Good article in that you call out the risks to those who do not penetrate the science and financials in detail, which results in more of a personal gamble than an investment. However, one can penetrate the underlying science and clinical trial details, as well as the basic fiscal picture, factor in the way development stage biotechs work, and thereby make a much more informed investment. Having done this for a number of developmental biotechs, I'm long PSTI, IMUC, GALE, NLNK, CUR and STEM, in order of my assessment of probability of commercial success. I agree that ALL represent a risk of complete failure as well, BUT these 6 met my criteria of underlying science, development stage/timing and relative fiscal health through a biotech lens. I am a research scientist myself, though not in biotech, so perhaps I'm a bit better equipped to assess the science than some, but it can be done. For example, I tripled my modest investment in ARNA, but am now out of it in favor of these others. Time will tell, of course, as this is clearly cutting edge science and technology. BTW, I also like NBS for their dual income approach of producing stem cell's for others' research as well as pursuing their own therapies, but alas, had already invested the portion of my portfolio that I allocate to biotechs and their associated risks/rewards. Perhaps when I make a bit more on one of the others... My main point, keep digging and you don't have to play pure roulette!
Broad Markets, Big Money, Harmful Drugs - Pluristem Takes On The Blockbusters [View article]
With early stage biotech's, it's not about them being able to fund half a billion in cost to market, for the most part none can, it's about them having a strong enough, scalable enough technology, and progressing that technology through early stage trials successfully, such that the right funding partnerships can be struck in the later stage trials. That is indeed how I am making my money in this sector, picking the folks who I believe through due diligence will navigate this path successfully. Not saying it's for everyone, but I love the combination of returns AND the emotional rewards of in some small way helping these companies address/cure some really terrible diseases.
Broad Markets, Big Money, Harmful Drugs - Pluristem Takes On The Blockbusters [View article]
Some encouraging pre-clinical results, but I don't see how they systemically handle rejection potential, nor how they'll scale any successes they have other than hoping for a buyout. But my biggest concern is that the company has not been well managed financially (to put it mildy), and there are a HUGE number of outstanding shares, putting the potential payoff of the technology at risk. My criteria for biotechs includes understanding the mechanism by which benefits are delivered, uniqueness of the approach, scalability of the approach (vertically in terms of production and horizontally to other disease states), severity and incidence of diseases treated, cash burn vs. clinical results timing, total capitalization and shares outstanding (lower is better given positives on the other criteria), likely funding sources (dilutive vs. not), as well as the emotional payoff of potentially curing the disease (my personal values). I believe PSTI is still the best play in stem cell therapies, and I really like IMUC as well as a stem cell related cancer therapy. On the more speculative but high potential side of my biotech positions, I put CUR and STEM ahead of ACTC as well. Am long all four of these, but not planning anything with ACTC for reasons above. My $0.02...
The Mortgage REIT Boom; When Will The Bubble Burst? [View article]
Good heads up. BUT, nothing to worry about for anyone who manages their account on a daily basis. I'll be out long before there is serious capital deprecation. Mean time, I'm earning the 13-14% dividend on AGNC and NYMT + significant capital appreciation that is currently *exceeding* the dividend rate, for a total annual return right now of high twenties/low thirties% (inside a ROTH in my case). I'll happily monitor my mREIT investment daily for this return rate and ride it as long as short term borrowing rates remain low and premiums over book don't get out of hand. Everyone should have an mREIT exit strategy, of course, I have mine, but far from time to execute it.
Procter & Gamble (PG) plans to focus on reformulating its current stable of consumer products instead of developing new products, according to execs. It's a conservative move that worries some Wall Street analysts with the likelihood of pioneering another blockbuster brand reduced. [View news story]
Interesting linked article, but very inaccurate summary. No one from P&G says anything like "plans to focus on reformulating its current stable of consumer products instead of developing new products". Article highlights the lack of blockbuster innovations over last decade. Not the same thing as "plans to focus on reformulating its current stable of consumer products instead of developing new products" at all. More accuracy, please.
Broad Markets, Big Money, Harmful Drugs - Pluristem Takes On The Blockbusters [View article]
Bottom line, I have Pluristem as a key component of my "Breakthrough Biotech Fund" (bbf). I find the underlying science credible, the business model sound, the early results quite encouraging, the research plan solid, the fiscal situation sustainable in near/mid term, and the management top notch. So agree with the author on the potential of PSTI.
Don't necessarily agree with all the negative characterizations of what he calls the "blockbusters", but do agree that many of the cellular therapies represent a much more natural and less harmful approach to preventing, interupting or reversing severe disease states than the controlled toxicity treatments of things like main stream chemotherapy. I research the new BioTechs playing in this space very carefully before investing, and there are some really promising players emerging (IMUC, GALE, NLNK, STEM) that will, I believe, become the mainstream treatments of the future, to everyone's benefit (except, perhaps, traditional pharma).
So, where PSTI is concerned, suggest not throwing the baby out with the bath water if you disagree with the big Pharma characterizations in this article. Rather, if interested, do the due diligence to see if investment in any of the cellular treatment BioTechs meets your own personal investment criteria.
Excellent article, and I agree with the use of fundamentals and technicals: Fundamentals for overall long strategy, technicals to help with entry/exit points.
I'm playing with house money now on ARNA, and am up 3x. With 200% return, the part of my brain that says "don't be greedy" starts to want to take profit, but I read the data and see 20-100% upside over the next twelve months.
Long term, I see even more potential for PSTI, and probably IMUC as well, have plenty of shares of both, but ARNA will likely beat these two in % return in the next 6-12 months, so I'll keep them in the mix.
ARNA, PSTI and IMUC meet my key criteria for investing in biotech equities: genuine potential to change the world for the better, unique and credible scientific approach, small scale positive results, and detection of same prior to most of the market!
FHA Could Ignite Massive Upside In 4 mREITs, Damage Others [View article]
Sorry, but these highly speculative scenarios are not well supported by analysis in the article. In fact, sounded a bit more like a Fear/Uncertainty/Doubt piece on the top mREITs and a weak sales pitch for other mortgage or real estate stocks than well-researched analysis. Perhaps reflecting real concerns of the author, but not convincing to me personally. Believe a much deeper analysis of the mREIT business model, holdings, sources of income and specific ties to FHA would be required to make this case.
The Right Price For Hatteras Financial And American Capital Agency [View article]
Exactly, User 168446, book value is the most fundamental metric for MREIT share price, with premium determined by the other factors, as noted, including the collective "belief" or lack there of in future performance. So while AGNC may be suffering a slight erosion of belief in future earnings, its stellar history still drives a slightly higher premium vs. book. I really like the management teams at both AGNC and HTS, BTW.
I also don't worry too awfully much about modest dividend reductions, as anything north of 10% is pretty fabulous in the current market as a long term income play.
Great article, though, on the other metrics and how they compare.
Mr. Market's Stem Cell Roulette [View article]
Broad Markets, Big Money, Harmful Drugs - Pluristem Takes On The Blockbusters [View article]
Broad Markets, Big Money, Harmful Drugs - Pluristem Takes On The Blockbusters [View article]
The Mortgage REIT Boom; When Will The Bubble Burst? [View article]
Procter & Gamble (PG) plans to focus on reformulating its current stable of consumer products instead of developing new products, according to execs. It's a conservative move that worries some Wall Street analysts with the likelihood of pioneering another blockbuster brand reduced. [View news story]
Broad Markets, Big Money, Harmful Drugs - Pluristem Takes On The Blockbusters [View article]
Don't necessarily agree with all the negative characterizations of what he calls the "blockbusters", but do agree that many of the cellular therapies represent a much more natural and less harmful approach to preventing, interupting or reversing severe disease states than the controlled toxicity treatments of things like main stream chemotherapy. I research the new BioTechs playing in this space very carefully before investing, and there are some really promising players emerging (IMUC, GALE, NLNK, STEM) that will, I believe, become the mainstream treatments of the future, to everyone's benefit (except, perhaps, traditional pharma).
So, where PSTI is concerned, suggest not throwing the baby out with the bath water if you disagree with the big Pharma characterizations in this article. Rather, if interested, do the due diligence to see if investment in any of the cellular treatment BioTechs meets your own personal investment criteria.
The Next Catalyst For Arena [View article]
I'm playing with house money now on ARNA, and am up 3x. With 200% return, the part of my brain that says "don't be greedy" starts to want to take profit, but I read the data and see 20-100% upside over the next twelve months.
Long term, I see even more potential for PSTI, and probably IMUC as well, have plenty of shares of both, but ARNA will likely beat these two in % return in the next 6-12 months, so I'll keep them in the mix.
ARNA, PSTI and IMUC meet my key criteria for investing in biotech equities: genuine potential to change the world for the better, unique and credible scientific approach, small scale positive results, and detection of same prior to most of the market!
FHA Could Ignite Massive Upside In 4 mREITs, Damage Others [View article]
CYS Investments: A Buy On 14.9% Dividend [View article]
The Right Price For Hatteras Financial And American Capital Agency [View article]
I also don't worry too awfully much about modest dividend reductions, as anything north of 10% is pretty fabulous in the current market as a long term income play.
Great article, though, on the other metrics and how they compare.
I continue to be long in AGNC, HTC and NLY.