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brachiosaurus

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  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    of course, you feast on a budget gap that represents less than 1% of California GDP.

    these so called boondoggles include the best university system in the world, and attempts at creating world-class infrastructure.

    There's a reason that the most innovative companies in the country are headquartered in California, and not Georgia. Note also that CA has a 25% higher GDP per capita than Georgia.
    May 13, 2012. 06:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Isn't Responsible For Runaway Inequality [View article]
    the amount of patience that shareholders unite must have to talk to these nitwits is impressive.
    May 2, 2012. 12:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberal Versus Conservative: A Tale Of Two Economies [View article]
    reading comprehension plz
    Mar 25, 2013. 07:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    I've read the article and I'm familiar with the migration myth that you are pushing. The myth incorrectly associates causation with correlation. In fact, a major reason for this net wealth migration/people migration is because high wealth/high density regions naturally tend to have a net diffusion of people to poorer/lower density. It takes strong economic forces to counteract this diffusion (e.g., the industrialisation of the western countries in the 19th/early 20th century, and currently happening in China). It seems you are a smart fellow, so I think you'll appreciate that there is an analogy of this diffusion with the 2nd law of thermodynamics.

    The particular case of Santa Clara County is a good example because this county has been the scene of one of the greatest bouts of wealth creation. There is net migration of wealthy out of Santa Clara County, but this is almost a mathematical certainty when the amount of wealth created there greatly exceeded most of the rest of the country. Now I don't deny that FL or TX are creating a lot of wealth right now compared to other places, but really the effect you are seeing is that generally poorer states are in the gradual process of catching up with the richest states. It is no coincidence that the 5 states with highest net flows are the richest per capita (if discussing wealth flow), and highest population density (if discussing population flow).

    Here is an article, written by sociologists who properly control for non-salient and salient factors. Honestly compare the quality of the academic article to the study by an industry lobbying group.
    http://goo.gl/eRIj8

    Did you really move to Florida because of you didn't like your income tax rate?
    May 13, 2012. 08:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain's provisional GDP data comes in at -0.3% Q/Q and -0.4% Y/Y, better (surprisingly) than the expected -0.4% Q/Q and -0.6% Y/Y.  [View news story]
    except Spain had a budget surplus before the financial crisis. Spain is in this situation because of a mountain of private debt and lack of appropriate financial sector regulations, which allowed bad private debts to amass. That plus the fact that they can't control their own currency and interest rates, because they are part of a monetary union.
    By the way, Ireland is in equally bad shape, even though they had low taxes, a lack of regulations, and a budget surplus before the financial crisis.
    What do they have in common? A mountain of private debt and lack of financial sector regulations, and being unable to control their currency.
    Apr 30, 2012. 05:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austerity + Gold Standard = Greece [View article]
    hilarious joesix
    Mar 16, 2012. 01:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Liquidity Trap Cause The Hike In Gold? [View article]
    why the focus on the US? The major consumer of gold is China and India. They both suffer from out of control inflation, which is why they have such demand for it.

    China is the country with the most severely negative real interest rates, and that is why we have rising gold prices. When China appeared to be tightening monetarily, gold fell. Now that China is pressing the gas pedal again monetarily, gold rises. Very simple.

    People worried about hyperinflation in the US are misinformed. And clearly have been wrong over the past 5 years.
    Feb 5, 2012. 08:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ahead of the Fed maybe about to announce yet more intervention into the markets, don't miss this piece on the "MIT mafia" running monetary policy around the globe. Bonds forged in those classrooms continue to expansive dinners at Basel, where many of the policies to fight the financial crisis were debated and created. [View news story]
    It is amusing to watch right-wingers spew out their intellectual insecurities.
    Dec 12, 2012. 12:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuation Is Not The Reason To Short Amazon.com [View article]
    I enjoy buying products from non-profit companies like Amazon. Thank you shareholders for subsidizing my kindle and e-books. I like knowing that each one of my purchases helps benefit a non-profit like Amazon, rather than a for-profit corporation like Walmart.
    Dec 4, 2012. 05:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford (F) is upgraded by Moody's one notch to Baa3 with stable outlook. Combining the move with Fitch's upgrade last month makes the automaker an investment-grade credit again.  [View news story]
    It should have been upgraded long ago.
    May 23, 2012. 12:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    well done getting out during a market peak!
    I am refreshed as well, arguing with someone who is smart, but more importantly attempts to be intellectually honest.

    I think my analogy is good, although admittedly I'm no sociologist. A particularly cool piece of evidence for the analogy is looking at the net flows of wealthy people between poorer states with high taxes (not many by the way), and richer states with low taxes (also, not many of these). One stark example is the net flow between Hawaii (poor) and Alaska (rich), for which the lobby-group funded "studies" would prepare you to believe there would be an overwhelming flow from Hawaii (high tax) to Alaska (low tax). In fact there is a slight flow in the opposite direction.

    The "study" should be ringing alarm bells to you because it is obvious that they haven't controlled for ongoing changes in the level of urbanization, or ongoing changes in productivity, or even obvious situations like resource booms. TX and other inflow states are only now (slowly) catching up in levels of urbanization, and levels of productivity, that are seen in the outflow states (and they are still pretty far behind, so the trends will continue barring some major economic forces). It has nothing to do with taxation, except for the fact that the states that have more ground to cover are generally those that tend to be red state. Additionally, in some particular low density, resource rich, red states, like Alaska, TX, OK, ND, the relative level of job creation is further boosted by natural resources.

    by the way, in Florida I think there is currently a net domestic outflow right now.
    May 13, 2012. 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California faces a deficit of $16B, Governor Jerry Brown said yesterday (video), not the $9B he'd estimated in January. The ballooning gap is due to tepid tax revenues and slow progress in slashing budgets, which Brown blamed on the federal government and the courts. One bit of hope is Facebook's IPO, which could bring in $2B. (see also)  [View news story]
    This wouldn't be an issue, if only California received a tax rebate from the Federal government for the fact that it receives less than 80c for every $1 it sends to the Federal government.

    http://bit.ly/vi8oS6

    Or better yet, why don't states like Alaska, Alabama, or Oklahoma just send a check for the proportion of funds that they leach from California. That'll help. Then CA can get to the business of cracking down on the corporations and millionaires that evade taxes via Prop 13.
    May 13, 2012. 06:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls have been unable to get much done, and almost all major indices have now broken through key uptrend lines from Oct. 2011 lows. While it's still early to peg this as a major trend change, prices are likely to meander lower in the short term.  [View news story]
    technical analysis (aside from low frequency momentum) has little place in the investment discussion because it is all a silly fraud. there's a reason that nobody consistently makes money from it, and nobody is rich from it (aside from book writers). the chart industry was created and continues to be pushed by brokers, because it is a fantastic revenue source.
    May 12, 2012. 09:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed And Credit Bubbles [View article]
    have you ever attempted to talk to or with anyone? i've only seen you talk AT other commentators. what a sorry waste of (your own) time.
    May 10, 2012. 01:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain Is Taking The Irish Route [View article]
    With or without a bank bailout, Spain will default because it is strapped to a currency which won't depreciate like it needs to. The ecb is perfectly unwilling to do anything to help the suffering nations. meanwhile the Spanish private sector has accumulated such a level of debt that it could never pay off, thanks to a lack of financial oversight. All this has been exacerbated by an idiotic focus on austerity and internal devaluation, as if nothing was learned from the great depression.
    The bank bailout itself is hopeless because Spanish government has such a high cost of financing.
    May 9, 2012. 02:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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