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ATrautmann

ATrautmann
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  • Enterprise Products Partners: A High Quality Midstream Now On Sale [View article]
    Timing the market is impossible . But spotting a great company on sale is not .
    The new normal for oil and gas is here to stay . Better get used to it . My thesis is that the U.S. will import less and less from the Middle East no matter what the price of oil is. The Middle East is a political wasteland . That means more oil and gas will be sourced in N America for decades . Renewables will gain market share but that will take decades as well. Thus, oil and gas infrastructure will be indispensable to the U.S. National security . EPD, PAA, MMP and GEL are integral to the equation irregardless of the "fret" over rising interest rates . Fed fears have pushed the prices of these great companies way down and they are too compelling to pass up . Chasing Tesla and Netflix has never been my style anyway ...
    Jul 3, 2015. 11:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan LNG export project applies for FERC approval [View news story]
    KMI does not need to export mat gas to prosper . It's already supplying CQP for the Sabine Pass to export . KMI is also supplying Mexico . As exports rise then prices for mat gas will equalize with world markets . 4.50mcf. By 2018 . KMI will be in the "cat bird" seat when it comes to nat gas . Long KMI warrants
    Jul 2, 2015. 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Equity May Need To Offer More For Williams [View article]
    This deal will never happen . Same as TARGA . Price is way too high for ETE . Kinder Morgan will not bid as it is already loaded with 45 billion in LTD and Enterprise doesn't do large deals like this and they are way too smart to overpay . So that leaves large integrated players and they are selling not buying . WMB stockholders may force the deal on their STOIC management once the stock begins to crater just like TARGA when they rebuffed ETE. WMB management owns less than 1% of the company but they love the cushy jobs and could care less about us shareholders . I own both ETE and WMB but would prefer ETE to maintain the upper hand in the negotiation . ETE is the better management . Wait until WMB drops 10 points and see if that motivates a sale !
    Jun 25, 2015. 10:55 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plains All American: The Signal To Noise Ratio Depends On Where You're Standing [View article]
    Magellan and Plains would be a compelling combination .
    Jun 17, 2015. 12:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: There Is Still Time To Ride This Bank Way Up [View article]
    Warrants A series . I keep buying each dip . BAC is going to revert to the mean and it's peers . I will go along for that ride . Downside is certainly limited . Upside has good potential .
    Jun 17, 2015. 12:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Bank Of America's CEO Be The Next To Resign? [View article]
    Henry Paulsen and Tim Geitner forced Countrywide and to a lesser extent Merrill Lynch down Ken Lewis's throat . Bank of America was the easiest target for the Feds To lean on .
    He all but recounts it that way in his memoirs of the Financial Crisis. I have USB and Bank of America A warrants and will watch this play out . If Bank of America reverts to the mean compared to its peers in Book Value , EPS, PE and meaningful dividend increases then the Bank of America A warrants will be very valuable indeed . Love it or hate it Bank of America is a very large franchise and has tremendous upside vs limited downside . Brian or no Brian i am a long term investor
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Is Getting Hit By The Bears Again [View article]
    Kinder Morgan has $40 billion in debt and $350 million in cash. If you look at KMI as a utility it seems expensive but solvent. If you look at KMI as oil logistics or oil field services company it looks like a disaster waiting to happen . As a utility it's shares price drops as rates rise . Therein lies the rub ; CLR, PXD, LINE, WMB are all loaded with debt . KMI derives fees for logistics and volumes are rising not falling . Producers have to service their debt and its doesn't matter if oil is $90bbl or $60bbl At $60 they really need to sell "move" more oil and gas thus more throughput and more fees for KMI. Maybe RK dreamed this short thesis up so he can buy his warrants back at a good price ? Mine aren't for sale .
    Jun 13, 2015. 11:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Is Getting Hit By The Bears Again [View article]
    There are 10% more hydrocarbons produced in N America this year compared to last year . KMI is going to be paid to provide logistics and storage . Production is still rising . I had warrants which I have kept and added to on big pullbacks . Might be a fatal mistake but I am willing to wait for q2 results . KMI has intrinsic value and an investment grade rating . Excessive debt is all over the oil patch and new equity gets bought everyday and oil has dropped 50% . Is EOG or PXD or CLR more compelling than KMI ? I doubt it . Long KMI warrants
    Jun 12, 2015. 10:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Dumping Kinder Morgan Right Now [View article]
    I assume Williams is insolvent as well since it rolled up its MLP's ? PXD is also a sham (per David Einhorn) . Mother fracker ! N American oil and gas production is all smoke and mirrors . Yet N American MLP's continue to sell debt and issue equity right along with dozens of energy related concerns . Why would anyone buy into the KMI business model ? Or , CLR, SN, PXD, PAA. How can this be ? It's obvious ; OPEC is dying. And N America is becoming energy self sufficient . Kinder Morgan will put up 2nd quarter results in July . I will stay invested until then anyway and perhaps add more . I sold my KMP during the roll up . One small bit of information you did not mention occurred quietly June 1 ..."The United States overtook Russia and Saudi Arabia as the worlds largest energy producer ". Someone is providing logistics ! Kinder Morgan included http://bit.ly/1MNNkn0
    Jun 12, 2015. 01:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Credit Spreads Say Bank Of America Is Not Too Big To Fail [View article]
    It appears that it's Implicit In Dodd Frank that NO Bank is NOW too big to fail . The Volker rule once fully implemented will further make that a reality . It's up to the regulators and politicians to enforce the regulations . I own Apple and BAC A warrants . 2 great investments for 2 entirely different reasons . Apple is dominant technology company . BAC/Merrill Lynch is an undervalued national bank which will profit from increasing interest rates . I like them both for different reasons . Thanks for the article
    Jun 11, 2015. 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia Is Preparing To Prevent A Spike In The Oil Price [View article]
    The big logistics and production variable is not mentioned. Perhaps chaos in the middle east isn't incentive enough for N America to source its crude oil from "anyplace but the middle east". Your thesis holds the most credibility IF Obama gets a nuclear deal done with Iran. If that happens then all bets are off ,and an oil price war will most certainly occur between Shia and Sunni oil producers. I would also expect the crude oil export ban will be lifted in the U.S. . Translation is that the world's oil consuming economies will enjoy low energy prices for the next decade. Either way . OPEC is finished. And a race for the bottom is a more accurate description of crude prices going forward.. Logistically, our N American oil production is much cheaper to use as feed stock for our refiners . In the meantime the U.S. is doubling its strategic petroleum reserves as is China.
    Jun 10, 2015. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Use The Current 'Fiasco' As An Entry Point For Plains All American [View article]
    California needs oil for its refineries . California collects lots of tax revenue from pipelines and refineries. Accidents do happen and are not always the result of negligence . The pipe in question had specific corrosion issues which Plains disclosed to FERC. They provided full disclosure . I am buying PAGP. I expect Plains to buy out its GP in 2016 .
    Jun 5, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Plains All American For Now [View article]
    The Enbridge spill in Michigan was much worse in scope and clean up costs. Buying Enbridge in the midst of all the negativity would have proved a smart investment .
    Remember that Pipelines and refineries also provide jobs and tax revenues to California. Plains is an essential part of that equation. Enbridge spent $750 million.
    PAGP is a bargain ! http://bloom.bg/1dQ75ih
    Jun 4, 2015. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Midstream MLPs Have Underperformed In 2015 [View article]
    I opine that crude oil prices are dragging the MLP sector down , especially the blue chips like epd, mmp, paa. Lower price means less throughput thus lower fees 5 years from now . Secondly, renewable energy is on track to begin paying dividends through yieldco entities in solar and wind . It's anybody's guess but I believe we will have too many hydrocarbon pipes and processing facilities in 10 years and less demand overall for hydrocarbons . Coal is already dying and oil has 10 years left . I will get excited about my KMI and EPD when they purchase their first wind or solar facilities in North America .
    Jun 3, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pipeline in California oil spill ordered shut down, tested [View news story]
    I was attending NAPT conference in Orlando when the spill was announced. The Plains presentation was cancelled of course . By the end of the conference Plains units were selling down 15% . Most of the professional MLP analysts were buying not selling PAA. I bought the January 2016 47 call options . From what I learned the spill was well contained and will have little impact on DCF .
    May 24, 2015. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
562 Comments
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