25 years experience in Quant research, portfolio management, and stock market data analytics. 15 years experience in index trading / ETF strategist. Risk manager. Mean revision / time series / seasonal studies applied towards general market trends with a focus on long term format.
Retired 42yr old semiconductor industry exec. Currently living in my RV traveling the US. 'Working' part time managing my retirement portfolio and making sure it lasts forever!
Writing a blog about my investments and managing a retirement portfolio.
Institutional investment manager authoring on a variety of topics that pique my interest, and could further discourse in this online community. I hold an MBA from the University of Chicago, and have earned the CFA designation.
My articles may contain statements and projections that are forward-looking in nature, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions. While my articles focus on generating long-term risk-adjusted returns, investment decisions necessarily involve the risk of loss of principal. Individual investor circumstances vary significantly, and information gleaned from my articles should be applied to your own unique investment situation, objectives, risk tolerance, and investment horizon.
I am a quantitative model designer. I build customized portfolio solutions for brokerages, family offices and individual clients around the world. Some of the models required the capacity to trade hundreds of millions of dollars.
I would best describe myself as a value investor looking for entries based on events such as upgraded earnings forecasts. I minimize risk by analyzing short interest, diversifying across industries, blending multiple models of low correlation or using market neutral strategies.
Professionally, I have done a bit of everything in my long life, from playing rock and roll, to developing software, and running a successful entrepreneurial business. But I am best known as a writer of bestselling books about business and health. I write under a pseudonym here on Seeking Alpha because that way I know readers will evaluate my work strictly on the basis of what I actually said rather than who I am.
50/50 Portfolio; June 2016 YOC 10.0% about 6 months before retirement, dividends at 72% of my gross employment income. I created a High Yield Investment dividend generator that contains a 50% weighting between agency mortgage REITs and BDCs.
My current investment method started January 2014 to concentrate on high yield equities that put more importance on income and less on capital appreciation. Investment purchase is based on each individual stock generating a minimum dividend per year. As long as stocks are generating income to meet or exceed my minimum dividend they will not be added too or removed. Currently all dividends are reinvested back into stocks that require their dividends to be increased to meet my minimum yearly dividend. We will see how this works over the years.
1) The REIT sector consists of residential and commercial property investments. What better way to invest in hundreds of properties without actually owing the physical property.
2) The BDC are Business Development Companies that invest in hundreds of businesses that create products and employment opportunities. Here again the BDC does all the research to lend to businesses and the investor does not have to actually own the physical business.
3) The investment selection is based on this principle; BDCs outperform when markets are going up (positive correlation), and mREITs, outperform when markets are going down (negative correlation). This is based on a research study performed by Wells Fargo titled “The 50/50 Portfolio, Milton Friedman’s Only “Free” Lunch. And runs through an analysis in demonstrating how combining BDCs and Agency mREITs leads to sustainable long-term alpha throughout cycles.
4) Capital gain does not apply to my investment method since this implies the anticipation of buy and hope for price increase in order to sell at a profit. I have already stated the HYBRID method holds investments based on cost basis and dividends per share as the method of yearly appreciation.
5) A bird in the hand is worth 10 in a bush, applies to this investment style. The return I get on my investment is what counts toward the recapture of my initial investment cost. I can calculate how many years it will take before my initial cost will be repaid and that investment now becomes perpetual income. I’m not a trader, just a buy, hold and collector (dividends * shares). I can’t count on capital appreciation since all investments will increase and decrease in any market cycle. Dividends I can count on as payment for investment risk that accumulates over time.
6) Update 20140612, Portfolio Plan; Build a portfolio that generates income 150% of minimum required. Example I need 10K from 30 stocks made up of REITs and BDCs. Diversification is already built into each stock because each one contains hundreds of properties and business, so 30 stocks is plenty. Now to generate 10K minimum income I will establish a 50% margin of error (or income default). So to get 10K minimum I will need 15K of income (10K * 1.5). This means each stock is required to generate at least $500/yr each. I can withstand a 33% hit in the dividends and still meet my 10K minimum requirement. That is 10 stocks can go to zero and the remaining 20 will create my minimum 10K.
7) Update 20140729, I do not invest in individual companies, too risky. The following is the logic behind this statement compared to BDC investments. If I invest in 30 dividend companies, anyone of them may have financial problems and drag down the portfolio very quickly. The Due-Diligence (DD) would take all my time to analyze past performance and make judgments for the future, and current events can tank a stock fast. Every company needs money to run operations and for capital improvements and this is where BDCs come into play. The individual company has to borrow funds and BDCs are there to provide the capital. So the BDC is like a bank to lend money. Each BDC may contain hundreds of separate loans going to hundreds of different companies making the BDC less risky than owning individual companies. If one of the companies that the BDC has a loan with goes bankrupt, the BDC will recover some if not all of the loan monies lent to the failed company, and the BDC will continue with a very small disruption to its bottom line. So in effect owing BDCs that contain hundreds of investments (loans to companies) earning a consistent repayment to principal and interest is safer than just owning an individual low yielding company. When you invest in a BDC or REIT you are investing in the managers that perform the DD by analyzing the companies first before loaning them money to run their business.
Owing 10 or more BDCs is like having investments in thousands of companies with a very low risk of any one individual company causing portfolio damage, while your portfolio grows faster with the high yields from BDCs and REITs.
8) I have developed FREE Excel applications for planning retirement during the accumulation and distribution phase, the links are in my articles, (Dividend Growth Calculator... and Predicting Retirement...) As I develop additional Excel 2010 applications I'll make them available to all SA members. We are all in the same boat trying to achieve a better life in retirement.
I am currently a retired Aerospace Engineer. I am married with three children and eight grandchildren. I was born in San Francisco, CA in 1949 and moved to Newport News, VA in 1951 where I lived until I went to college. By God's grace, I received a B.S. degree from Virginia Tech (1972), a M.S. degree from Caltech (1973), and a M.A. - Biblical Studies degree from Birmingham Theological Seminary (2013). I worked at Pratt & Whitney (1973-1986) and CFD Research Corporation (1987-2008).
Now in retirement and trying to preserve my life savings, I currently have a strong interest in tactical asset allocation strategies, and have studied them extensively. I have developed a number of tactical strategies involving the periodic trading of ETFs and, more recently, mutual funds. These strategies have been backtested mainly using Portfolio Visualizer and ETFreplay software. The goal is to earn 10-15% annually with no negative years, and to have maximum drawdowns of less than 10%, preferably less than 5%. The strategies include purchasing a limited number of funds with the highest growth and lowest volatility, and minimizing risk using moving average, dual momentum, and risk parity methods. I have developed strategies for equity as well as bond assets.
Elias Hinckley is a strategic advisor on energy finance and energy policy to investors, energy companies and governments. He is an energy and tax partner with the law firm Sullivan and Worcester where he helps his clients solve the challenges of a changing energy landscape by using his understanding of energy policy, regulation, and markets to quickly and creatively assemble successful energy deals. Follow me on twitter here.
My profession is in biomedical research. I have over 25 years experience investing and trading stocks, options, ETFs, mutual funds, and futures in most asset classes, including volatility. I have a long-standing interest in algorithmic trading strategies. Over the last several years, we have worked towards developing and in some cases deploying with real money the strategies we have developed.
Chief Investment Officer for Stanford Wealth Management, a Registered Investment Advisor. Retired senior executive of Charles Schwab. Retired (36 years) active and reserve military service -- six in special operations, 30 in the intelligence community. Geopolitical analyst. Author -- investment book Bringing Home the Gold.
Editor -- The Investor’s Edge®. In the 16 years from inception through year-end 2015, the Investor’s Edge® Growth & Value Portfolio increased in value from $250,000 to $1,038,453. That same $250,000 invested in the S&P 500 rose to just $422,905. (Past results are no guarantee of future performance; maybe those 16 years were pure luck.) SEE SPECIAL OFFER BELOW! Featured in Forbes, Barrons, The Wall Street Journal, Financial World, Wall Street Transcript, Global Investing, Welling on Wall Street, etc.
SUMMER SPECIAL: June and July ONLY, receive 1 year of Investor's Edge®, normally $189, for just $99. If you are ever not 100% satisfied, we provide a pro rata refund for any issues not yet received. Phone orders only! 775 832-5440.
Owen Williams, CFA, DBA, is an equity fund manager in Geneva, Switzerland and a visiting professor at the Skema Business School, Paris, France. Dr. Williams has worked 16 years in the industry as both a bond/economics strategist with a top, independent research boutique and as a long-only macro equity fund manager. He has a Masters degree in international business from the Moore School of Business (Univ. of South Carolina) and a doctorate in finance from the Grenoble Ecole de Management.
Williams Market Analytics, LLC is a quantitative research boutique offering insightful, actionable analysis of financial markets. The firms also runs a systematic allocation strategy using Dr. Williams' quantitative models. The strategy portfolio can be accessed by both individual investors and RIAs in the U.S. and Europe. The strategy description and 5-year performance record can be found at:
Back in the deep forests of the southern Adirondacks after a six month, 9000 miles bicycle tour. When was the last time YOU went on a six month vacation that cost you about $100 a week. Most of that was for food; and I STILL MANAGED to trim down to 175lbs.Healthy and happy here, ready to get back to the market and writing for SA.
Now you know how I can live on an income most of you call pocket change. Put me in the bottom 1% of Seeking Alpha readers and most certainly contributors. Nothing like hanging out with loggers to cut expenses.
What a great way to avoid the carping on Wall Street. If I read another article about how the market is in a bubble, I shall pull out my hair...which is difficult because I have a shaved head.
Seriously though, I am a tried, true, and original Investment Biker. I've already toured in Europe, Asia, North and South America (see my website below) so I have about 200,000 cycling miles under my belt. It's been a while since I've done a long tour so starting this spring of 2015 I'm hittin' the road with my 28 speed Fuji Touring bike and riding for as long as I want. (Sorry about the Jap bike for all you Harley guys). Think about it...since I usually 'wild camp' in the forests for nothing, my only real expenses are food and some routine maintenance. I cover those expenses by using the monthly options cycle to generate income from calls, puts, or spreads of various sorts. So while you Seeking Alpha trendies are sitting in front of your screens all day, I'll be out riding in the Sierra, the Cascades, the Rockies, the Appalachians, the Catskills, the Adirondacks, the Green and White Mountains...and thats just this summer!
All i need to keep an eye on the markets are a small Grundig AM/FM/Shortwave radio (go to hell you Sirius guys!) and a Netbook for trading and fun when I can get internet access...which last time I looked was everywhere.
Enjoy the bull market which started in Summer of 2009 and should run for a few more years. Ignore these 'stuck in a rut guys' and Obamanazis. Between lower energy prices from natural gas frackomania, lower medical costs and longer lifespans from bioengineering marvels just coming down the pike, and the eventual collapse of slave labor kleptocracies like China (and Chicago), the outlook for stocks and capitalism is as strong as its ever been.
When not cycling I am a self employed stock trader and military/political analyst. Live in the US now, lived throughout Asia (Korea, Japan, Russia, Pakistan, India, SE asia) in the 1990s and early 2000s. Statistics and forecasting, using market based socioeconomic data, are my specialty. Sometimes I am an adjunct college professor, teaching statistics, some finance courses, and earth/environmental science classes online.
I'll try to submit SA articles from time to time but I enjoy READING the wisdom of many of you writers (thanks to many of you!). Maybe I can visit some of you along the way.
After graduating from Cambridge University and qualifying as a barrister, I worked for eight years in investment banking, primarily on equity offerings and M&A transactions, both in the UK and internationally. Subsequently, I spent seven years in investment management as a research analyst, looking at listed stocks globally. I have a Masters in Finance, awarded with distinction, from London Business School and I am a CFA charterholder.
I am now an independent research analyst and investor, living in Hong Kong.
Larry Swedroe is director of research for Buckingham Asset Management (www.investmentadvisornow.com), a Registered Investment Advisor firm in St. Louis, Mo and an independent member of the BAM ALLIANCE (www.thebamalliance.com). He is also director of research for BAM Advisor Services, LLC (www.bamservices.com), a service provider to investment advisors across the country, most of whom are affiliated with CPA firms. Previously, Larry was vice chairman of Prudential Home Mortgage. Larry holds an MBA in finance and investment from NYU, and a bachelor’s degree in finance from Baruch College.
To help inform investors about the passive investment approach, he was among the first authors to publish a book that explained passive investing in layman’s terms — The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need. He has authored seven more books: What Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Know (2001), Rational Investing in Irrational Times (2002), The Successful Investor Today (2003), Wise Investing Made Simple (2007), Wise Investing Made Simpler (2010) and The Quest for Alpha (2011), and Think, Act, and Invest Like Warren Buffett (2012).
He also co-authored five books: The Only Guide to a Winning Bond Strategy You’ll Ever Need (2006, with Joe Hempen), The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You’ll Ever Need (2008, with Jared Kizer) and The Only Guide You’ll Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan (2010, with Tiya Lim and Kevin Grogan), Ivestment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make (2011, with RC Balaban) and Reducing the Risk of Black Swans (2013 with Kevin Grogan). He writes the blog Wise Investing for CBS’s personal finance Web site http://www.cbsnews.com/search/author/larry-swedroe, He also writes for IndexUniverse.com http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/index-investor-corner.html and you can follow him on Twitter (http://twitter.com/larryswedroe).
Dale Roberts is an Investment Funds Associate with Tangerine Investment Funds Limited, a subsidiary of Tangerine Bank wholly owned by Scotiabank. My articles are for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. These articles are my personal opinion and are not those of Tangerine Bank or its subsidiaries. Remember past performance is not guaranteed and may not be repeated. Investment strategies are not suitable for everyone and you should always conduct your own research or speak to a financial advisor.
Born in Dijon, France, Vincent Deluard completed a dual master's degree at Sciences-Po Paris and Columbia University. He then headed TrimTabs Investment quantitative research, where he served as Executive Vice President. He worked with top tier hedge funds to help them incorporate supply and demand information in trading strategies.
Vincent is currently the European Strategist for Ned Davis Research, where he launched the Europe Strategy product under the direction of the firm's Chief Investment Strategist, Tim Hayes.
Vincent likes to focus on behavioral finance - especially on how our collective biases cause us to make sub-optimal investment decisions. Vincent is frequently quoted in the financial media (Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg).
Vincent is a CFA charterholder and a member of the CFA society of San Francisco. He speaks French, Italian and Indonesian and is a columnist on Forbes.
Jeff Paul has been investing since his teen years, though his professional career has been in software engineering and education. His math classes participated in online stock market challenges, providing an opportunity to share his enthusiasm for investing with his students and the chance for them to learn the fundamentals and try to identify the next big stock (they found Google). He recently completed an MBA at Portland State University with a focus on finance, and is currently a Senior Investment Analyst at a wealth management firm.