Seeking Alpha

Robbster

Robbster
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Robbster's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • STEM: 13 Years Of Painstaking Hardwork Will Soon Pay Off [View instapost]
    Thanks, C.Star. Appreciate your articles as well, and I believe there will be some very big wins in the stem cell sector of developmental biotech, that's why I've taken the portfolio approach. All the best!
    Mar 18 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • STEM: 13 Years Of Painstaking Hardwork Will Soon Pay Off [View instapost]
    Very helpful catalyst list.

    Don't think STEM is "better" than CUR, PSTI or ATHX, but is in the mix. I'm still long all these stem cell plays, but I'm also at a net deficit in total STEM position over the past year while I'm well ahead in all the others, so I'm not at all playing short term return on STEM, I just don't see a broad enough portfolio. Much rides on a few key indications. SCI would be blockbuster, of course, and real blessing for the world at large.

    The very low total market cap is attractive and does mean that STEM investment dollars may be a bit more highly leveraged than equal dollar investments in others.

    Net, I think it's too much of stretch to position STEM as top prospect among the stem cell plays, but agree it belongs in the mix of a balanced portfolio, and the price is still attractive.
    Mar 18 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clearing The Air On Galena's Legal Woes [View article]
    BTW, I'm pretty sure the purported "change in p value" is the highly unusual and controversial practice called ROUNDING (p=.035x rounded to p=.4), which, BTW, is a move in the CONSERVATIVE direction (slightly less significant). Sheesh!

    In total, I see this as a transparent attempt at manipulation by a bear.

    FWIW, I've been out of GALE for some time now, having doubled my money running from $2 to $4, therefore missing the run up past $4 and now back down. I'm tempted to get back in at these prices, though (think anything under $4 is pretty attractive), but have other good bets in my portfolio, so we'll see...

    Regarding NeuVax, my read is like many others: I predict success in Phase 3 on the indicated population with the increased dosing, but with lots of craziness in between, like this article.

    Enough BS, on with the work and results!
    Mar 4 11:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NanoViricides: House Of Cards With -80% Downside, 'Strong Sell' Recommendation [View article]
    I'm holding my position for now. What a world we live in as developmental biotech investors...
    Feb 12 03:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Galena: Read, Decide, Invest [View article]
    Glad to have the CEO's answers. Not 100% satisfied with them, but overall still see fairly high probability of success with NeuVax, which is the key point to me. SP is getting closer to my target re-entry point, we'll see. Regardless, all the best to all well intended authors, commentators, and investors on this thread.
    Feb 5 03:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Galena: Read, Decide, Invest [View article]
    Digging a deeper hole, Matt. Inappropriate.
    Feb 5 02:55 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StemCells, Inc., And Neuralstem, Inc.: A Side-By-Side Analysis [View article]
    Like both, own both, but believe I'll see more return, sooner, with CUR.
    Feb 4 01:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Galena Biopharma: Numerous Red Flags Suggest A Significant Overvaluation [View article]
    Thanks, Morty! Best to you as well.
    Feb 3 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Galena Biopharma: Numerous Red Flags Suggest A Significant Overvaluation [View article]
    Wow, this was quite an intense discussion! Too much anger for me personally, but lots of interesting data and opinions on both sides.

    FWIW, I chose to exit GALE at ~$4, for 100%+ profit a while back, not because I thought they would fail, but because I saw the time horizon to next key milestone (late 2014/early 2015) as quite long in Dev Biotech terms, and expected a slow drift down from $4's, so took the profit for other investment. Of course, I was wrong about timing my exit, had *no idea* we'd have the pump/jump to 7! Ah, well, such is investing, especially in dev biotechs. I'm staying out for now, plenty of other plays in progress.

    I do regret the name calling that was exercised here, unfortunate. DD includes assessing articles such as this one, even when one strongly disagrees. I have lots of respect for RS and many of the other posters here, but at the end of the day, this was just another input to consider no matter if one is long, short, or, as in my case, recently out of GALE.

    Now, I personally don't short stocks, as it's just not something that fits my personal definition of constructive engagement in the world, but that is something every investor gets to decide individually.

    I do disagree with several of the OP's conclusions, most importantly to me as a research scientist is the logic about the p value from phase II and how he sees the implications of this on phase III. I deal with statistical analysis of research results very regularly (most non-clinical, but often human use), and I read the phase II results much as GALE did (and apparently the FDA), i.e., as a small-based (therefore higher beta risk) but positive result among a subset of patients that warrants further investigation.

    My personal net is that a GALE position is not unreasonable for folks who believe in the science, and I believe there is a good chance GALE will succeed as an adjunctive therapy for breast cancer, but to me it *is* unreasonable to expect GALE to keep climbing like the run up of the last 2 months all the way through final phase III data. Interim results will be very interesting, and now, with a high degree of emotion on both shorts and longs, is likely to have even greater leverage on the sp. I'd personally be a buyer for a highly speculative position at under $4 pre-interim results, then just have to see what the data says.

    Best to all, and of course, here's hoping GALE succeeds, for the sake of all BC survivors...
    Feb 2 04:54 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athersys-Pfizer Investors: Anticipating A Phase III Trial For Inflammatory Bowel Disease [View article]
    The FMT information from Northwest Investor is very interesting, glad for all the info in his posts. As a scientist, I'm intrigued and hopeful that such a simple treatment will work for a wide range of GI diseases.

    As an ATHX share holder re: the impact of FMT treatment on ATHX, I'm not too worried long term, since ATHX are pursuing a number of indications for their stem cell therapies that do not involve the GI tract. But, if FMT turns out to be the SoC for IBD and CD, then this obviously could undermine the ATHX/Pfizer partnership on this indication, with some negative impact on ATHX share price at that point in time.

    On the positive side, there is also a possibility that the treatments could be complementary, with the stem cell treatment aiding in healing of the GI lesions while the FMT removes the (hypothesized) root cause - unhealthy balance in gut flora. It is also possible that the stem cell treatment could help prevent recurrence.

    Net, I've integrated Northwest's points on FMT into my DD on ATHX, and am still long, but will watch the FMT progress closely and may time purchases/sales of ATHX shares according to the progress of FMT towards SoC status and the resultant impact on the Pfizer/ATHX partnership.
    Jan 23 10:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Athersys-Pfizer Investors: Anticipating A Phase III Trial For Inflammatory Bowel Disease [View article]
    Outstanding quality article, great job!

    Regarding jsiebel720's comment on a stem cell portfolio, I wholeheartedly agree.

    Mine consists of ATHX, CUR, NBS, PSTI, SCTPF and STEM. Based on my DD, this nicely brackets the range of stem cell types, major indications, and different manufacturing techniques.

    Regarding ACTC, like many here I am *not* a fan. Failed several of my DD criteria pretty dramatically, DD criteria are posted here http://bit.ly/1f8gQVj

    While any of the current prices on these stocks could turn out to be attractive entry points if there is major clinical success, I would highlight STEM and NBS as especially attractive price-wise right now.

    Long all...
    Jan 23 01:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StemCells CEO Writes Letter To Shareholders, Identifies Upcoming Catalysts [View article]
    I also expect that STEM will make progress this year given the Phase II results that are expected in 2014, and am very glad to see their CEO begin to be more vocal about the potential as he sees it. However, I don't see it as CUR *or* STEM. In fact, I own a small cap stem cell portfolio, including CUR, NBS, PSTI, and ATHX, all of whom have met my DD criteria across science/mechanisms of action, financials, diversified indications for otherwise intractable diseases, leadership teams and market potential. I believe collectively, these five are the cream of the crop in small cap stem cell development, and collectively are up quite a bit since purchase. So, STEM is just one of a handful of worthwhile small cap stem cell plays as I see it. I'm long all of these, and will likely hold all through the next couple years of results at least, as I expect more than one to come through with marketable therapies.
    Jan 13 08:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Embraces Groundbreaking Cancer Therapy [View article]
    Sharon, I enjoy reading your articles. This one seems to have a pretty narrow field of view given all the issues I and others see with $CVM, however.

    For me, there are way too many concerns with CVM to pull funds away from other, to me much more solid investments. For example, NWBO makes lots more sense to me as an immuno-therapy investment, and I'd even see IMUC as a better "high risk" play than CVM, even with their less than stellar ph2 results.

    Robustly pursuing phase 3 IS good news for CVM, but this clinical is going to take quite some time to recruit, much less produce data. Mean time lots more dilution risk, etc.

    Of course, the weird thing about dev biotech is that even an apparently poorly run organization like CVM could strike gold, and perhaps their suit against their past CRO will build a little value short term, but to me there are MUCH better options than CVM in this space. If I put any money in, it would be with the perspective of "very high risk, potential high reward, but OK if I loose it all".

    To the other poster's points, OF COURSE I wish success for ALL dev biotech companies, including CVM, for the sake of those suffering the diseases that they are trying to treat. But, as investors, I believe we still have to keep our brains turned on and reward those companies who are doing the *best job* of this, and CVM does not meet my definition of doing the best job.

    My two cents. Best to all...
    Jan 6 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StemCells CEO can't understand company's poor stock performance [View news story]
    Right you are, Dave. I could not understand that logic either, other than such a pricing strategy might benefit underwriters or other big players who have direct access to the offered shares, but, of course, not us. Still, I really like STEM's science and that they are moving ahead on one of the most intractable conditions, spinal cord injury. I've neither bought nor sold shares in the last 6 months, standing pat based on past DD and the clinical pipeline. Honestly, based on the management, I believe STEM will break out later than other dev biotechs like CUR NBS PSTI etc., and further, has a bit more downside risk as well, but I can afford to be patient given my strategy for dev biotechs overall and the diversity of my dev biotech portfolio, where STEM slots in at about 7% of holdings.

    All the best...
    Jan 6 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positive Signs From Neuralstem's Phase 2 ALS Trial [View article]
    Great article, Red Bull, captures both the anecdotal data and, honestly, the hope, in a clearly balanced way. I've been long CUR for quite some time, based on both due diligence factors, and my hatred for horrific diseases like ALS. Beating these diseases back in a way that benefits patients, the company doing the work, investors and the world at large is exactly why I'm here and have the portfolio that I do.

    Here's hoping for good results in Phase II when the data does get published, and thanks again for the great article!
    Jan 6 12:40 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
49 Comments
66 Likes