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How Low Can the S&P 500 Go?

answering Jim Hawthorne ..

> In short, price action drives the charts; charts do not drive the
> price action!

sure and granted, but what you're looking for is a way to anticipate the "next" price action..

> Price action is driven by basic equity fundamentals, which in turn
> drive our emotions from fear to greed and vice versa.

well, I'd like to be explained how "fundamentals" drive 35% moves over a few days (plenty of examples out there) sometimes in both directions!

IMHO, history doesn't repeat, but rhymes.. and so do chart patterns.. why? because it's us i.e. all of us human beings participating in both making history and trading in the market..

and by your own admission:

> Technical analysis is most useful in giving us a visual, quantitative 'snapshot' of market psychology and sentiment

in other words, what moves the market in the end!

don't disregard this tool, rather learn how to properly use it..

Major Indexes Hit Multi-Year Lows

Bill, didn't you mention a BULL market was born sometimes end october?

If as a trader you look at daily market action to guide your decision, stick to that timeframe also in your predictions...

How Much Lower Will Equities Go?

If S&P gets to 700/650, it will be a great shorting opportunity...

Getting there would plain and simply confirm the double top it's made over the last 12 years.. a minimum target is 400, and a possible target (and a rather likely one in my view) is in the 70-200 points range.. it should take some 6 to 12 years to get there.

Enjoy the ride...

Using the Ka-Poom Theory to Invest After Black Swan Events

Looks like you forgot to name your sources for this theory...

I can think of at least a couple of well-known blogs, which should be given their due credits.

Give Me Three Reasons to Stay in This Market

IMHO, markets go through phases: trends favour Buy (or Short) and Hold (your position) .. once you're out of a trend (that is, in a correction), you're in the hands of volatility.

At this times, you can either play market timing (but need the tools and the discipline) or not play at all.

Every season has its tools..

Confessions of an Austrian Economist

"Ultimately, my position on the cure to our economic ills is largely unchanged. We need to save more, spend less and reduce debt. We need to invest in our infrastructure, human and capital, and we need to make things people want - not turn into a mass of money changers and finance wizards.

However, I now recognize the very real need to mitigate economic fallout from this downturn through monetary and fiscal stimulus in order to prevent worst-case outcomes that result from the deleveraging downward spiral. "

well, I guess here lies the prob: "We need to save more, spend less and reduce debt" means getting rid of current excess capacity (SUV, McMansion every other block, etc.) .. no stimulus will get you down that road, only take you on costly and longer sidepaths!

A change in habits is no economic affair, albeit it reverberates in the economy...

Third Trendline Break May Be a Charm

what do you draw your trend line 3 from? I don't seem to be able to find more than just one contact point...

Chesapeake Energy Reverts to Resource Acquisition Mode

Thanks, a very interesting and well structured analysis. Useful indeed.

Origin Agritech: Planting the Seeds for Success

Too small to be worth the risk... too easy to manipulate, sorry, I'll pass my turn.

Is Trouble Brewing at GLG Partners?

well done, great call!.. you made my watch list..