Locating The Mid Cap Sweet Spot - And Understanding Why It Works [View article]
A perhaps too easy explanation: "Because" Fama&French found, that SC outperforms, now MC outperforms. Everybody invests in LC, and some diversify in SC (because they learnt to do so...)
Interesting article, thanks. But I don't get the point: You say: "it comes down to stockpicking". That is obvious: If I know the outperforming stocks, I can even lever it up by a factor of 10 with futures and make a far bigger profit. That has nothing to do with levered ETFs. If you choose the index that falls, then you loose money. Depending on the path and volatility, you loose more by a leveraged ETFs. But that is just the technical part of investing.
Unfortunately, there is a mistake: while levered ETFs do (daily) or monthly compounding levering via futures is different, since you have a gain or loss in points, not in percent. Path depending you gain or loose more with futures or levered ETFs. Indicator: Strong trends with low volatility favor compounding, volatile side markets favor futures.
Simplify Your Commodities Investing With This ETF [View article]
Nice article, thanks for that.
I have a different approach following the Gordon/Rouwenhorst Paper ni 2005 (http://bit.ly/UBmDZx): I am investing in a (European) Commodity Future Fund (http://bit.ly/TGgsjl) which has equal weighting of all commodities (since May Energy, Precious Metals, Industriy Metals each 1/3, before also agricultural products). Since with futures you anticipate the expectations of all market investors, you need a positive change in expectations to make a profit with future investing. To me it is not plausible, why weighting the components because of their "market capitalization" is the best way. I want to have positive expectations changes most often, thats works best with investing in many commodity futures and rebalance it regularly. Moreover I doubt seriously, that the optimum yield properties are worth the higher TER. My commodity ETC has a TER of 0.3% and it is the only commodity investmant I have. Perhaps there is also an ETC with comparable characteristics in the US?
Vanguard's Benchmark Index Switch: Risk Implications [View article]
What about frontrunning effects? If Vanguard has to buy new stocks (even within the sampling method) that are not in the portfolio up to now (and sell others), other market participants can anticipate the switches before, since the index constituents are common knowledge?
Billionaire Jim Simons' Top 5 Dividend Stocks [View article]
Dont't forget that most of the money in the Medallion Fund is from internal Investors (Simons himself, the Employees etc.). He does't need and he doesn't accept any more money from outside. That's the real form of superior investing! And the 13F is totally useless: He can be long LLY,INTC,MSFT,MCD,PFE on the filing date, and short the next day. Thats just a snapshot useless to argue about.
Paulson Is Right To Short Bunds: The Pain Will Flow To Germany [View article]
Just exchange EUROZONE with United States and EU Country with US State, and you have the same problems now for years in the different US States. To me the US are the same monetary union like the Eurozone is with alle states pegged to the US Dollar. How is that working out for the last 30 years in the US? The same holds for Germany and their peripheral states.
Why Germany Should Leave The Eurozone [View article]
@ Dr.V: You are totally right (and I am German citizen, so it is hard for me to accept the truth...), but you forgot to mention that the german political class is absolutely not able to make any groundbreaking changes. Too many competing political partys lead to a stacking of reforms and absolutly no one has the courage to make (any) long term changes (which would be desperately needed)..
A Tale Of 3 Leveraged ETFs: Part 3 [View article]
Locating The Mid Cap Sweet Spot - And Understanding Why It Works [View article]
"Because" Fama&French found, that SC outperforms, now MC outperforms.
Everybody invests in LC, and some diversify in SC (because they learnt to do so...)
A Tale Of 3 Leveraged ETFs: Part 3 [View article]
You say: "it comes down to stockpicking".
That is obvious: If I know the outperforming stocks, I can even lever it up by a factor of 10 with futures and make a far bigger profit.
That has nothing to do with levered ETFs. If you choose the index that falls, then you loose money. Depending on the path and volatility, you loose more by a leveraged ETFs. But that is just the technical part of investing.
A Tale Of 3 Leveraged ETFs: Part 1 [View article]
Indicator:
Strong trends with low volatility favor compounding, volatile side markets favor futures.
Simplify Your Commodities Investing With This ETF [View article]
Simplify Your Commodities Investing With This ETF [View article]
I have a different approach following the Gordon/Rouwenhorst Paper ni 2005 (http://bit.ly/UBmDZx):
I am investing in a (European) Commodity Future Fund (http://bit.ly/TGgsjl) which has equal weighting of all commodities (since May Energy, Precious Metals, Industriy Metals each 1/3, before also agricultural products).
Since with futures you anticipate the expectations of all market investors, you need a positive change in expectations to make a profit with future investing. To me it is not plausible, why weighting the components because of their "market capitalization" is the best way. I want to have positive expectations changes most often, thats works best with investing in many commodity futures and rebalance it regularly. Moreover I doubt seriously, that the optimum yield properties are worth the higher TER. My commodity ETC has a TER of 0.3% and it is the only commodity investmant I have. Perhaps there is also an ETC with comparable characteristics in the US?
Vanguard's Benchmark Index Switch: Risk Implications [View article]
If Vanguard has to buy new stocks (even within the sampling method) that are not in the portfolio up to now (and sell others), other market participants can anticipate the switches before, since the index constituents are common knowledge?
Billionaire Jim Simons' Top 5 Dividend Stocks [View article]
That's the real form of superior investing!
And the 13F is totally useless:
He can be long LLY,INTC,MSFT,MCD,PFE on the filing date, and short the next day. Thats just a snapshot useless to argue about.
Paulson Is Right To Short Bunds: The Pain Will Flow To Germany [View article]
To me the US are the same monetary union like the Eurozone is with alle states pegged to the US Dollar. How is that working out for the last 30 years in the US? The same holds for Germany and their peripheral states.
Why Germany Should Leave The Eurozone [View article]
but you forgot to mention that the german political class is absolutely not able to make any groundbreaking changes.
Too many competing political partys lead to a stacking of reforms and absolutly no one has the courage to make (any) long term changes (which would be desperately needed)..