Fred Swartz's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/110172/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/177545-chart-of-the-day-the-big-banks-get-bigger?source=feed#comment-802067 802067 TBTF) doesn't just mean that depositors would be bailed out (as they would also be in small banks) but that other bank counter parties would be bailed out because otherwise the economic damage would be too great -- unlike with small banks.

TBTF banks know that they will be bailed out, so can take risks small banks can't (ie, moral hazard).

But beyond the economic risks and moral hazard issues, TBTF banks are probably too big for other reasons, eg, reduced competition, regulator capture, and the generally corrupting influence of massive lobbying.

Not to dispute the economies of scale and international reach, but the negative effects of massive banks seem to exceed their pluses. Additional regulation would mitigate some of these issues, but effective action by a lobbied congress seems unlikely.]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:14:47 -0500 TBTF) doesn't just mean that depositors would be bailed out (as they would also be in small banks) but that other bank counter parties would be bailed out because otherwise the economic damage would be too great -- unlike with small banks.

TBTF banks know that they will be bailed out, so can take risks small banks can't (ie, moral hazard).

But beyond the economic risks and moral hazard issues, TBTF banks are probably too big for other reasons, eg, reduced competition, regulator capture, and the generally corrupting influence of massive lobbying.

Not to dispute the economies of scale and international reach, but the negative effects of massive banks seem to exceed their pluses. Additional regulation would mitigate some of these issues, but effective action by a lobbied congress seems unlikely.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170526-property-values-set-to-fall-43-from-current-depressed-levels?source=feed#comment-742803 742803 Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:46:17 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166531-naked-shorting-datapoint-of-the-day-carl-icahn-edition?source=feed#comment-716804 716804 Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:38:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160095-what-an-apple-tablet-has-to-be?source=feed#comment-665485 665485
There's a long history of chorded input preceding Engelbart, and you can currently buy chord keyboards/pads, eg FrogPad or Twiddler2. Despite the "obvious" superiority over QWERTY, a number of companies in the past have gone out of business selling chorded input devices.]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 16:42:46 -0400
There's a long history of chorded input preceding Engelbart, and you can currently buy chord keyboards/pads, eg FrogPad or Twiddler2. Despite the "obvious" superiority over QWERTY, a number of companies in the past have gone out of business selling chorded input devices.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160128-avoiding-the-cloud-computing-commoditization-death-spiral?source=feed#comment-665462 665462 Mon, 07 Sep 2009 16:09:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/157498-how-will-dollar-etfs-hold-up-against-the-fed-s-printing-presses?source=feed#comment-639686 639686 www.bloomberg.com/apps...

"The dollar as a percentage of global central banks’ foreign reserves increased to 65 percent in the first three months of the year, from 64.1 percent in the previous quarter, according to the International Monetary Fund. Its share has remained around 65 percent the last five years, after falling from 72.7 percent in 2001."

So it appears there is a drop from 2001, but not much change in the last five years. Interesting....]]> Fri, 21 Aug 2009 10:34:28 -0400 www.bloomberg.com/apps...

"The dollar as a percentage of global central banks’ foreign reserves increased to 65 percent in the first three months of the year, from 64.1 percent in the previous quarter, according to the International Monetary Fund. Its share has remained around 65 percent the last five years, after falling from 72.7 percent in 2001."

So it appears there is a drop from 2001, but not much change in the last five years. Interesting....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157498-how-will-dollar-etfs-hold-up-against-the-fed-s-printing-presses?source=feed#comment-639670 639670
??? Should that have been "decreased"? Otherwise it doesn't seem to make sense.]]> Fri, 21 Aug 2009 10:28:20 -0400
??? Should that have been "decreased"? Otherwise it doesn't seem to make sense.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156302-pairs-trading-using-rob?source=feed#comment-632404 632404
Lots to think about.]]> Sun, 16 Aug 2009 19:53:42 -0400
Lots to think about.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152250-thd-thailand-etf-beckons-but-multiple-risks-demand-caution?source=feed#comment-607385 607385 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 21:14:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148614-the-end-of-asset-allocation?source=feed#comment-588152 588152 Tue, 14 Jul 2009 16:33:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146951-taming-inflation-with-etfs?source=feed#comment-574964 574964 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 21:19:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146011-rotation-and-timing-models-combined?source=feed#comment-569018 569018 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 17:07:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146097-6-energy-etfs-clean-vs-non-clean?source=feed#comment-569014 569014 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 17:02:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145514-measuring-fun?source=feed#comment-565001 565001 GNH) as a measure of progress. Google this to find more, but it does include ways to quantify happiness, and several other measurement systems have also been proposed.

An appealing idea and several "economics of happiness" studies have suggested that the relationship between GDP and GNH isn't straightforward.]]> Sat, 27 Jun 2009 14:09:11 -0400 GNH) as a measure of progress. Google this to find more, but it does include ways to quantify happiness, and several other measurement systems have also been proposed.

An appealing idea and several "economics of happiness" studies have suggested that the relationship between GDP and GNH isn't straightforward.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144312-paired-trades-sell-collective-brands-buy-shoe-carnival?source=feed#comment-559895 559895

> Great question. In my business, I do advise clients on both longs
> and shorts. In my very personal trading, I use only ETFs. I do
> manage a long-only account for a family member (a charitable foundation).
> When I disclose a long, that is where I maintain exposure, even though
> I don't directly benefit in any way.]]> Tue, 23 Jun 2009 23:09:54 -0400

> Great question. In my business, I do advise clients on both longs
> and shorts. In my very personal trading, I use only ETFs. I do
> manage a long-only account for a family member (a charitable foundation).
> When I disclose a long, that is where I maintain exposure, even though
> I don't directly benefit in any way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144312-paired-trades-sell-collective-brands-buy-shoe-carnival?source=feed#comment-556445 556445
I'm curious about the reasons for this: too risky, you don't think it works well, not appropriate for your business, unable to short many of the stocks, ...?]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 16:08:37 -0400
I'm curious about the reasons for this: too risky, you don't think it works well, not appropriate for your business, unable to short many of the stocks, ...?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143217-long-term-market-trends-a-djia-buy-signal-indicator?source=feed#comment-547802 547802 Mon, 15 Jun 2009 18:16:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142948-stress-testing-your-portfolio?source=feed#comment-545403 545403
It would be informative to see what results for 12/2006, 12/2007, and 12/2008 would have been.]]> Sat, 13 Jun 2009 16:00:19 -0400
It would be informative to see what results for 12/2006, 12/2007, and 12/2008 would have been.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142986-why-we-over-weight-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-545244 545244
Using the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (also from stockcharts.com) gives a different impression, and in the opinion of many, a more reasonable representation of trends.

If you make arguments about the recent behavior of an SMA, as you did, you should at least point out that these changes are due as much to old data as new data.

Not that this has much to do with the main point of your article :-)]]> Sat, 13 Jun 2009 12:53:08 -0400
Using the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (also from stockcharts.com) gives a different impression, and in the opinion of many, a more reasonable representation of trends.

If you make arguments about the recent behavior of an SMA, as you did, you should at least point out that these changes are due as much to old data as new data.

Not that this has much to do with the main point of your article :-)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140341-treasuries-make-a-comeback?source=feed#comment-524723 524723 Sat, 30 May 2009 22:48:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131195-japanese-lesson-for-u-s-demographics-matter-a-lot?source=feed#comment-467063 467063
What would a stable economy in a country with a high retired to worker population be like? But it's unrealistic to expect populations to stabilize in a rational manner -- some populations will continue explosive growth and competition for resources will have nasty consequences.]]> Fri, 17 Apr 2009 16:19:13 -0400
What would a stable economy in a country with a high retired to worker population be like? But it's unrealistic to expect populations to stabilize in a rational manner -- some populations will continue explosive growth and competition for resources will have nasty consequences.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128276-learning-about-options-part-two-the-exchanges?source=feed#comment-444277 444277 Sun, 29 Mar 2009 14:36:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127278-there-s-revolution-in-the-air?source=feed#comment-436789 436789
The wrongdoings of the past few years were supposed to be righted by Obama -- that's why I voted for him. But now I'm mad that he talks no earmarks and controlling excessive salaries, but acts otherwise! He asks Geithner to "use all legal means" to recover the bonuses paid to wrongdoers, but it looks like find all legal means to defend them.

Is the US still being run by the same corruptocracy? Congress may be responsible for many of the problems, but they are at least willing bend with the wind to address the core ethical issues better than either the companies themselves or the administration.

Disclosure: Long pitchforks.]]> Mon, 23 Mar 2009 12:32:37 -0400
The wrongdoings of the past few years were supposed to be righted by Obama -- that's why I voted for him. But now I'm mad that he talks no earmarks and controlling excessive salaries, but acts otherwise! He asks Geithner to "use all legal means" to recover the bonuses paid to wrongdoers, but it looks like find all legal means to defend them.

Is the US still being run by the same corruptocracy? Congress may be responsible for many of the problems, but they are at least willing bend with the wind to address the core ethical issues better than either the companies themselves or the administration.

Disclosure: Long pitchforks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121828-gm-and-chrysler-why-s-bankruptcy-so-expensive?source=feed#comment-397932 397932
Downsizing seems to be in the works, but scanty details from the restructuring plan suggest that they haven't managed to entirely reduce their debt, get free from all health obligations, or get employee costs in the range of their US (transplant) competitors.

Bankruptcy wouldn't be a pretty picture, but it surely must be less expensive in the long run than continuing with a higher cost basis, incompetent management, and taxpayer assistance.

Nothing new in my post; just a long agreement with you to work out my frustrations.]]> Sat, 21 Feb 2009 15:00:06 -0500
Downsizing seems to be in the works, but scanty details from the restructuring plan suggest that they haven't managed to entirely reduce their debt, get free from all health obligations, or get employee costs in the range of their US (transplant) competitors.

Bankruptcy wouldn't be a pretty picture, but it surely must be less expensive in the long run than continuing with a higher cost basis, incompetent management, and taxpayer assistance.

Nothing new in my post; just a long agreement with you to work out my frustrations.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116314-preferreds-get-crushed-again?source=feed#comment-366123 366123 Mon, 26 Jan 2009 00:08:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108569-buy-write-option-strategy-generating-nice-profits?source=feed#comment-318420 318420 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 17:45:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106189-the-autos-and-mentality-that-ruined-detroit?source=feed#comment-308244 308244
Things will have to change, and change will mean a lot of pain for workers, since demand for the American auto products will likely continue to decline for the next few years, as it has since 1962.

Radical changes might save the auto companies, but this would mean replacing the current management / UAW with their broken mentality.

Reorganization under Chapter 11, possibly with help from the government, seems like the only feasible way to achieve the changes that are needed.]]> Mon, 17 Nov 2008 16:36:10 -0500
Things will have to change, and change will mean a lot of pain for workers, since demand for the American auto products will likely continue to decline for the next few years, as it has since 1962.

Radical changes might save the auto companies, but this would mean replacing the current management / UAW with their broken mentality.

Reorganization under Chapter 11, possibly with help from the government, seems like the only feasible way to achieve the changes that are needed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105061-should-we-really-bail-out-the-big-three-automakers-with-73-20-per-hour-labor?source=feed#comment-302619 302619
Sadly, the only way GM and the unions (both at fault for many reasons given above) will restructure is through some drastic act like reorganizing through bankruptcy. Bankruptcy isn't necessarily the end of a company, but gives it a chance to get out of the mess it's in and have somewhat of a fresh start.

Giving taxpayer money (or just printing it) to the current dysfunctional companies would only prolong their painful demise. They need to be motivated to change.

Their main business plan seems to be to ask the government for money (Oh yes, they did kill the electric car a while ago and plan a new one in a small production run in a couple of years).

Q: Why aren't stockholders insisting on throwing out upper management? Is so much of the stock owned by "insiders" who are benefiting from the status quo?]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 23:08:18 -0500
Sadly, the only way GM and the unions (both at fault for many reasons given above) will restructure is through some drastic act like reorganizing through bankruptcy. Bankruptcy isn't necessarily the end of a company, but gives it a chance to get out of the mess it's in and have somewhat of a fresh start.

Giving taxpayer money (or just printing it) to the current dysfunctional companies would only prolong their painful demise. They need to be motivated to change.

Their main business plan seems to be to ask the government for money (Oh yes, they did kill the electric car a while ago and plan a new one in a small production run in a couple of years).

Q: Why aren't stockholders insisting on throwing out upper management? Is so much of the stock owned by "insiders" who are benefiting from the status quo?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104856-general-motors-beginning-the-endgame?source=feed#comment-300824 300824
Until there are big changes (radical downsizing, brand consolidation, serious small car production, union giveups, ...), they shouldn't be given taxpayer money.

Why haven't we heard more about replacing management? Why aren't the stockholders more active?]]> Sat, 08 Nov 2008 15:07:45 -0500
Until there are big changes (radical downsizing, brand consolidation, serious small car production, union giveups, ...), they shouldn't be given taxpayer money.

Why haven't we heard more about replacing management? Why aren't the stockholders more active?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75494-how-the-stock-market-is-like-a-dog-on-a-leash?source=feed#comment-161217 161217 Sat, 03 May 2008 15:26:53 -0400