mbaglio100's Comments

Research in Motion: It's Time for a Dividend Policy

Fri, 21 Mar 2008 18:47:46 -0400

I couldn't disagree more with the whole point of this article. If I want a dividend stock, there are much better places to look for it-- the _last_ stock I want to "expect" a quarterly dividend from is one with the volatility of RIMM. I can get dividends from price-stable stocks. In RIMM, I want _movement_. Hopefully up, but if it goes down in it's normal cycle, I'll make money shorting it. No dividends, no thanks. If RIMM ever gets to the point where the best thing they can do with their money is to pay dividends, they should hire me and I'll invest it for them. :) I'll make them a fortune, and then you all can make a fortune off the price appreciation of the stock.
(Isn't that the way it's SUPPOSED to work?) ;>

Coffee Prices and Starbucks Stock

Wed, 30 Jan 2008 13:54:07 -0500

"But here’s the bottom line: Starbucks, while in the coffee business, is really in the restaurant business, and the restaurant business is and always has been about real estate."

No. The restaurant business is and always has been about quality of product and quality of service. It's the bean counters who believe otherwise who are to blame for the stocks horrible showing over the last several months.

As you say, Starbucks "product" wasn't so much the coffee but the "experience". Well, _everyone_ who's been a customer for years knows that the "experience" isn't worth the price or the hassle. The stores are cruddier than ever, and what used to be a "hand-crafted" "preimium" beverage has turned into just another cup of slop. The employees aren't trained like they used to be, and it shows.

I am, and will continue to be, short SBUX, because they haven't been able to admit to themselves that they've diluted everything customers valued in the "experience", and therefore they've diluted their stock.

You can argue that milk costs too much, but get real here-- since when is SBUX supposed to be an agricultural play? It's a food/beverage server. It's the sucky beverage and suckier service that needs fixing.

Attention to anything else will only insure my shorts make me even more money as, (Helicopter Ben's interest rate finagle-ing notwithstanding), SBUX heads toward $9.

Lululemon Athletica: Heading for Single Digits

Sun, 27 Jan 2008 11:23:51 -0500

ballsschweaty: "Air Jordans at $185 a pop are primarily purchased by inner city blacks who walk around with a pimp roll with the shoes untied."

Well, inner city blacks with pimp rolls aside, ;> , most of us who are actually paying attention have kind of figured out by now that spending money like it's going out of style is going out of style. When the customers of these stores finally have it hammered home to them that they can't borrow anymore on their devalued house, they're going to realize just how rediculous it is to pay $60 for what in three years will be the hippest car-waxing rag on the block.

Drybulk Fundamentals Remain Healthy

Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:00:19 -0500

Ok, fine, _I'll_ be the poopy-head spoil sport. ;> Good article, does a good job of explaining everything I don't need to know in order to make money in DRYS. I was long all through 2007, made tons of money, and listened to everyone assure me that "it all looks good!!!" as it traded sideways through all of autumn. On November 8th, when it crossed below the 40-Day Moving average, I closed my long position and shorted the hell out of it. As of this afternoon those shorts are up 56.8%. Did you get that? Since _November_. So, whoopie, the fundies are all positive. Right now, _the _stock_ sucks_. I'll celebrate the great fundamentals when I buy the company. Right now I'm into the _stock_ so shorts it is. Oh yeah, did I mention 56.8%? Since _November_? ...Poopy-headed rant off... :)

Is the Wal-Mart Era 'Drawing to a Close'?

Sun, 07 Oct 2007 11:21:09 -0400

1999 Price: $45 and change.
2007 Price: $45 and change.

Consider: For the entire investing life of a significant percentage of investors, WMT has gone _nowhere_.

How, by any measurement, could this be considered a "Long Idea"?
A better long idea would be a passbook savings account.

...wondering why _any_one would ever own this stock...

Shipping Sector Stock Picks

Tue, 02 Oct 2007 16:59:11 -0400

With the exception of GNK, I wouldn't own one of these. Regardless of all the parameters Mr. Dur is so excited about-- "new ships" "diverse business plans" "built-in growth"-- the only metrics that should matter to my retirement are _price_ and _acceleration_.

Global shipping has been smokin' hot sector for two years. While Mr. Durs recommendations have perhaps doubled in the past two years, paying a 5 or 6 percent _taxable_ dividend, Dryships (DRYS) has risen 900 (yes 900) percent.

And even if you were sleeping and missed the first 18 months of this move you could still have gotten a triple _since MAY_!

In a smokin' hot sector, one simply must own the smokin' hot stocks. Otherwise you are holding _losers_. Period. Regardless of what any "expert" says. _Making_ money, (as opposed to _hoping_ you make it sometime in the future because of all the good "business plans", "built-in" growth", etc.), is about owning rising stocks _now_. Get on board. ;>

Disclaimer: I own a boatload (pun intended) of Dryships. I hope you do, too. :)