Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • U.S. to impose tariffs on solar equipment from China, Taiwan  [View news story]
    Don't be daft, free trade is a myth, and always has been. This changes nothing, and the DOE investments from the Feds have turned a profit this year, despite never expecting to do so. Oil is too political. The Sun is everywhere.
    Dec 17, 2014. 04:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 7 Down Days And Counting  [View article]
    I'm not going to dispute the fact that TSLA may go down, but that fallacy applies to only items of complete random chance. The market is not subject to pure randomness, and is very human in nature.

    while robots do most of the trading these days, they do not do so randomly, and speculation drives stocks, which is purely human and group think sensitive.

    basically, gamblers fallacy does not directly apply to stock markets.
    Dec 8, 2014. 09:22 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many People Really Care About Google Services?  [View article]
    I don't t really see a thesis in your article. What seems to be the general Google service theory is "used occasionally by most, and constantly by a few".

    with enough quality services, you are going to cover most people. Google is playing a numbers game, and winning.
    Dec 4, 2014. 03:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Gets An Upgrade But Is It A Buy Right Now?  [View article]
    " Fundamentally I believe the company to be fairly valued on next year's earnings estimates and inexpensive based on earnings growth potential but expensive on earnings growth potential" looks like you made a little mistake. it's both expensive and inexpensive?
    Dec 2, 2014. 11:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Backtracks On Fiber Threat  [View article]
    Fiber rollout paid for with taxpayer money. Ridiculous premise by ATT, as the net neutrality rules would only be enforcing rules to keep the internet how it always has been. Unless they made the investments after forecasting wild profits by choking out web companies, they should have nothing to worry about.
    Dec 1, 2014. 03:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar stocks continue plunging; oil at $68/barrel  [View news story]
    Looking at the bigger picture for solar, it's a no brainer investment.

    exponential growth is already happening, years ago. Once US and China ramp up, its game over for natural gas, and it's already happening with the new plants coming online.

    long TAN
    Dec 1, 2014. 02:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar stocks continue plunging; oil at $68/barrel  [View news story]
    oil and gas rely much more on subsidies than solar does. end all subsidies to all energy, and solar would take off 100 fold.
    Dec 1, 2014. 02:10 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Put Write ETF For Prudent Income Investors  [View article]
    It sounds like since the puts written are fully collateralized (covered puts), and they are selling at 15% out of the money, this means in essence that each stock has 15% downside protection. If they had 100 shares of the stock, and it lost 30% of it's value, they would lose 30% of their investment. With this strategy, they are only down 15% minus the premium they receive from the put write - so 50% less loss than if they had merely invested in the security.

    The negative to this is if the equity goes up 30%, they only capture the premium from the put, and no real gain. The major risk I see right away is if an equity goes up and down rapidly, in which the put writer loses money, then makes one or two premiums, then loses again.

    Ideally the diversification of the fund will hold the risk down, and the collateral they hold is tied to the interest rates - so it should hold up well in a high interest rate environment as well. Seems like something I may put a little money into.

    Sorry for the months late response, I just saw this article today.
    Sep 26, 2014. 02:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pan American Silver - What To Expect From Its Quarterly Earnings Report?  [View article]
    Silver miners may be in trouble, but a large portion of silver produced is made as a byproduct of copper and zinc mining. Even if miners are losing money, SLW doesn't mine, so they may fare better. While byproduct mining isn't free, the cost is less than it would be mining directly for silver.

    At the beginning of the 2000's, silver was around $5/oz. If silver miners can't be profitable at $17, how did they ever exist at $5? PAAS was founded in 1994, when silver was also $5/oz. They are still around, so clearly at that price they can turn a profit. Accounting for inflation that may put silver around $10/oz now.

    They will have to shut down their expensive mining operations as the price goes down, but the company will live on.
    Sep 25, 2014. 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Stocks Tanked  [View article]
    I believe you're right, for now. I also believe that the correction will continue to be a sideways correction, as global and domestic economies improving, and higher interest rates bringing in more money to loaners, spurring more investment.

    By the time the market would fully correct, the true value will have caught up with the current valuations
    Sep 25, 2014. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Loses Its Shine  [View article]
    If you look at the 100 year price of silver, other than a price fixing scandal in the 70-80's, the price of silver rarely went about $8/oz (inflation adjusted). During times of war it went up, during times of peace it went down. The only bull case for Silver right now is if the US dollar crumbles and hyper-inflates tenfold, in which case you'll see silver to $100. The cost of extraction of silver varies with how expensive the metal is. The miners aren't going to operate a mine that costs $30/oz to mine when the market prices it at $15.

    We are clearly returning to the baseline silver price, and as this article states, will probably level out at $12-14/oz. I figure by 2020 we'll see it down there again. The fact that it ever went over $40 points to price manipulation, and probably also in no little part due to the SLV ETF allowing people to paper trade (2006, right before the price boom).

    The metals remain a good 5-10% inflation hedge. I'd recommend selling covered calls on your positions after 20% run-ups to capture the inevitable slide back down. My prediction is SLV will touch $20 before December then drop back to $16 in 2015.
    Sep 23, 2014. 06:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Bottom In On Gold? It Doesn't Matter To Me  [View article]
    For the majority of the last century silver price has sat around $6. If you take out the price fixing of the 80's, the recent jump is the only significant raise in silver price ever. Silver is on a long bear and will continue it's return to the mean. I expect Silver to be priced at $10 by 2020 with a good bit of volatility between then and now. I would be surprised if Silver went over $25/oz again over the next 20 years.

    The price spikes also seem to coincide with major wars or conflicts. WW1 and 2 saw large jumps in prices of metals, as well as the Vietnam War, followed up by the Iraq war. Gold hit another bottom right around 9/11 before the meteoric rise.

    If World War 3 breaks out, or another major terrorist attack happens, then I'll consider stocking up on Gold. Until then, I'm side lining the metal.
    Sep 20, 2014. 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time For Caution Has Arrived  [View article]
    Which is why the Fed won't. They themselves have millions to lose in the market - more than the majority of Americans do. Are they going to pull the plug on their own well being? I can't see this happening, even though it needs to. Higher interest rates would be the death knell for many companies over their head in debt (CZR, ALU, BBRY come to mind) that are trying to restructure, which means job losses, which means the politicians get voted out.
    Sep 17, 2014. 02:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P posts first-ever close above 2,000  [View news story]
    What I can't figure out is if the 2014 run up is fundamentally justified, or if we're in for a correction soon. The bears have been calling for a correction since 2013, and it's been nothing but up... The problem with crying wolf, is that eventually there will be a wolf.
    Aug 26, 2014. 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco slumps in spite of target hikes; peers also off  [View news story]

    What is it they always say when you talk about investing - "Past performance is no guarantee of future returns"? Chambers WAS a great CEO - the CEO Cisco needed and had during it's fantastic growth through the 90's to the .com bust. He went all-in on the same strategy from 2002-2010, and instead of the largest company in the world, he ended up with a bloated company and several failed acquisitions.

    He had his time at the helm - but the company needs a new CEO for a new era. The world only needs one IBM, and I would argue one Oracle is too many. Playing the "me too" game has never worked out for companies of Cisco's size, so I think in the end, Cisco needs to be shaken up.

    I've worked there, and I know many people who still do. Cisco's problems aren't mysteries, and the solutions are well known. However there has been no execution, and no risk taking to achieve these goals. For example, as far back as i can remember, the biggest difficulty the company has is "it's very difficult to buy anything from Cisco". They were saying this in 2009, they were still saying this in 2013. This alone says to me 'stagnation', which is exactly what the stock has done.

    CSCO is still part of my portfolio, since I think we'll see 10-20% upside when Chambers steps down. Until then, a 3% dividend and a great covered write stock keeps my portfolio in the green.
    Aug 14, 2014. 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment