Fred Swartz

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

Thanks for an interesting article that stimulated even more interesting discussion. Many of the suggestions for improvement were good, and I look forward to seeing a revision (tho that might take a while!). And thanks to the author for the many (polite) responses.

Naked-Shorting Datapoint of the Day, Carl Icahn Edition

"Naked shorting" in the real world isn't the least bit uncommon or illegal. When you buy something that isn't in stock, the company you buy it from has created a naked short. Usually they know they can cover it quickly, especially in this just-in-time economy. You might say their motivation is different than the sell-high-buy-low hopes of those using financial instruments, but it's still naked shorting.

What an Apple Tablet Has to Be

@Roger Knights who said "Doug Englebart (sp?), inventor of the graphical interface and mouse, also invented a gadget that (after a little training) allowed one-handed typing, using key-chords--and at a faster speed than a keyboard. (Nowadays it could operate wirelessly.) Apple could offer this as an accessory, along with online training. Engelbart was very disappointed that no manufacturer got behind his gadget and gave it a push, because he thought it was his best idea."

There's a long history of chorded input preceding Engelbart, and you can currently buy chord keyboards/pads, eg FrogPad or Twiddler2. Despite the "obvious" superiority over QWERTY, a number of companies in the past have gone out of business selling chorded input devices.

Avoiding the Cloud Computing Commoditization Death Spiral

Cloud computing will inevitably increase with benefits/harm to many. BUT what really bothers me is that it may end up supplied by a few companies (Google and Amazon as mentioned before) with a very high level of risk. For example, just as there was a recent gmail.com outage, what would happen to how many companies if the large Amazon part of the cloud is rendered temporarily unavailable due to attacks/faults/...?

How Will Dollar ETFs Hold Up Against the Fed's Printing Presses?

I found the Bloomberg source article for this at www.bloomberg.com/apps...

"The dollar as a percentage of global central banks’ foreign reserves increased to 65 percent in the first three months of the year, from 64.1 percent in the previous quarter, according to the International Monetary Fund. Its share has remained around 65 percent the last five years, after falling from 72.7 percent in 2001."

So it appears there is a drop from 2001, but not much change in the last five years. Interesting....

How Will Dollar ETFs Hold Up Against the Fed's Printing Presses?

"The dollar as a percentage of global central banks’ foreign reserves increased to 65% in the first three months of the year, proof that the greenback’s status is faltering."

??? Should that have been "decreased"? Otherwise it doesn't seem to make sense.

Pairs Trading Using ROB

Thanks for the excellent pointer to ETF Rewind! I've been doing my own ETF pair trading, but without the massive technical backup they provide. Despite my enthusiasm, their daily updates may be overkill for longer term trend pair trading. And they recommend against small screens (ie, my laptop). But just reading the sample info at their site has been educational.

Lots to think about.

THD: Thailand ETF Beckons but Multiple Risks Demand Caution

Having lived in Thailand for four years, I think the precarious health of the revered king presents some political risk. Otherwise I would consider it.

The End of Asset Allocation

If you allow short positions in asset allocation, then the problem of correlations is solved, but of course the hard part of making the right choices remains.

Taming Inflation with ETFs

WIP would be an answer if world inflation is greater than US inflation and/or the US dollar drops. Perhaps it's a good choice, but it addresses different issues than TIPs.

Rotation and Timing Models Combined

As DavidHume Tower asked, how is this hedged? Interesting.

6 Energy ETFs: Clean vs. Non-Clean

Nice, and thanks for the pair trading idea.

Measuring Fun

One of the more interesting ideas for measuring quality of life is Bhutan's rejection of GDP as a measure of well being, instead using Gross National Happiness (GNH) as a measure of progress. Google this to find more, but it does include ways to quantify happiness, and several other measurement systems have also been proposed.

An appealing idea and several "economics of happiness" studies have suggested that the relationship between GDP and GNH isn't straightforward.

Paired Trades: Sell Collective Brands, Buy Shoe Carnival

Thanks for the clear answer. I find it somewhat curious that you (as well as others) make recommendations, but don't "eat your own dog food". Is this to avoid any taint of "pump and dump" or "front running"?


> Great question. In my business, I do advise clients on both longs
> and shorts. In my very personal trading, I use only ETFs. I do
> manage a long-only account for a family member (a charitable foundation).
> When I disclose a long, that is where I maintain exposure, even though
> I don't directly benefit in any way.

Paired Trades: Sell Collective Brands, Buy Shoe Carnival

Based on your disclosure statemenst, you don't pursue a long-short strategy, which would seem ideal for pairs.

I'm curious about the reasons for this: too risky, you don't think it works well, not appropriate for your business, unable to short many of the stocks, ...?