brachiosaurus's Comments brachiosaurus's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/1110906/comments Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1026971?source=feed#comment-18897641 18897641 Thu, 16 May 2013 10:57:42 -0400 Gold (GLD -2.1%), (IAU -2.2%) sinks back below $1,400 as the bounce since mid-April is officially over. At work here, suggests RBC Capital, is the strong stock market. To participate, foreign investors sell gold, buy dollars (UUP is up big in May), and call their stockbrokers. Commerzbank notes gold ETF outflows were another 6 tons yesterday, bringing the total since early April to 230 tons. Silver (SLV -3.1%) tags along. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1026971?source=feed#comment-18882991 18882991 lol...]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 00:33:58 -0400 lol...]]> Japan GDP Q1: +3.5% (annualized) vs. 2.7% expected. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1028751?source=feed#comment-18882171 18882171
Go to wikipedia and look up what real gross *domestic product* means. You and a few others seem to be confused about the concept. ]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 00:12:24 -0400
Go to wikipedia and look up what real gross *domestic product* means. You and a few others seem to be confused about the concept. ]]> Japan GDP Q1: +3.5% (annualized) vs. 2.7% expected. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1028751?source=feed#comment-18880721 18880721 Wed, 15 May 2013 23:10:56 -0400 "OK, so I made a bad call at the Barron's roundtable," tweets Bill Gross. "I would still buy gold here. World reflating." After a morning bounce, gold has returned to the session low at $1,388/oz. GLD -6.7%. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/942791?source=feed#comment-17669341 17669341
It's is clearly a BERNAnke manipulation, he is selling these commodities, reducing FED balance sheet, and un-printing dollars!! It may be true that the chinese don't want as much of these metals as previously thought, but chinese buyers are doing reverse psychology. secretly they are really thinking about maybe rubbing their hands together and slurping that stuff up!]]> Mon, 15 Apr 2013 19:42:33 -0400
It's is clearly a BERNAnke manipulation, he is selling these commodities, reducing FED balance sheet, and un-printing dollars!! It may be true that the chinese don't want as much of these metals as previously thought, but chinese buyers are doing reverse psychology. secretly they are really thinking about maybe rubbing their hands together and slurping that stuff up!]]> "OK, so I made a bad call at the Barron's roundtable," tweets Bill Gross. "I would still buy gold here. World reflating." After a morning bounce, gold has returned to the session low at $1,388/oz. GLD -6.7%. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/942791?source=feed#comment-17646111 17646111 Right? Who care if china is the largest consumer of gold and their demand happens to be slackening! The 20% drop in gold has to do with Bernanke un-printing 20% of our fiat money, correct?? ]]> Mon, 15 Apr 2013 11:44:43 -0400 Right? Who care if china is the largest consumer of gold and their demand happens to be slackening! The 20% drop in gold has to do with Bernanke un-printing 20% of our fiat money, correct?? ]]> Stock index futures give up some gains as jobless claims jump to their highest level in 4 months, though the Labor Dept, says adjustment issues around Easter and spring break likely boosted the print. The 4-week moving average rises to 11.25K to 354.25K. S&P 500 +0.15%. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/925431?source=feed#comment-17242771 17242771
I'm not going to try explaining to you the value of basic science (even something as arcane sounding as animal sex), because you are a moron willing to make fun of somebody's work without even bothering to see why they study it.]]> Thu, 04 Apr 2013 20:34:40 -0400
I'm not going to try explaining to you the value of basic science (even something as arcane sounding as animal sex), because you are a moron willing to make fun of somebody's work without even bothering to see why they study it.]]> Liberal Versus Conservative: A Tale Of Two Economies http://seekingalpha.com/article/1298391/comments?source=feed#comment-16798151 16798151 Mon, 25 Mar 2013 19:00:47 -0400 California gets its first upgrade from S&P since 2006, the agency hiking the rating on the state's general-obligation bonds to A from A-. "The economic expansion is gaining positive momentum," and the approval of higher sales and income tax rates "positions the state to capitalize on burgeoning economic activity." S&P should ask Phil Mickelson about that one. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/796561?source=feed#comment-14432701 14432701 Thu, 31 Jan 2013 20:40:34 -0500 Ford Motor (F): Q4 EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $36.5B beats by $3.33B. (PR) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/787131?source=feed#comment-14304501 14304501 Tue, 29 Jan 2013 11:38:51 -0500 With 1.2B consumers, a rising middle class and a market that could be worth $80B by 2021, India is exceptionally enticing for foreign retailers. However, in addition to fierce local opposition, the likes of Wal-Mart (WMT) face massive obstacles such as an entrenched system of middlemen and dilapidated infrastructure, which causes $10B of the country's produce to spoil each year. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/758671?source=feed#comment-13649361 13649361 Sun, 13 Jan 2013 11:58:14 -0500 After Mark Hurd resigned as H-P's (HPQ) CEO in 2010, Steve Jobs told Hurd and other friends he feared H-P's board would now "send the company spiraling into chaos," according to BloombergBusinessweek. As Jobs' fears have arguably been realized, many inside H-P have accused Hurd of mortgaging H-P's future. But while some of those critiques may be valid, "they fail to capture why HP’s prospects got so much worse so quickly after Hurd left," the magazine notes The constant through it all has been chairman Ray Lane, accused at times of filling H-P's oft-criticized board with cronies. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/758601?source=feed#comment-13649291 13649291 Sun, 13 Jan 2013 11:56:19 -0500 Dec. Chicago PMI: 51.6 vs. 51.0 expected, 50.4 prior. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/737731?source=feed#comment-13079801 13079801 Fri, 28 Dec 2012 18:17:55 -0500 Nov. New Home Sales: 377K vs. 375K expected, 368K prior. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/736561?source=feed#comment-13051391 13051391 Fri, 28 Dec 2012 03:04:03 -0500 A preliminary review by Michigan has found that Detroit has a "serious financial problem," with reporting problems causing cash-flow projections to significantly oscillate on a monthly basis. The review could lead to the declaration of a fiscal emergency and prompt the appointment of an emergency financial manager. A municipal filing for bankruptcy protection, the biggest in U.S. history, could ultimately ensue. (previous) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/722261?source=feed#comment-12705331 12705331 Mon, 17 Dec 2012 17:39:10 -0500 A preliminary review by Michigan has found that Detroit has a "serious financial problem," with reporting problems causing cash-flow projections to significantly oscillate on a monthly basis. The review could lead to the declaration of a fiscal emergency and prompt the appointment of an emergency financial manager. A municipal filing for bankruptcy protection, the biggest in U.S. history, could ultimately ensue. (previous) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/722261?source=feed#comment-12696831 12696831 Red states are bailed out by the Federal Gov, each and every year.]]> Mon, 17 Dec 2012 14:29:10 -0500 Red states are bailed out by the Federal Gov, each and every year.]]> A preliminary review by Michigan has found that Detroit has a "serious financial problem," with reporting problems causing cash-flow projections to significantly oscillate on a monthly basis. The review could lead to the declaration of a fiscal emergency and prompt the appointment of an emergency financial manager. A municipal filing for bankruptcy protection, the biggest in U.S. history, could ultimately ensue. (previous) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/722261?source=feed#comment-12670541 12670541 http://bit.ly/YxBGDW]]> Sun, 16 Dec 2012 23:54:27 -0500 http://bit.ly/YxBGDW]]> A preliminary review by Michigan has found that Detroit has a "serious financial problem," with reporting problems causing cash-flow projections to significantly oscillate on a monthly basis. The review could lead to the declaration of a fiscal emergency and prompt the appointment of an emergency financial manager. A municipal filing for bankruptcy protection, the biggest in U.S. history, could ultimately ensue. (previous) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/722261?source=feed#comment-12670411 12670411 Every single year, you can count on states like Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Alaska receiving far more in Federal spending than they actually pay in Federal taxes. Contrast that with states like Michigan, Illinois, and California, which continually send more in Federal tax dollars than they receive in spending.
Despite your fears, the facts show that the real moochers are the Red states.]]> Sun, 16 Dec 2012 23:45:39 -0500 Every single year, you can count on states like Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Alaska receiving far more in Federal spending than they actually pay in Federal taxes. Contrast that with states like Michigan, Illinois, and California, which continually send more in Federal tax dollars than they receive in spending.
Despite your fears, the facts show that the real moochers are the Red states.]]> Ahead of the Fed maybe about to announce yet more intervention into the markets, don't miss this piece on the "MIT mafia" running monetary policy around the globe. Bonds forged in those classrooms continue to expansive dinners at Basel, where many of the policies to fight the financial crisis were debated and created. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/715011?source=feed#comment-12525701 12525701 Wed, 12 Dec 2012 12:31:26 -0500 Valuation Is Not The Reason To Short Amazon.com http://seekingalpha.com/article/1043901/comments?source=feed#comment-12250831 12250831 Tue, 04 Dec 2012 17:09:51 -0500 More on the Q3 GDP revision: The composition of the gain is a a bit weak. Real personal consumption expenditures rise just 1.4% vs. 2% in the first estimate. Real final sales +1.9% vs. 2.1%. Inventories added about three-quarters of a percentage point to the print. S&P 500 futures remain +0.6%. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/690521?source=feed#comment-12075791 12075791 Thu, 29 Nov 2012 12:11:36 -0500 More on Case-Shiller: For the 3rd consecutive month, all 20 tracked cities posted monthly price gains. Not seasonally adjusted, prices rose 1.6% in July from June, following a 2.3% gain in June from May. On a Y/Y basis, Atlanta remains the outlier - by a wide margin - on the downside, with prices off 9.9%. Phoenix leads the gainers, up 16.6% Y/Y. (full report, .pdf) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/555031?source=feed#comment-9870721 9870721 Wed, 26 Sep 2012 05:17:46 -0400 Just How Large Is QEInfinity? http://seekingalpha.com/article/875971/comments?source=feed#comment-9661861 9661861 But I'll check it out when I get a chance!]]> Thu, 20 Sep 2012 10:15:32 -0400 But I'll check it out when I get a chance!]]> Just How Large Is QEInfinity? http://seekingalpha.com/article/875971/comments?source=feed#comment-9661491 9661491 If the transmission factor is just that investors get displaced out of "risk-free" assets into riskier assets, I'm not sure I completely buy it. $400+ billion/ year of displaced assets is large, but tiny compared to the universe of assets out there. Plus, I don't know if evidence really supports the idea that banks re-deploy a large fraction of the cash that they receive from selling MBS to the Fed.
cheers]]> Thu, 20 Sep 2012 10:08:13 -0400 If the transmission factor is just that investors get displaced out of "risk-free" assets into riskier assets, I'm not sure I completely buy it. $400+ billion/ year of displaced assets is large, but tiny compared to the universe of assets out there. Plus, I don't know if evidence really supports the idea that banks re-deploy a large fraction of the cash that they receive from selling MBS to the Fed.
cheers]]> Just How Large Is QEInfinity? http://seekingalpha.com/article/875971/comments?source=feed#comment-9651541 9651541 Thu, 20 Sep 2012 03:15:42 -0400 Just How Large Is QEInfinity? http://seekingalpha.com/article/875971/comments?source=feed#comment-9651511 9651511 In the current environment, do you really see QE as being inflationary? I realize a lot of things are over-priced, but I'm not exactly sure why you attribute this to QE. After all, QE adds cash into the private sector, but at the same time removes an equal amount of assets from the private sector. This leaves the private sector no wealthier (in a nominal sense), and in the current environment doesn't really light a fire of lending or spending.

What exactly is the transmission mechanism that you see that causes QE to boost the SP 500? Is it psychological? The money that the Fed prints is not exactly leading to extra spending or lending in the economy, unless you are arguing that it induces the Federal government to spend substantially more than it would otherwise.]]> Thu, 20 Sep 2012 03:08:08 -0400 In the current environment, do you really see QE as being inflationary? I realize a lot of things are over-priced, but I'm not exactly sure why you attribute this to QE. After all, QE adds cash into the private sector, but at the same time removes an equal amount of assets from the private sector. This leaves the private sector no wealthier (in a nominal sense), and in the current environment doesn't really light a fire of lending or spending.

What exactly is the transmission mechanism that you see that causes QE to boost the SP 500? Is it psychological? The money that the Fed prints is not exactly leading to extra spending or lending in the economy, unless you are arguing that it induces the Federal government to spend substantially more than it would otherwise.]]> Bernanke: "We're looking for something that brings unemployment down in a sustained way." Asked about further tools if QE3 doesn't work, he doesn't go beyond what's already been used: Communications, Treasury purchases, MBS purchases. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/537961?source=feed#comment-9437081 9437081 Fri, 14 Sep 2012 02:51:11 -0400 Yes, There Is A (High-Yield) Dividend Bubble http://seekingalpha.com/article/829851/comments?source=feed#comment-8952011 8952011
Thanks for your warnings. Unfortunately, I've already learned them hard way!]]> Thu, 30 Aug 2012 15:23:04 -0400
Thanks for your warnings. Unfortunately, I've already learned them hard way!]]> Yes, There Is A (High-Yield) Dividend Bubble http://seekingalpha.com/article/829851/comments?source=feed#comment-8946451 8946451 if the premium to NAV stays constant at 80%, then the total return on PGP will underperform its total return on NAV (which can be closely reproduced by PSOCX) by 8% per year. That is alpha, assuming the premium doesn't increase.

It is precisely because the distribution is so high which makes it worthwhile to short closed end funds that trade at a monster premium. I love paying the dividend, because the dividend is the catalyst to getting value from the short. I wish they would double, or triple the dividend, or even make the dividend 100% of NAV. Then I'd extract the 80% premium to NAV immediately.]]> Thu, 30 Aug 2012 13:04:24 -0400 if the premium to NAV stays constant at 80%, then the total return on PGP will underperform its total return on NAV (which can be closely reproduced by PSOCX) by 8% per year. That is alpha, assuming the premium doesn't increase.

It is precisely because the distribution is so high which makes it worthwhile to short closed end funds that trade at a monster premium. I love paying the dividend, because the dividend is the catalyst to getting value from the short. I wish they would double, or triple the dividend, or even make the dividend 100% of NAV. Then I'd extract the 80% premium to NAV immediately.]]> Iron Ore Crash Worsens http://seekingalpha.com/article/835821/comments?source=feed#comment-8918361 8918361 Wed, 29 Aug 2012 18:24:01 -0400