Justin Kuepper's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/1106481/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1147471/comments?source=feed#comment-14446561 14446561 Fri, 01 Feb 2013 10:02:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1129091/comments?source=feed#comment-14146271 14146271
Again, I'm not an owner of the stock yet and everything written (minus the error above) was based on information from the company, who based their figures on their own figures (e.g. for ASP costs), LEK Consulting and GLOBOCAN. Moreover, I see this as a short-term opportunity with upcoming catalysts than a long-term play.

Finally, if the stock goes bankrupt, as many have suggested, there's obviously an opportunity to double your money by shorting the stock. Price has very little to do with anything when short selling a company, just short more shares to make up for the dollar difference.]]> Fri, 25 Jan 2013 09:26:36 -0500
Again, I'm not an owner of the stock yet and everything written (minus the error above) was based on information from the company, who based their figures on their own figures (e.g. for ASP costs), LEK Consulting and GLOBOCAN. Moreover, I see this as a short-term opportunity with upcoming catalysts than a long-term play.

Finally, if the stock goes bankrupt, as many have suggested, there's obviously an opportunity to double your money by shorting the stock. Price has very little to do with anything when short selling a company, just short more shares to make up for the dollar difference.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1129091/comments?source=feed#comment-14107661 14107661
I sourced all of the data from the company's presentation that you can download in PDF form here: http://bit.ly/Witish (page 16).

The E.U. market constitutes the bulk of the $2.3 billion estimate (as I mention in the article saying "driven by multi-histology opportunities in the European Union"). The presentation lists the E.U. market as $2.2 billion and the U.S. initial market as $100 million in 2013, if approved.

The reference to multi-billion opportunity at the end is implying a long-term time horizon and not an immediate market (as indicated, again, by "could eventually see"). This would obviously include more than the ocular melanoma market to include the same indications being targeted in the E.U. The presentation estimates this opportunity to be $2.6 billion, if approved, over the long-term.

I apologize for the confusion, but it appears there are a lot of shorts in this stock getting very angry at me for writing the article. I am not long yet, and if so for the short-term, just writing on a company that I was researching and found interesting...]]> Thu, 24 Jan 2013 13:28:10 -0500
I sourced all of the data from the company's presentation that you can download in PDF form here: http://bit.ly/Witish (page 16).

The E.U. market constitutes the bulk of the $2.3 billion estimate (as I mention in the article saying "driven by multi-histology opportunities in the European Union"). The presentation lists the E.U. market as $2.2 billion and the U.S. initial market as $100 million in 2013, if approved.

The reference to multi-billion opportunity at the end is implying a long-term time horizon and not an immediate market (as indicated, again, by "could eventually see"). This would obviously include more than the ocular melanoma market to include the same indications being targeted in the E.U. The presentation estimates this opportunity to be $2.6 billion, if approved, over the long-term.

I apologize for the confusion, but it appears there are a lot of shorts in this stock getting very angry at me for writing the article. I am not long yet, and if so for the short-term, just writing on a company that I was researching and found interesting...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1129091/comments?source=feed#comment-14091821 14091821
I don't own the shares yet, but I'm primarily considering it for the short-term opportunity. I think the PDUFA in June and ADCOM in May will provide some catalysts, while the commercialization efforts in the E.U. could produce some upside, if they're successful.]]> Thu, 24 Jan 2013 08:28:43 -0500
I don't own the shares yet, but I'm primarily considering it for the short-term opportunity. I think the PDUFA in June and ADCOM in May will provide some catalysts, while the commercialization efforts in the E.U. could produce some upside, if they're successful.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1120131/comments?source=feed#comment-13996671 13996671 Tue, 22 Jan 2013 08:17:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1120131/comments?source=feed#comment-13996611 13996611 http://bit.ly/V3YVm0. Large firms in their study destroyed $226 billion in shareholder value over 20 years.

One point in my article is that spin offs differ in that most spin offs increase shareholder value (see the studies mentioned in the article). Spin offs allow two business entities to be valued separately, which typically results in a higher market valuation when adding them.

There are indeed many situations where spin offs don't work out, but the article focused on this particular situation and why I think it will work out in the end. I think the split made a lot of sense for the reasons listed above and it will be mutually beneficial to both companies.]]> Tue, 22 Jan 2013 08:15:07 -0500 http://bit.ly/V3YVm0. Large firms in their study destroyed $226 billion in shareholder value over 20 years.

One point in my article is that spin offs differ in that most spin offs increase shareholder value (see the studies mentioned in the article). Spin offs allow two business entities to be valued separately, which typically results in a higher market valuation when adding them.

There are indeed many situations where spin offs don't work out, but the article focused on this particular situation and why I think it will work out in the end. I think the split made a lot of sense for the reasons listed above and it will be mutually beneficial to both companies.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1120131/comments?source=feed#comment-13877211 13877211 Fri, 18 Jan 2013 11:12:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1090851/comments?source=feed#comment-13389581 13389581 Mon, 07 Jan 2013 09:08:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1090851/comments?source=feed#comment-13230061 13230061
1. The number of migraines varies a lot based on the person with some people experiencing only one in their life and others experiencing several per week. On average, I have read that sufferers experience 3-4 per month.

2/3. I wasn't able to find exact data on Imitrex(R) Injectable sales (the most popular injectable sumatriptan). But, there are needle-less versions of the injection that make it easier to digest, compared to diabetics that are forced to deal with needles regularly. I think this is a major potential risk for NuPathe, but they are banking on the convenience and stability (application over time) of the patch versus an injection. As a result, I'm a short-term trader until after the potential approval in order to wait and see the market response.

4. You can see a picture on their website. It's battery operated and can be put on the upper arm in order to hide it.

http://bit.ly/WeOews]]> Wed, 02 Jan 2013 15:16:06 -0500
1. The number of migraines varies a lot based on the person with some people experiencing only one in their life and others experiencing several per week. On average, I have read that sufferers experience 3-4 per month.

2/3. I wasn't able to find exact data on Imitrex(R) Injectable sales (the most popular injectable sumatriptan). But, there are needle-less versions of the injection that make it easier to digest, compared to diabetics that are forced to deal with needles regularly. I think this is a major potential risk for NuPathe, but they are banking on the convenience and stability (application over time) of the patch versus an injection. As a result, I'm a short-term trader until after the potential approval in order to wait and see the market response.

4. You can see a picture on their website. It's battery operated and can be put on the upper arm in order to hide it.

http://bit.ly/WeOews]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/768991/comments?source=feed#comment-7996951 7996951
But, I would have to say that some of their capital ratios don't signal *that* much mismanagement to justify this discount. For instance, a five-year 8%+ ROI is enviable for many companies and shows that management is still making a decent return with shareholder money.]]> Wed, 01 Aug 2012 15:40:23 -0400
But, I would have to say that some of their capital ratios don't signal *that* much mismanagement to justify this discount. For instance, a five-year 8%+ ROI is enviable for many companies and shows that management is still making a decent return with shareholder money.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/642581/comments?source=feed#comment-6184091 6184091
1. Consumers expecting prices to fall tend to hold off on making purchases, which affects the demand side of the economy.

2. Those in debt become more in debt when deflation takes place, since the value of the base currency increases.

3. Deflation means wages fall (or stay stagnant) along with the prices of consumer goods. No free lunch!]]> Wed, 06 Jun 2012 23:52:18 -0400
1. Consumers expecting prices to fall tend to hold off on making purchases, which affects the demand side of the economy.

2. Those in debt become more in debt when deflation takes place, since the value of the base currency increases.

3. Deflation means wages fall (or stay stagnant) along with the prices of consumer goods. No free lunch!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/497111/comments?source=feed#comment-6084251 6084251
As for writing about stocks that I own, I am a writer for other financial publications and that's a practice that's generally frowned upon because it's considered a conflict of interest. So, by habit, I usually don't write about those stocks, although I may reconsider for this website, since it's allowed.]]> Mon, 04 Jun 2012 08:15:29 -0400
As for writing about stocks that I own, I am a writer for other financial publications and that's a practice that's generally frowned upon because it's considered a conflict of interest. So, by habit, I usually don't write about those stocks, although I may reconsider for this website, since it's allowed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/629131/comments?source=feed#comment-5987741 5987741
I forgot to mention the special dividend (wrote this article late at night), but completely agree with your analysis. It was indeed interesting that they issued the dividend despite the debt load, but comforting that insiders hold such a large stake in the company.]]> Thu, 31 May 2012 17:05:49 -0400
I forgot to mention the special dividend (wrote this article late at night), but completely agree with your analysis. It was indeed interesting that they issued the dividend despite the debt load, but comforting that insiders hold such a large stake in the company.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/474431/comments?source=feed#comment-4107421 4107421 Tue, 03 Apr 2012 14:56:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/474431/comments?source=feed#comment-4088001 4088001
The P/E multiple was taken from here: http://www.multpl.com. They track the current P/E ratio of the index and various averages.

I never said in the article that the acquisition has closed, but mentioned in in the past tense, because a definitive agreement was signed between the two companies. But yes, it's possible that the deal could fall through like any deal.

I fully explained REE price trends in the article and definitely made it clear that they fell sharply in 2011. I don't think I was misleading that it's just an early sign, particularly after noting in the first paragraph that prices "rose last week for the first time in four months".]]> Tue, 03 Apr 2012 08:24:34 -0400
The P/E multiple was taken from here: http://www.multpl.com. They track the current P/E ratio of the index and various averages.

I never said in the article that the acquisition has closed, but mentioned in in the past tense, because a definitive agreement was signed between the two companies. But yes, it's possible that the deal could fall through like any deal.

I fully explained REE price trends in the article and definitely made it clear that they fell sharply in 2011. I don't think I was misleading that it's just an early sign, particularly after noting in the first paragraph that prices "rose last week for the first time in four months".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/462431/comments?source=feed#comment-3901881 3901881 Wed, 28 Mar 2012 09:20:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/368421/comments?source=feed#comment-3134641 3134641
I took a look at SmartHeat today and here are my thoughts: The company took quite a hit over the past year. Last quarter, their sales dropped 62% YoY and most of that was due to lower volumes. But the other thing to consider is the fact that they were burning cash (negative operating cash flow) even last year when they were profitable on a net income basis. But as for survival, they have a great balance sheet, so I think they'll make for at least the medium-term.

If China gets back on track, the entire sector should benefit, including this company. But I think there are some better plays in the industry. And China's recovery is on unstable grounds right now, so I wouldn't bet on that anytime in the very near future. ]]> Sat, 03 Mar 2012 11:33:12 -0500
I took a look at SmartHeat today and here are my thoughts: The company took quite a hit over the past year. Last quarter, their sales dropped 62% YoY and most of that was due to lower volumes. But the other thing to consider is the fact that they were burning cash (negative operating cash flow) even last year when they were profitable on a net income basis. But as for survival, they have a great balance sheet, so I think they'll make for at least the medium-term.

If China gets back on track, the entire sector should benefit, including this company. But I think there are some better plays in the industry. And China's recovery is on unstable grounds right now, so I wouldn't bet on that anytime in the very near future. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/405711/comments?source=feed#comment-3097851 3097851
I don't know why you think it's a poor write-up when I largely agree with you. ARKR is a great dividend play, and yes, it would have been good to add that they have no long-term debt.

However, I don't think I'm wrong about the risk. Look at the last 10-Q they filed with the SEC (see below). If you go down to the cash flow statement, they did generate $698,000 in operating cash during the 13-weeks ended December 31st, but it had a net decrease in cash (after investment and financing) of $4,316,000. This is not due to D&A, but rather investment in fixed assets and even repurchasing shares. Not bad things, but a negative cash flow none-the-less.

http://1.usa.gov/wUwE2p.

I don't think it's a big risk by any means, but it's worth mentioning and something any investor should be aware of, in my opinion.]]> Fri, 02 Mar 2012 10:00:00 -0500
I don't know why you think it's a poor write-up when I largely agree with you. ARKR is a great dividend play, and yes, it would have been good to add that they have no long-term debt.

However, I don't think I'm wrong about the risk. Look at the last 10-Q they filed with the SEC (see below). If you go down to the cash flow statement, they did generate $698,000 in operating cash during the 13-weeks ended December 31st, but it had a net decrease in cash (after investment and financing) of $4,316,000. This is not due to D&A, but rather investment in fixed assets and even repurchasing shares. Not bad things, but a negative cash flow none-the-less.

http://1.usa.gov/wUwE2p.

I don't think it's a big risk by any means, but it's worth mentioning and something any investor should be aware of, in my opinion.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/393241/comments?source=feed#comment-3097501 3097501
Second, the term subsidies can be ambiguous. The vast majority of oil subsidies are foreign tax credits that enables companies to generate credits that offset their income taxes when drilling new wells. And the second largest is a tax credit for the production of non-conventional fuels (to get away from dependence on the Middle East for crude oil). Alternative energy subsidies get those same tax credits (alcohol credit and electricity production credit), as well as access to cheap loans and grants (more of what I would call a "subsidy" because it's money given not just less money owed).]]> Fri, 02 Mar 2012 09:53:32 -0500
Second, the term subsidies can be ambiguous. The vast majority of oil subsidies are foreign tax credits that enables companies to generate credits that offset their income taxes when drilling new wells. And the second largest is a tax credit for the production of non-conventional fuels (to get away from dependence on the Middle East for crude oil). Alternative energy subsidies get those same tax credits (alcohol credit and electricity production credit), as well as access to cheap loans and grants (more of what I would call a "subsidy" because it's money given not just less money owed).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/393241/comments?source=feed#comment-3074051 3074051 Thu, 01 Mar 2012 15:30:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/393241/comments?source=feed#comment-3074001 3074001 Thu, 01 Mar 2012 15:29:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/393241/comments?source=feed#comment-3012121 3012121
However, I don't agree with your generalization that "Americans are ignorant" any more than I could point to a few Greek people and say that all Europeans are lazy and dependent on a welfare state...]]> Tue, 28 Feb 2012 17:28:04 -0500
However, I don't agree with your generalization that "Americans are ignorant" any more than I could point to a few Greek people and say that all Europeans are lazy and dependent on a welfare state...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/393241/comments?source=feed#comment-2961191 2961191
And I realize that alternative energies can be economical (that's the entire point of this article, if you've read it). Scale is keeping it back. Certainly, if we had embraced the electric car instead of the gas-powered car in the late 1800s and 1900s, it would be a different story today. Fossil fuels would be prohibitively expensive without the infrastructure and supply that we have today. Obviously. But that's simply not the case YET.]]> Mon, 27 Feb 2012 08:50:46 -0500
And I realize that alternative energies can be economical (that's the entire point of this article, if you've read it). Scale is keeping it back. Certainly, if we had embraced the electric car instead of the gas-powered car in the late 1800s and 1900s, it would be a different story today. Fossil fuels would be prohibitively expensive without the infrastructure and supply that we have today. Obviously. But that's simply not the case YET.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/393241/comments?source=feed#comment-2955991 2955991 Sun, 26 Feb 2012 23:07:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/393241/comments?source=feed#comment-2954331 2954331
But regardless, there's little doubt right now that it's cheaper for a PERSON to own a gas-powered car than an all-electric car. Therefore, those economics will dominate the market for the time being. As I mentioned in the article, this is largely due to scaling, but that doesn't make it not true at the moment. It's my hope that alternative energies do achieve scale to a point where they can replace fossil fuels. And that point is coming sooner than later.]]> Sun, 26 Feb 2012 20:32:05 -0500
But regardless, there's little doubt right now that it's cheaper for a PERSON to own a gas-powered car than an all-electric car. Therefore, those economics will dominate the market for the time being. As I mentioned in the article, this is largely due to scaling, but that doesn't make it not true at the moment. It's my hope that alternative energies do achieve scale to a point where they can replace fossil fuels. And that point is coming sooner than later.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/389431/comments?source=feed#comment-2931851 2931851
Retirement abroad is not retirement in the U.S. Costa Rica sounds great until your Internet goes down and it takes weeks for ICE (their nationalized telecom company) to come fix it. Brazil's oceanfront Rio properties seem amazing until you walk the street and get pick pocketed. SE Asia is great until you get terribly sick from some food-borne pathogen.

Don't get my wrong, I absolutely loved living abroad and will definitely do it in the future. But, it's not for everyone... especially elderly people who've never traveled looking to take it easy and relax.]]> Sat, 25 Feb 2012 15:43:55 -0500
Retirement abroad is not retirement in the U.S. Costa Rica sounds great until your Internet goes down and it takes weeks for ICE (their nationalized telecom company) to come fix it. Brazil's oceanfront Rio properties seem amazing until you walk the street and get pick pocketed. SE Asia is great until you get terribly sick from some food-borne pathogen.

Don't get my wrong, I absolutely loved living abroad and will definitely do it in the future. But, it's not for everyone... especially elderly people who've never traveled looking to take it easy and relax.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/379091/comments?source=feed#comment-2875991 2875991 Thu, 23 Feb 2012 16:08:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/387561/comments?source=feed#comment-2875801 2875801 Thu, 23 Feb 2012 16:04:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/379091/comments?source=feed#comment-2859291 2859291 Thu, 23 Feb 2012 09:30:59 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/382921/comments?source=feed#comment-2828761 2828761
But, I'm not sure that an entirely low risk portfolio is necessary, since risk makes sense in some cases. In my own portfolio, one of the other things that I use is the Kelly Criterion, which tells you how much allocation to give something given its risk to fully optimize your portfolio.]]> Wed, 22 Feb 2012 09:59:48 -0500
But, I'm not sure that an entirely low risk portfolio is necessary, since risk makes sense in some cases. In my own portfolio, one of the other things that I use is the Kelly Criterion, which tells you how much allocation to give something given its risk to fully optimize your portfolio.]]>