because it's the experience that's suffering, they're beholden to others for that.

      So while yes, the Apple brand is exceptional, so is the product and experience. One without the other would not see Apple at the pinnacle it is today.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Apr 11th 09:28 AM
      Commented on:
      Apple Looks Undervalued Based on Past Earnings
      Growth stocks are all about the future, trite comment, yes, but especially true in Apple's case. There's an interesting Business Week release this a.m. www.businessweek.com/t...

      This artcile encapsulates the longs views pretty accurately. When considering the small market share Apple still currently holds in all its business categories sans the MP3 market and factor in the huge growth potential in it's other business segments, growth which has been demonstrated in previous quarters, factor in the huge cash position, that continues to grow...well, using an old school blue chip collar smoke stack logic of "intrinsic" value is indeed trite. Historic growth isn't relative, but ignoring the mounting evidence of what the future holds for this company IS relative, the evidence is such that I wouldn't bet against it.
      View article »
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