Ames Tiedeman

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker

Many of us predicted exactly what has happened to California, years ago.

Take Housing:

Back in 1998 and even as late as 2002 when everyone was saying to buy homes in places like Los Angeles and San Diego many of us looked with bewilderment. Home prices in these areas were over valued back then and they still are today. The income to housing cost data shows that the median house should cost around 200k in San Diego. This is exactly where prices are headed. Prices will continue to fall with a few small bounces in certain areas, but you will not see a real bottom until 2012 or 2013. When this bottom is put it you will not see a ramp up of any sort. Adjusted for inflation homes in California, particularly in Los Angeles and San Diego will be lower 15 years from now. There is no catalyst for a California housing boom. California no longer gets the huge influx of migrants from other parts of the United States. These educated folk that California could count on since after WWII no longer chose California. In fact, the educated are leaving California in droves, destined for much better managed states such as Texas, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, Nevada, and Arizona. Georgia and the Carolina's as well. The demographic shift spells longer term, certain trouble for Southern California real estate. The uneducated hispanic population is not going to produce the wealth needed to support sky high home valuations. This will begin to be evident by 2025. Those who chose to call this comment racist, then be my guest. I don't care. The long term forecast for the entire state of California is dismal at best.

Hedge Fund Sues Bank of America Over Countrywide Mortgage Modifications

Forget Hedge Funds. Do not send any of them your money. Stick with well grounded Mutual Funds like Fidelity or 20th Century or others. Back to basics. Do not be a fool and send your millions to a one man shop. Go with firms like Fidelity who cannot steal your money!!!! The track records of the many mutual fund companies are better than that of Hedge Funds anyway. Hell, buy your kids Coca Cola, JNJ, PG, and take the stock certificates and put them in your safe deposit box if you want. Do not mess around with these Hedge Funds and 1 man shops on the street! And stop following all the advise of the ETF crowd. If you have $10 million put 500k in 20 well run, good old fashioned mutual funds! Then enjoy life and look at your returns in 10 or 20 years...

Selling the Short Sellers Short: Another Sign of Trouble

Short selling should never be banned under any circumstances. It is totally counter productive to ban short selling.

Ambac Does It Again

What a nightmare. How these companies managed themselves into hell is just obscene. Managers and CEO's need to be seriously spanked. Is this the best Harvard can produce?

Stocks Furthest Above, Below Their 50-DMAs

I think GM will really surprise the world the next 5 years.

Housing Market Tracker - Subprime Sinks Prime Mortgage Market

Wait until 2009. Then you will see California housing literally go down the toilet.