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scarlo

scarlo
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  • FT: JPMorgan will need $22B under new Fed rules [View news story]
    lol
    Dec 10, 2014. 07:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia: Do The Math [View article]
    Nailed it. US is happy to sign off on this as it increases consumer spending ability and hamstrings Russia at the same time. The big boys also enjoy the opportunity to consolidate the fracking shops during a profit squeeze.
    Dec 5, 2014. 12:56 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Real Estate ETF Yields Still A Bargain? [View article]
    Peter Palms, someday the world will probably end. Until then, we need to maintain a more realistic perspective.

    My home and those of all my clients are appraised (for tax purposes) far less than FMV.

    Inflation is real and is required by fractional banking system as it is ever expanding. Yes this particular system has many faults but it has also produced great prosperity (real - not imaginary).

    Your extrapolations are not founded in academic or functional reality. While our democracy has been largely corrupted it's more "free" than many others and has many self correcting features. It's the best of a collection of rather poor models when the goal is social prosperity.

    And while it's true that we'll have more economic hiccups and potential disasters along the way, humans are innovative and seem to persevere. People will need homes to live in and Coke to drink while they drive whatever vehicle gets them from here to there. I don't believe we will return to your feudalistic ideal.

    However, if we do, I admit that you Russkies will be well suited for the task.
    Nov 26, 2014. 09:38 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman: Every client asking about the same four things [View news story]
    The goal of the world monetary policy has been to let the US take the lead since we typically respond fastest to stimulus. Once our economy is back online (happening currently) we can go strong USD while the European Union can stimulate. Boosting both at once would have been a zero sum game - so EU only gave the illusion of rampant stimulation.
    Oct 15, 2014. 09:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Active Vs. Passive: It's All About Factors [View article]
    I think what you are looking for is provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors. Don't forget to implement a rebalancing strategy overlay to add another 40 bps.
    Oct 5, 2014. 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Commodity Traders Are Making One Big Bet [View article]
    Rarely do I see an attempt at a structured TA approach to macro ideas on SA. And I really appreciate that you've gone that route. I think most TA falls dramatically short of "analysis" because usually only 1 chart is involved and it thus lacks context or support.

    To be honest, I only skimmed your writing, but that's because the pictures do most of the talking.

    Thanks for putting this together. It's especially relevant because I've been considering my options for an entry into BHP Billiton ("BBL").
    Sep 27, 2014. 06:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Council On Foreign Relations Is Saying It: Time To Rain Money On Main Street [View article]
    It's about time an article like that hits the mainstream. Who woulda thunk that giving money to the 'spenders' would create more spending? My only qualm with your analysis is about delivering the helicopter drop to the 80%. Politically this will cause strife since from 80%-99% are also working hard; ie - they are not living off rent/dividends/interest payments. Anyone receiving free money is more prone to spend it and even the top 20% would be happy to consume more. Earning into the top 20% really isn't that much $ and these folks would surely be happy to spend more on travel, insurance products, real estate, autos, better quality foods, and etc. If you want to boost the broad economy, including larger ticket items, you'll have to handout to this segment too!
    Sep 2, 2014. 08:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Will Conquer A New Frontier [View article]
    I'm just outside of Philadelphia and hate the fact that I have to choose between Verizon's FiOS and Comcast - both of whom smatter the mail with promotions and then jack the rates after a new client's honeymoon period is over. I only need internet but the cost is prohibitive so I end up with TV and a useless (for me) land line. I can't wait for a viable internet option so I can stop paying $120/mo. for mediocre services.
    Aug 24, 2014. 07:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Q2 Results: Continuation Of Almost Decade-Old Oil Production Slide Confirmed [View article]
    I think it's well known that over the last decade there has been a dramatic increase in capital, worldwide. This leaves XOM with less opportunity to capitalize on high ROE projects (their primary filter used when taking on a new project). Amongst this backdrop the project types that remain unbid are those where XOM gets to leverage their size & political clout (mega projects) or where their high-level engineering expertise is required (relatively complex projects). While both of these strategies mean higher risk, when diversified across many projects the end result is the higher ROE that XOM requires. While your article seems to suggest a perpetual decline of production for XOM, I'm satisfied with their commitment to longer term projects that are high in ROE. During down markets is when XOM really flourishes - it's then that the lion's share of opportunities become priced ripe for XOM's picking. And their production costs are lower than much of the competition. Their investment & capital allocation model is generally counter-cyclical. They are a cash cow defensive play during fat times and a boa constrictor eating competitors during lean times.
    Aug 5, 2014. 01:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can We Ever Really Retire? Why Americans Stink At Math [View article]
    So your goal is to figure out how much you must put away each year for the next 50 years to retire with $7mm?

    I would suggest that your i = 4% is unrealistic. I would plug in 6% as an estimated real return rate. That should change your savings needs dramatically. This is assuming you will have an equity heavy portfolio. And this would make sense given that research shows equities outpacing bonds over nearly every 10 year period and certainly over every possible 50 year period to date.

    Also - where did you get the $7mm figure from?
    Jul 29, 2014. 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's - Headwinds Continue As Pressure Is Building To Make A Dramatic Strategic Move [View article]
    In a worst case scenario it's already a REIT.
    Jul 27, 2014. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's - Headwinds Continue As Pressure Is Building To Make A Dramatic Strategic Move [View article]
    I've also been very disappointed in this CEO thus far. I see very little in the 'leadership vision' department - a pretty crucial element for this position.
    Jul 23, 2014. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stevia switch creates an uproar [View news story]
    also a Stevia fan. glad to see this change. encouraging.
    Jun 11, 2014. 12:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Penney For Your Plotz? [View article]
    I don't think anyone is arguing that JCP is out of the woods. That said, the rate of bleeding is decreasing, there's been a fresh IV transfusion, and the patient is starting to regain awareness. All due to the hand of a practiced surgeon who's worked with this same patient before. It might take awhile before the patient is dancing the halls and springing into cartwheels, but the vultures could well be disappointed.
    Jun 2, 2014. 03:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Penney For Your Plotz? [View article]
    Ullman ran a ploddingly boring, but profitable JCP before RJ took the wheel. I don't think he's going to promise not to dilute the shares until he knows they are past the turning point. That being said, I think he needed last fall's dilution to satisfy debt covenants or keep ratios high in order to keep fixed borrowing costs low enough to operate efficiently. IE - he did what he had to and won't dilute again without cause.
    Jun 2, 2014. 03:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
61 Comments
107 Likes