MBA by training with a focus in healthcare (specifically medical simulation). Have dreams of someday leisurely circumnavigating the globe and seeing the world from a 35' sailboat. Investment strategy is primarily dividend focused but with a contrarian streak towards special situations and treasure hunting. "Buy when their is blood in the streets, even if its your own" -Baron Rothschild "A risk is a situation that you can recover from, a gamble is a situation that you cannot recover from [para.]" -Erwin Rommel "Skill to do, comes of doing" -Ralph Waldo Emerson
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Full-time Investor, and frequent speculator.
Focus on US Stocks and Real Estate.
Degree in Economics and Finance.
Over 35 years of economic analysis and active investing experience. Retired Financial Services CEO (company had $2 Billion in financial assets).
Macroeconomic conditions and cycle progression are the foundation of my investment strategy. I evaluate the macro trend, and then select investments that will benefit from that trend, shifting the mix as the cycle progresses. Earnings growth is the sustainable fuel for investment gains. So, I look to position my portfolio accordingly.
I stay fully invested during the rising tide of a growing economy. I use leverage until the expansion shows signs of constraints and exhaustion. Rising input costs (wages, materials, energy, interest rates) eventually squeeze corporate profits, making growth less feasible. When I see evidence of a coming recession combined with weakness in the market, I exit my equity positions, reduce my real estate holdings, and shift to the safety of cash and treasury bonds. After the market slides deeply, and after the panic reaches headline proportions, I begin to reinvest as I anticipate or see evidence of the market bottom. I successfully avoided the 2001-2002 and the 2008 bear markets, while being fully invested for the bull markets around those declines.
In prior cycles I purchased individual stocks. However, during this bull market I am making heavy use of ETFs (including Sector ETFs). This is much less work, but results in more average returns. I do purchase some individual company stocks when I think the company will perform better than the average in its industry sector. I do not sell short, and rarely use options.
My portfolio is about half market tracking. I also use sector rotation, selected specific companies, modest margin debt, and 3x leveraged ETFs, within the rising cycle trend to magnify and outperform the average trend. I also adjust the size of my market exposure based on market conditions, and historic patterns.
My gross investment asset allocation target is roughly 70% stock, and 30% real estate (rentals). Current Stock Portfolio Mix (Dec 2016): 46% Broad Market Tracking (VTI, SPY, RSP, QQQ, VB...),16% Homebuilders and related, 14% Consumer Discretionary (VCR), 9% Industrials (XLI), 05% Berkshire Hathaway, 10% all other. Margin Debt is about 2% of portfolio value. Total Market Leverage is 1.08x (down from 1.34x in 2014). No bonds, and cash is less than 2% of gross assets. Real Estate is Residential Rentals, mostly near the beach (average LTV is about 40%).
Over the past 35+ years of active investing in stocks and real estate, my investment returns have been significantly above the average return of the S&P 500 (largely due to market timing and leverage). Since October 2007, my Stock portfolio average total return has been about 15% per year, compounded. My Real Estate portfolio average total return has been about 8% per year for the same period. The S&P 500 average total return has been about 7% per year during the same period.
Chris (firstname.lastname@example.org) is an Hon B.Sc graduate (with distinction) in Science and Economics with over 15 years in investing experience. He holds a PMP (Project Management Professional) designation. TipRanks Top 100 Blogger of 2015 (also 2013, 2014). Seeks undervalued, unappreciated value stock ideas. Follows Warren Buffet's mantra: do not lose money. For a better mobile experience on Seeking Alpha click on the top right menu icon on most browsers and select "request desktop site".
I am an independent, self-directed trader with a strong background in accounting. Trading is a hobby I conduct outside of my career as a CPA. I have a technical and fundamental approach towards the equity capital markets and use this knowledge to identify low risk, high-reward trades. Trading is one of my passions and I am continually evolving as a trader as I work towards my goal of developing market intuition.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor and do not provide specific investment advice. I do not receive compensation for any of the articles I submit to Seeking Alpha for publishing. My articles are for informational purposes only and I do not attest to their accuracy or completeness. Please consult your investment advisor before making an investment decision.
A blog about value investing, mostly in UK, Irish and US listed stocks. Interested in individual company stocks, investment funds, risk arbitrage, event driven/special situations, fixed income & even some natural resource stocks.
Editor for The Biotech Forum (www.biotechforumsa.com), the #2 subscribed to Marketplace investment service offered through SeekingAlpha. Top 5% ranked analyst (TipRanks) 2013 through first half of 2015. Daily contributor for Real Money Pro. Hedge fund manager from 2008 to 2011. Previously technology executive at Fortune 100 firm for a decade. For Free weekly investment reports on small, attractive biotech stocks just register at www.bretjenseninvests.com
Arsene Lupin is a technology professional in the internet & social media spaces, with an interest in finance. He has experience in both big company and startups, and a PhD in science.
My background is in governance, valuation, and accounting.
I try to look at stocks as the sum of contractual rights provided by domicile and certificate of incorporation, and am always cautious about the potential for management or controller overreach.
I also spend a lot of time thinking about the limitations of accounting in presenting reality. I'm especially interested in the application of GAAP to make a company a more or less attractive prospect for investment than it actually is.
I'm primarily interested in long-only equities. I try to avoid announced M&A as I no longer like the risk distributions, but M&A will occasionally find me, when a security I own is involved in a control transaction.
I've been a securities analyst, both in and out of large institutions, for a number of years and I hope to continue to do this for the rest of my lifetime.
Founder of the school of Nouveau Shamanic Security Analysis (NSSA).
"He is no longer an analyst"
--- Sean Penn, 1999
"For he is the Kwisatz Haderach"
-- Alia Atreides, Dune, 1985
"He may have been asleep, but that was before you dropped a f*cking plane on his head and woke him up."
--Didi Giancano, Heaven's Prisoners, 1996
I am an experienced individual investor who has been trading merger arbitrage stocks and options since the 90's. I am a writer with a Master of Science from Northwestern University and I truly enjoy writing articles about the stock market. I try to look for opportunities where the odds are in my favor and there is a definite edge. On Seeking Alpha my articles will aim to provide insight and favorable risk/reward for the readers.However, I am not an investment advisor so any recomendations or ideas I write about in my articles, blogs, or comments shouldn't be taken as investment advice. I recommend using my writings as a starting point to which you should add your own research or that of an investment advisor.
"Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet."
-David Sklansky, "The Theory of Poker"
Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for its investors and then Mr. DeMuth writes about them on StW.
If you like what you read don't hesitate to message me. My research is self directed and my views are completely my own. No requests from Investor Relations personnel please.
I am a retired global analyst, currently busy in investing and writing articles about stocks at several investing publications and websites. I have also developed strategies for creating winning portfolios according to specific formulas.
In January 2015, I was ranked among the world’s top 10 financial bloggers according to TipRanks, which holds financial experts accountable for their recommendations by disclosing their stock ratings since 2009:
Technology and business consultant, who invests in Canada Europe, Australia, and USA. Deep financial sector and financial services experience from both business and technology perspectives. A do-it-yourself income investor, who is always evaluating and seeking high-yield and long-term, long positions.
I am the Portfolio Manager for the RETIREE INCOME PORTFOLIO, DIVIDEND OVERDRIVE PORTFOLIO, and the OIL & GAS INCOME PORTFOLIO at PortfolioChannel.com. I am also the creator of the Cash Flow Retirement Replacement Ratio© used in retirement and investment planning. A Chartered Financial Analyst and Certified Financial Planner, I have spent over two decades managing high-net worth individual and institutional accounts, working as a portfolio manager and analyst. I have also had several stints working for a pair of Private Banks managing balanced, fixed income, and equity accounts.