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nfultz1

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  • Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD) says it expect to report 9.8M smartphone activations, "with a higher mix of Apple smartphones," for Q4. That figure is up 29% from the 7.7M smartphones activated a year ago, and 44% from the 6.8M activated in Q3 (46% of them were iPhones). Verizon's Y/Y growth rate is easily above that of AT&T (T - previous), which is more iPhone-dependent, but its Q/Q rate is slower. The smartphone sales, together with strong indirect channel growth, will lead to a slight Y/Y drop in EBITDA service margin. VZ -0.5%. AAPL -0.7%. (CEO remarks: I, II) Update: Verizon PR tells Seeking Alpha the iPhone mix was higher relative to both Q3 (46% of smartphone sales) and Q4 2011 (56%). [View news story]
    I did wonder the same thing. It would be good to get clarification from Verizon. Thank you.
    Jan 9 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD) says it expect to report 9.8M smartphone activations, "with a higher mix of Apple smartphones," for Q4. That figure is up 29% from the 7.7M smartphones activated a year ago, and 44% from the 6.8M activated in Q3 (46% of them were iPhones). Verizon's Y/Y growth rate is easily above that of AT&T (T - previous), which is more iPhone-dependent, but its Q/Q rate is slower. The smartphone sales, together with strong indirect channel growth, will lead to a slight Y/Y drop in EBITDA service margin. VZ -0.5%. AAPL -0.7%. (CEO remarks: I, II) Update: Verizon PR tells Seeking Alpha the iPhone mix was higher relative to both Q3 (46% of smartphone sales) and Q4 2011 (56%). [View news story]
    "with a higher mix of Apple smartphones,"

    That would imply at least 51% iPhones, which would represent about 700K more iPhones. If they sold 56% iPhones as they did in 2011 it would be over 1 million. That's why I said "roughly 1 million more."
    Jan 9 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD) says it expect to report 9.8M smartphone activations, "with a higher mix of Apple smartphones," for Q4. That figure is up 29% from the 7.7M smartphones activated a year ago, and 44% from the 6.8M activated in Q3 (46% of them were iPhones). Verizon's Y/Y growth rate is easily above that of AT&T (T - previous), which is more iPhone-dependent, but its Q/Q rate is slower. The smartphone sales, together with strong indirect channel growth, will lead to a slight Y/Y drop in EBITDA service margin. VZ -0.5%. AAPL -0.7%. (CEO remarks: I, II) Update: Verizon PR tells Seeking Alpha the iPhone mix was higher relative to both Q3 (46% of smartphone sales) and Q4 2011 (56%). [View news story]
    That's roughly 1 million more iPhones this year versus the same quarter last year.
    Jan 9 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T announces the sale of more than 10M smartphones in Q4 vs. 9.4M a year ago. "This included best-ever quarterly sales of Android and Apple smartphones." This would suggest Q4 iPhone sales in the 7M-8M range, says BI's Jay Yarow. AAPL +1%, T -1.3% premarket. (PR[View news story]
    "This included best-ever quarterly sales of Android and Apple smartphones."

    T sold 7.6 million iPhones in the same quarter in 2011. So the number has to be closer to 8 million than 7.
    Jan 8 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T announces the sale of more than 10M smartphones in Q4 vs. 9.4M a year ago. "This included best-ever quarterly sales of Android and Apple smartphones." This would suggest Q4 iPhone sales in the 7M-8M range, says BI's Jay Yarow. AAPL +1%, T -1.3% premarket. (PR[View news story]
    AT&T Sold 7.6 million iPhones in 2011 Q4. This says they sold even more this quarter. That puts iPhone sales closer to 8 million at a minimum. It could be a little over 8 million if the mix of Android and Apple stayed the same. (81% Apple in 2011.)

    http://bit.ly/UyeeDt
    Jan 8 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu (BIDU) is partnering with Lenovo, now China's #2 smartphone vendor (per IDC), to offer the LePhone A586, a $158 device running on Baidu's Android-based OS. The A586 sports a 4.5" display and dual-core Qualcomm Snapdragon processor, and supports Baidu's cloud services. It's the kind of product Baidu needs to see more of as it works to improve its mobile search share and ad sales, and is also the kind that has fueled Android's Chinese share gains - the 16GB iPhone 5 sells for over 4x as much unlocked. (other partnerships[View news story]
    I don't follow BIDU, but after just a quick look at their earnings and price chart they could be bottoming out soon. Their earnings have been growing nicely over the past year (+88% Y/Y). As long as they continue to grow Y/Y, I would hold.

    Their P/E is 20 vs their industry average of 19. Buying more here to average your cost down would not be a bad idea. If the P/E falls to 19 or lower, I would definitely buy more. If earnings grow at just 50% next year and they have the same P/E of 20, the price would be $133.50.

    I definitely wouldn't sell unless earnings growth began to stall. Otherwise it's only a matter of time before this will be worth a lot more.
    Dec 7 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Pandora Rally Screams Caution [View article]
    An options play on volatility would be an excellent play before earnings. This much movement prior to earnings is a definite set-up for volatility after earnings.
    Nov 29 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oct New Home Sales: 368K vs. 387K expected, 369K prior (revised). [View news story]
    Do you have mix of those indicators that determines your overall view of the possibility of a recession? For example, 8 negative, 8 positive is hold or sell. Or is it a weighted system where some indicators are weighted heavier than others?
    Nov 28 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Internet Radio Fairness Act Will Fail [View article]
    As you have been pointing out, I don't think Pandora needs the IRFA in order to be successful. They need to increase the quantity of advertising and/or subscription prices. I listen to Pandora with some regularity, about an hour per week on average in my car. I have noticed that audio advertising has been increasing significantly, but not to the point of annoyance for me.

    1 year ago I would hear 1, at the most 2, ads per hour. Usually it was 1 or 2 different advertisers so not a lot of variety. About 6 months ago I noticed it starting to pick up with more like 2 to 3 ads per hour, and in the past month I've noticed it creep up closer to 5 ads per hour, and the variety of advertisers is much larger.

    I do wonder what impact this will have on their earnings and guidance next week. Their acquisition costs will increase as listening hours increase, but by placing more ads, they will have a two-fold effect of increasing revenue per minute and also, reducing acquisition costs per minute because less time is available for music.

    To reshape Pandora as a good and much less risky long-term investment they need to:
    + Increase revenue per minute.
    + While at the same time continue to grow listener hours.
    + Add some type of proprietary content to protect against competition.

    The success of the first two elements will become more clear over the next 12 months. I'm not sure if the last item is even on their radar.
    Nov 28 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Pandora Rally Screams Caution [View article]
    I cringe whenever I hear people talking about the royalties as a percent of revenue because of the points you bring up. Does anyone know what the rate is on a per play/per person basis? It seems to me that, regardless, terrestrial radio doesn't pay performance royalties while sat and internet do. Isn't Sirius also interested in moving into on-demand streaming, and would like to see this legislation pass?
    Nov 27 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Pandora Rally Screams Caution [View article]
    I see very little reason to initiate a short position before earnings. The price is not likely to drop between now and then. Two quarters ago the price rose 16% in the days following earnings and last quarter it rose by more than 20%.

    If they miss earnings, there would be plenty of time to initiate a short position to gain from the fall, but if they beat earnings, you could make an additional 10% - 20% by shorting it after it rises. It seems like shorting now poses more risk with very little upside.
    Nov 27 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Pandora Rally Screams Caution [View article]
    The time to short Pandora is after earnings. They report next Tuesday. I would watch for shares to drift higher as we approach Tuesday. Pandora has beat 3 out of the last 4 earnings, and if you listen to their service, you'll notice the large increase in advertising compared to a couple quarters ago (quantity of adds and variety of advertisers). That, of course, doesn't mean Pandora is out of the woods, but it does likely mean another beat, which will push shares higher in the short term.

    Long-term I agree with davdws that congress will change the rules on internet royalties. It's not just Pandora that wants it to happen. How soon those rules change is another question.
    Nov 27 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Claiming its BlackBerrys "have been failing both at inopportune times and at an unacceptable rate," the NTSB says it looking to abandon Research In Motion's (RIMM) hardware for iPhones (AAPL). That makes the NTSB the latest in a string of government organizations to either fully end its BlackBerry use or give employees the option to use alternatives. RIM, which just received FIPS 140-2 security clearance for BlackBerry 10, says it has 1M government customers in North America. [View news story]
    The government auctions cell phones all of the time. So the resale value would be important in considering the true cost of the phone.

    Here's just a quick grab of several different auctions:
    http://bit.ly/Qi63NF
    Nov 24 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Claiming its BlackBerrys "have been failing both at inopportune times and at an unacceptable rate," the NTSB says it looking to abandon Research In Motion's (RIMM) hardware for iPhones (AAPL). That makes the NTSB the latest in a string of government organizations to either fully end its BlackBerry use or give employees the option to use alternatives. RIM, which just received FIPS 140-2 security clearance for BlackBerry 10, says it has 1M government customers in North America. [View news story]
    It depends, if the iPhone lasts longer than the BB devices, it could offset any additional cost not to mention that Apple's resale value makes the cost of ownership much lower than the initial price.

    Also you have to consider the soft benefits as well. If the BB devices were failing at "inopportune times" as the article suggests, how has that affected productivity?
    Nov 21 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's not easy to make the iPhones. We are falling short of meeting the huge demand," says Foxconn (FXCOF.PK) chairman Terry Gou, suggesting iPhone 5 shortages aren't letting up. Another Foxconn exec made similar remarks last month. Analysts have reported Foxconn has enlisted a division that typically makes non-Apple (AAPL -2.8%) products to help address the shortfall. [View news story]
    Nov 7th is the ex-date or last day to buy the stock in order to get the dividend, but it takes three business days for it to settle. So November 12th is the record date mentioned above.
    Nov 8 12:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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