Fred Swartz

How the Stock Market Is Like a Dog on a Leash

What's wrong with just showing the usual superimposed moving average, where we can see the distance between the price and the average? Your display removes the useful information about price movement. Bollinger bands give even more info. Sorry, but I see only disadvantages to this kind of display.

Achieving Outperformance in a Low Return World

Thanks for mentioning "Mission Impossible", but it might also be interesting to tell us what you thought about it (good, bad, ...).

Top 5 Country ETFs from the Motley Fool CAPS Survey

Picking a starting point for comparison makes all the difference. If you plot comparisons for the last three months, EEB comes in at the BOTTOM, about 15% below EWD.

The (Abandoned) Uptick Rule and Blaming the Shorts

I fail to see how shorting and removal of the uptick rule are a problem.

However, the unknown extent of naked shorts used to manipulate low-float stocks is a little scary. The interesting and well-narrated presentation at businessjive.com (as mentioned above) is really worth a look if you want to understand terms like NTCC, BD, SHO, and the "death spiral convert".

How Much Can We Blame the Uptick Rule?

Partly out of ignorance and because I like to be short-long I've had no objection to the uptick rule. But I hadn't realized that "naked shorting" was being so widely tolerated -- that does seem criminal, and worth fixing.

What was the result of the 1000-stock pilot study? Did these stocks behave differently as a result of removing the uptick rule? Goggling "uptick rule pilot study" will get you to relevant articles, eg,
www.helium.com/items/5... . The general conclusion seems to be that neither volatility nor return were changed.

However, "Unfortunately, the study did not examine the consequences for low float stocks (stocks with few number of shares traded daily) and small cap stocks, which are targets for manipulation."

I don't know my away around stock manipulation, but it seems quite possible to manipulate on the upside too. Why not have a "downtick" rule to prevent manipulation on the upside? Just kidding in a way, but perhaps a "tick" rule is the wrong way to solve these problems.

Argentina’s Merval Index: An Overview

Helpful summary. The "farm crisis" and falling confidence in Kirchner bring up memories of past Argentine economic problems. How much of a concern should these be to an investor?

Merrill Lynch: Per Capita Recession Began in Q4

Excellent point. Thanks. You've used Gross Domestic "Purchases". Typo for Product?

Bracing for a 'Lost Decade'

What these "esoteric asset classes" that we should be wary of "this late in the performance cycle"? I can make some guesses, but why not name them?

CFOs: Recession Has Already Started

Interesting graph, thanks. Although some noted the decline in optimism over a longer period, it only moved into negative territory for their own firms (where one presumes they are experts) in 2008.

Take a Piece of PowerShares' Emerging Markets Technical Leaders Pie

Thanks for pointing this out and it will be interesting to watch it. However, despite the good story it hasn't done better than EEM.

Asset Allocation: Investing by the Numbers

Ahh, old school asset allocation without commodities.

Two Explanations for Surging Oil Prices

@ User 161473
That's an impressive list of famous people. BUT it raises some questions. First, what is the source of this list. Second, you've omitted the list of the nay-sayers - could it be even larger? And finally, the judgment of some is quite suspect (eg, Rick Wagoner seems to build cars as if he believed otherwise).

Not that it's wrong, but this list without documentation or balance feels like hype rather than help.

David Swensen On Keeping It Simple

This is a typical "don't dream of doing what we're doing" article by professional investors. It contains the usual mix of "you don't know what you're doing" along with contradictory advice of the "stick to your long-term goals", be "disciplined", and "rebalance ever quarter". Having just said that mortals are unable to do any of these things intelligently without advisers, it seems strange to demand this kind of behavior. And remember "don't have fun"!

Can't Short XHB? Create Your Own Homebuilders ETF to Short

Although XHB wasn't available for shorting, you might try ITB (iShares DJ US Home Construction index), which I was able to short.

Sharpe Ratios on 2007 ETF Returns

The line is supposed to slope that way (greater risk - greater return), so I'm not surprised larger amounts of data would support it. These small data sets allow one to get whatever result is desired, which is very nice if you want to "prove" something. :-) Thanks for the clarification on larger data sets, and Happy New Year.