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ATrautmann

ATrautmann
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  • Report: Energy Transfer to bid for Magnum Hunter's stake in Eureka pipeline [View news story]
    Boone Pickens has been wrong about the price of oil for 2 years now . Nat gas fuels and a lot of other energy policy matters including LNG . No one knows the price of oil in 6 months or a year . Boone said nat gas wouldn't stay below $4mcf for more than 6 months ....that was 4 years ago. Consolidation is coming by force not by choice . ETE is well positioned to exploit those opportunities
    Aug 29, 2015. 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Linn Energy The Right Oil Play? [View article]
    Dead man walking !
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Partners: The 8.8% Yield Isn't Too Good To Be True [View article]
    I think it's safe to take the WMB deal out of the picture . WMB stock price reflects that now. ETE share prices has also dropped by over 15% . Oil is still in free fall and consolidation is unlikely until the bottom is in for certain . Russia, Saudi Arabia , Iraq, Iran and Kuwait are sovereign entities that will loose billions monthly irregardless of profits to maintain market share and destroy N American producers . Eventually , that is going to impact the infrastructure plays as well. Expect bankruptcies not consolidation . Slumberger bought Cameron and their stock got crushed even more . MPLX bought MWE and their stock got crushed and has not recovered . That tells me there is more pain ahead .
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Becoming A Penny Stock Soon? [View article]
    Toast . The whole purpose of the Linn model is dividends . Why do you think COP , CVX and XOM are so determined not to cut their dividend ? Linn is lucky if it can sell itself and get someone to assume their huge debt load . Once your stock craters your ability to access capital for acquisitions drys up . Linn is a "dead man walking"
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should All Upstream MLPs Suspend Distribution Payments? [View article]
    Upstream MLP should cut dividends ? Then why would Exxon, Chevron or COP not use the same rationale and eliminate their dividend ? It would conserve a lot of cash flow which could be used to pay down debt . The answer : their common stock would be absolutely decimated ! Common equity is essential for capital formation and balance sheet strength . Linn Energy just "blew their brains out" in case you were wondering . It's called bad management . Investment grade is not a myth .
    Aug 23, 2015. 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks To Buy During Market Correction [View article]
    You guys are all about momentum . There are some compelling value companies paying good dividends as well . 4% yield goes along way to take the pain away no matter which direction the market moves
    Aug 23, 2015. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Expect A Bid Of At Least $70 For Williams Companies [View article]
    Capital markets are closed for overvalued deals that have anything to do with oil and gas. Including pipelines and gas processing . There is no deal ...look at the price of your WMB shares , they are down 25% since ETE announced their intentions . Fantasy . SE is never going to be able to swallow WMB . Kinder Morgan is already loaded with debt and if they issue equity their shares will get crushed and they will see their debt re rated to junk. ETE may get a better deal or its no deal at all.
    Then WMB will drop even farther . ETE is the best suitor ...
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, The Government Is Not Lying To You About Oil [View article]
    Bottom line OPEC is done . Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran and every other producer is going to sell all they can to maintain profit on larger volume and reduced margin . Oil is just another commodity NOW and the hedge funds have finally let go of oil as a magic cash machine producing huge volatility . $50 oil is here for a long time folks . Canadian spot prices for crude in Alberta were $30
    . Canada is bracing for long cold winter of very low crude prices and when all the hedges roll off. Well all bets are off !
    Aug 19, 2015. 10:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan's Dividend Is Very Safe At $50 Oil (And Probably Below) [View article]
    Sorry to be contrarian ... Energy in N America is in a giant transition . A Battle for market share with OPEC is taking place . All the oil that was destined for N America is being diverted elsewhere and the world is swimming in Russian and OPEC gas and oil. The commodity price is ALL THAT IS RELEVANT now. MLP's have crashed for that very reason . Go back and listen to Greg Armstrong at Plains conference call . If production declines too much AND there is too much pipe then cash flow to midstream firms will dry up "fast" . Eventually , commodity prices will rise as a result ; The big question is HOW LONG does that take ? 5 years ? U.S. Exporting crude is now not feasible and Nat gas export projects are being cancelled all over the world including Elba Island . It's a "whores parade" and Russia and OPEC are the "belles of the ball" . $50 oil is here to stay . I believe N America will survive and Kinder Morgan will no doubt stay in business but there is a lot more pain in store all around the oil patch yet to come and Kinder is by no means IMMUNE .
    Aug 19, 2015. 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Exposes Shaky MLP Fundamentals [View article]
    Seems that ultimately the demand for oil and gas in N America is the relevant quotient here . As the price of the commodity declines then the demand will increase . It also applies on an international thesis. Bottom line is that those products (oil, gas, NGL , crude or refined products) have to get to the marketplace and MLP's provide that infrastructure . The variable is how much will E&P players pay ? My guess is that domestic N American production is going to fill that need no matter what Saudi Arabia does or doesn't do . De facto "OPEC is dead" and N America is now the "swing producer" . EPD, MMP, KMI , BPL will have lots of demand for their services UNLESS you are suggesting that PXD, COP, RDS , XOM , EOG and CHK are heading for bankruptcy ... Which I seriously doubt .
    Aug 15, 2015. 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Master Limited Partnerships: Plain Talk [View article]
    If ETE gets WMB deal done then we can see real bottom in MLPs . Interesting technical trend emerging . ETN MLPL was up big yesterday and up again today when the Dow sold off 244 points . I think PAGP is the best bargain out their yielding 4.9% and 10% below its IPO price AND no doubt will be taken out by Plains soon to escape IDR's . Plains seems mis priced worse than any of the investment grade MLP's
    Aug 11, 2015. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The BLS Just Told You To Sell Your Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Selling dividend paying equity and buy government bonds or Tesla or maybe Netflix .that is ridiculous . For 50 bps Fed rate increase .
    Aug 11, 2015. 09:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: 2 Reasons Why Shares Of This 6% Yielder Are Still Languishing [View article]
    "The infamous take or pay" contracts will be all negotiated away if oil stays below $50 for six more months . Re negotiated contracts will happening all over the mid stream space . I stay long KMI and PAA because they will be buying the smaller under capitalized mid stream pipes for penny's on the dollar .
    Aug 10, 2015. 10:02 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Master Limited Partnerships: Plain Talk [View article]
    as a gas producer in s texas i can report that MLP's are going to be treated like every other supplier in the oil patch, negotiation of new terms will be the rule not the exception. All bets are are off by June 2016 if oil stays below $50 . Expect "take or pay" to evaporate as midstream firms compete for decreasing production . My guess is Plains is putting the word out so capital drys up and banks stop lending to the marginal midstream players so Plains can start acquiring these assets on the cheep. ETE is planning that same strategy . Some pain now for bigger gains in 2 years . I am staying invested . Unlike the big hedge funds scrambling to sell to lock in ETN, ETF profits in the space.
    Aug 10, 2015. 11:15 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pembina Pipeline's (PBA) CEO Michael Dilger on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Only problem here is the crashing price of Canadian crude and NGL's . Eventually there will not be enough margin for the upstream producers to play the "take or pay" game anymore . ALL oil field services players including midstream MLP's are going to be forced to accept LOWER tariffs . The question is HOW MUCH and for HOW LONG ? Read the EPD conference call . Cash flow is drying up fast in the E&P space
    Aug 8, 2015. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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