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brachiosaurus

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  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    about the fair share business. I'd be happy with it, if the tax brackets were indexed on a state-to-state level based on cost of living (but, of course, this would remove a lot of the state-to-state fiscal transfers).
    May 13 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    it is happening, but domestic migration is only 1-2%/yr effect and not the major cause of population changes, and it is not due to taxation whatsoever.
    May 13 10:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    well done getting out during a market peak!
    I am refreshed as well, arguing with someone who is smart, but more importantly attempts to be intellectually honest.

    I think my analogy is good, although admittedly I'm no sociologist. A particularly cool piece of evidence for the analogy is looking at the net flows of wealthy people between poorer states with high taxes (not many by the way), and richer states with low taxes (also, not many of these). One stark example is the net flow between Hawaii (poor) and Alaska (rich), for which the lobby-group funded "studies" would prepare you to believe there would be an overwhelming flow from Hawaii (high tax) to Alaska (low tax). In fact there is a slight flow in the opposite direction.

    The "study" should be ringing alarm bells to you because it is obvious that they haven't controlled for ongoing changes in the level of urbanization, or ongoing changes in productivity, or even obvious situations like resource booms. TX and other inflow states are only now (slowly) catching up in levels of urbanization, and levels of productivity, that are seen in the outflow states (and they are still pretty far behind, so the trends will continue barring some major economic forces). It has nothing to do with taxation, except for the fact that the states that have more ground to cover are generally those that tend to be red state. Additionally, in some particular low density, resource rich, red states, like Alaska, TX, OK, ND, the relative level of job creation is further boosted by natural resources.

    by the way, in Florida I think there is currently a net domestic outflow right now.
    May 13 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    In summary, there is good evidence that rich people don't leave states because they are upset with their taxes.
    BTW, there is an exception for high income people in traveling professions (like famous sports athletes) who don't necessarily spend a huge fraction of their time in the place of residence.
    May 13 08:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    I've read the article and I'm familiar with the migration myth that you are pushing. The myth incorrectly associates causation with correlation. In fact, a major reason for this net wealth migration/people migration is because high wealth/high density regions naturally tend to have a net diffusion of people to poorer/lower density. It takes strong economic forces to counteract this diffusion (e.g., the industrialisation of the western countries in the 19th/early 20th century, and currently happening in China). It seems you are a smart fellow, so I think you'll appreciate that there is an analogy of this diffusion with the 2nd law of thermodynamics.

    The particular case of Santa Clara County is a good example because this county has been the scene of one of the greatest bouts of wealth creation. There is net migration of wealthy out of Santa Clara County, but this is almost a mathematical certainty when the amount of wealth created there greatly exceeded most of the rest of the country. Now I don't deny that FL or TX are creating a lot of wealth right now compared to other places, but really the effect you are seeing is that generally poorer states are in the gradual process of catching up with the richest states. It is no coincidence that the 5 states with highest net flows are the richest per capita (if discussing wealth flow), and highest population density (if discussing population flow).

    Here is an article, written by sociologists who properly control for non-salient and salient factors. Honestly compare the quality of the academic article to the study by an industry lobbying group.
    http://goo.gl/eRIj8

    Did you really move to Florida because of you didn't like your income tax rate?
    May 13 08:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    I don't think this new form of evasion is much of a risk. If they responded to simple, naive costs like that, they most likely wouldn't be in CA in the first place, where they must pay relatively high real estate costs just to live here. They're welcome to leave the beaches, mountains, universities, and great cities, but of course most wealthy (if they are already here) wouldn't even consider it.
    May 13 07:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    of course, you feast on a budget gap that represents less than 1% of California GDP.

    these so called boondoggles include the best university system in the world, and attempts at creating world-class infrastructure.

    There's a reason that the most innovative companies in the country are headquartered in California, and not Georgia. Note also that CA has a 25% higher GDP per capita than Georgia.
    May 13 06:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    This wouldn't be an issue, if only California received a tax rebate from the Federal government for the fact that it receives less than 80c for every $1 it sends to the Federal government.

    http://bit.ly/vi8oS6

    Or better yet, why don't states like Alaska, Alabama, or Oklahoma just send a check for the proportion of funds that they leach from California. That'll help. Then CA can get to the business of cracking down on the corporations and millionaires that evade taxes via Prop 13.
    May 13 06:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls have been unable to get much done, and almost all major indices have now broken through key uptrend lines from Oct. 2011 lows. While it's still early to peg this as a major trend change, prices are likely to meander lower in the short term.  [View news story]
    the easiest way to exploit other technical analysts is to write books or newsletters on the subject, or to write software with blinking lights and tools to investigate dark cloud cover, triangle formations, and head and shoulder patterns, and couple that with a trading platform.
    May 13 12:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls have been unable to get much done, and almost all major indices have now broken through key uptrend lines from Oct. 2011 lows. While it's still early to peg this as a major trend change, prices are likely to meander lower in the short term.  [View news story]
    technical analysis (aside from low frequency momentum) has little place in the investment discussion because it is all a silly fraud. there's a reason that nobody consistently makes money from it, and nobody is rich from it (aside from book writers). the chart industry was created and continues to be pushed by brokers, because it is a fantastic revenue source.
    May 12 09:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain Is Taking The Irish Route [View article]
    USA, UK, and Japan policy leave a ton to be desired, but at least they can be happy that their central banks aren't as dumb as Europe's
    May 11 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury sells $16B in 30-year bonds at 3.09%, strength in the week's last major auction. Bid-to-cover ratio of 2.73, vs. a recent average of 2.35; indirect bidders take 33.8%, vs. a recent 25.7%. Direct bidders take 15.4%, vs. a recent 14.7%.  [View news story]
    i wouldn't lend to myself for 30 yrs at 3%, but I'd lend to Japan at the rate in a second, because I could immediately flip the bond at a huge profit.
    May 10 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury sells $16B in 30-year bonds at 3.09%, strength in the week's last major auction. Bid-to-cover ratio of 2.73, vs. a recent average of 2.35; indirect bidders take 33.8%, vs. a recent 25.7%. Direct bidders take 15.4%, vs. a recent 14.7%.  [View news story]
    I like both comments. Lol
    May 10 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain Is Taking The Irish Route [View article]
    cameron & austerity,
    the after-effects of an even less regulated financial sector than that of the US.
    private sector leveraged up to twice the level of GDP
    May 10 03:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed And Credit Bubbles [View article]
    have you ever attempted to talk to or with anyone? i've only seen you talk AT other commentators. what a sorry waste of (your own) time.
    May 10 01:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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