Seeking Alpha

Smiannarone's  Instablog

Smiannarone
Send Message
I'm an avid investor actively searching for good opportunities in the market. I'm a graduate of C.W. Post university. Stocks have intrigued me since I was a teenager. I've been actively trading for the last ten years and am an every day guy currently working for Cablevision on Long Island. I... More
View Smiannarone's Instablogs on:
  • Magnum Hunter And The Oil Crash Of 2015

    As many of you know I have been an avid supporter of this stock. I owned a few thousand shares of which all were sold. I took my profits out a few months ago and watched my initial investment wipe out everything I made in a matter of days to weeks. The other day I realized the stock has fallen over 10% a week since November 21st and broke through all support levels as if they were nonexistent. Today.. We hit another low of roughly 1.61... So.. I ask you... When is it a buy... When does this insanity end..... I realized that I presume to know nothing now. What made them worth $9 a few months back and $1 today. Materially I see them meeting production goals that were set and not sorely disappointing on goals. I see that they are well hedged and doing everything they can to run a successful company. And I see as an investor that was long the harsh reality that no one cares. For your investment 6 months ago is non existent and the paper you hold today if you need the money is ripped to shreds.. It's as good as toilet paper. I don't care about market caps and value. I believe many others may feel the same right now. Across the board companies have been destroyed. The ceo of line energy sold 240000 shares in a margin call recently. Rig a once $50 stock trading strong and taken into the snp has been reduced to nothing. Yes.. Eventually oil will recover. Yes... One day we will look back and say damn.. What the hell happened... The Saudi prince says we will never see $100 a barrel again. It's a ridiculous mark up. It's unrealistic. His moves to gain market share were necessary but not an attach on Russia or the usa. Just business. I think never is a long time but also that.. He may be more correct than many would like to believe. So I sit here having lost 2 years of gains in a matter of weeks and realize that .. My advice to take profits a few months back was great. It saved me from loosing everything. But my statement revised would read as follows. Take out your investment as well... For you make nothing in the end if you initial investment is gone. MHR is not responsible for acts of God and events such as we have gone though this past few weeks. Price targets are nothing.. It's only worth what I'll pay you for it today. At this point I shudder to think when we will gain support. .. If your money is valuable as I imagine most of us feel it is... Find safer investments.. This oil mess needs time to settle itself. Maybe we'll have an idea by the second quarter. May be not. If I'd sold all my shares in the 8.75 zone when I reduce I'd have no problem buying a few thousand back now. But I believe waiting is in the end the best play for the time being. Having lost everything I believe starting over is prudent. Regrouping and learning. So I say to all that read this. When your up... Take it off the table. Don't wait for the next 50 cents.. Or the next dollar. Be grateful for what you accomplished. It's no easy task to beat the market. Today I stand before you hopefully all the wiser. You all know the risks... And right now... Small cap oil companies... And large as well though not quit as bad... are in my eyes get out and wait for the dust to settle. I'm sorry for anyone that held long through this mess without taking money off the table. Good luck to all and as always..:"Happy Trading"

    Tags: MHR, LINE
    Jan 22 2:22 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Thoughts On Markets... Crash.?

    I don't see a crash coming but am open to opinions to the contrary. I feel that logic has indeed taken a back seat over the past few weeks as I see companies with solid earnings such as Google and Face Book get squashed. Over all markets seem to have retained most of their value but things feel as if they have fallen apart. Groupon comes in better than expectations and tanks almost two dollars. I would agree with twitter being sold off as I never understood how it got so high to begin with but over all things feel very strange to me. Is it a correction... Perhaps.. Techs have got a hammering indeed. I'd almost say that they are crashing. I feel that panic is running rampid through Americas core right now and that the big money hasn't left but merely shifted as retail investors make a mess. When I look at the s-n-p I see it trading over 1850 steadily but I see stocks in general down every day as well as the over all trend on declining stocks out weighing the advancing ones. So... Where is the money going? Don't we all wish we knew that because it's still there. I thought perhaps utilities may be picking up as they were way oversold a few months prior. I read once that they often fall first and recover first forecasting perhaps what's going on right now as stocks in general waddle south. So... As one side goes up the other goes down and we stay here at a stand still... I feel I need to see the s-n-p push 2000 before I get nervous and think bubble. I think wall street is very confused right now and a lot of people are making a lot of money by staying calm and buying on dips. I wish I had the capitol to day trade right now. It seems to me that big money is having a field day.

    I believe FB is approaching a very strong buy right now although I see a little more downside potential based on the candle sticks alone and the overall feeling I get from momentum at this time. May be 50 ish. Rationally.. I believe the sell off is completely ridiculous after the last earnings call. They killed it and are on pace to continue the trend. "Sanity and Logic appear to have left the building." My quote of the day.. by me..

    As you all know I am an avid holder of MHR and here again we see a severe sell off. I must state I did reduce my position by half at 8.70/9 expecting a pull back but today.. Around $7.. Clearly in my eyes below fair value. I sadly will admit that a quick drop to $6 wouldn't surprise me at this point but I feel it is clearly a safe place to load up over the next few weeks as I see the shares upside potential far greater than the down. At these levels I believe the word bargain should begin to be considered.

    I do believe this may be hard to read as it is just my random thoughts on a few stocks and markets but to sum it up... I don't believe this is anything more than a volatile environment which has reared its ugly face. I believe that this trend will continue for a bit but that markets will rise steadily. I wish I knew when it would begin to rise again and the safest place for your money may be a bank.. But.. You won't make anything there I guarantee it. So.. If you can handle the shaky waves I think that we are closer to the end than the beginning and that the last phase of this bull market will begin some time in the next month or two. I think we have roughly a year or two before true madness as the feds will eventually leave us. I hate watching things deteriorate but as I assess the situation I don't see the logic behind it. The economy seems to be at a stand still to slightly improving in my eyes and we must remember how bad it was. You see I feel that there comes a point where worse is hard to achieve and I believe we have seen the worst in the short term. In two to five years... We'll we just may get to new lows but.. In the next 6 months.. I doubt it.

    May be I'm missing the mark and everything will fall araprt tomorrow, FB will hit 19 again... May be MHR will fall back around $2-4... May be the s-n-p will hit 1600... But... may be I'll be on point here and none of this will happen. May be.. I just might double my portfolio one more time before I sit back and watch the show. I'm hanging' out a bit longer.. I think this storms almost over.

    Disclosure: I am long MHR.

    Additional disclosure: MHR,GRPN, GOOGL AND MAY INITIATE A POSITION IN FB

    Tags: FB, MHR, GRPN, GOOGL
    May 09 1:24 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Odd Trades And Cyber Scams And Falsh Boys

    As you all know I am an active long holder of MHR and occasionally experiment with day trading it as well. I consider myself some what of an expert on the company being I have put an extraordinary amount of effort into observing its trade activity over the past few years and educating myself in the shale industry. I'm sure it comes as no surprise to you all after Friday that markets have taken a down turn which is likely to continue short term. My specific observation is linked to an after hours trade that occurred around 5:45 PM Friday afternoon. We had a rocky day but held strong at the 8.50 level After hours MHR is usually pretty dry unless there is news of some sort. I have noticed 30,000 shares blocks and larger purchased on days we are due to spike and this usually occurs shortly following downturns and pull backs or on days where we have been trading fairly flat for a while.( Then news comes out a few minutes to hours later a between 8 and 11am that day which these traders saw around 5 or 6am because they pay the right people off or my computer is just a few hours behind.... which I highly doubt.) That being said look at the logic behind an 80,000 share block sold at a 30 cent loss on a Friday afternoon following a frantic day on wall street. No one in their right mind would take a 30 cent hit after a fairly solid close above 8.50. An educated hedge or trader wouldlook at the situation and wait till Monday I believe to drop the load. Usually a quick trade can be made within 5 cents of the closing price easily. So why the 30 cent drop?

    This is my theory and... I just saw a post that Gary will be speaking tomorrow as well which leads me to believe some news on a minimal level. Enough to give us a small bump up. I'll also note that under 8.50 this stock is being low balled and wall street knows it. So... I believe it was a manipulated trade specifically placed to create a low opening this morning of which we may see a quick drop just below 8.00 at which point there will be a a slew of very large purchases made above the 30,000 share per trade mark and at least one that mimics the strange 80,ooo share sell off for a 30 cent loss at 5:45pm. The timing of that trade tells me it was either a mistake.. ( I don't believe that kind of money makes mistakes) or A Manipulation. - (Which clearly would feed into a nervous twitch which professionals would under stand following Fridays over all vibe.. I hate to say people trade on emotion but they do) So... This sell off should create great short term entry points. A trade trigger wouldn't be set off at 5:45 after hours either and the charts did not warrant it. Clearly a foul play if you ask me. Happy trading and I recommend watching the Volatility index for a strong entry in the 10 to 13 range which I believe should grant solid short term gains up to the $20 range but easily 14 to 15.

    Happy Trading

    Disclosure: I am long MHR.

    Additional disclosure: And may initiate a position in the $VIX.X(Volatility index over the next 48 hours.

    Apr 07 8:34 AM | Link | 6 Comments
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.