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berylrb

berylrb
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  • Tesla's Gigafactory May Turn More Doubters Into Believers [View article]
    Wow fxfx, that's twice now that you've cited articles and been called out for misrepresentation, hmmm ...
    Mar 10 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory May Turn More Doubters Into Believers [View article]
    Plus why would you replace a battery that still has a range of 171-211 miles (70%)? That's still better than the next best range EV, Toyota RAV4 at 107 miles.

    Oh, BTW, the RAV4 has a tesla drivetrain!
    Mar 10 11:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Building A Hedged Portfolio Around A SolarCity Position [View article]
    right, on what is the buy out? is there any residual?
    Mar 9 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla now +3.2% AH. Gigafactory aims to supply 500K vehicles. [View news story]
    Oh yeah, Tesla is actually financing with bonds from ...
    Mar 4 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla now +3.2% AH. Gigafactory aims to supply 500K vehicles. [View news story]
    Oh that's easy fgrindle,
    1) the other Manufacturers don't make battery packs with 265 mile range, and
    2) BMW's 2014 models are hybrids not EV's.
    3) Also, Tesla's closest competition, range-wise not vehicle to vehicle, all have Tesla Battery packs.
    Therefore, the other manufacturers don't need to worry about battery availability and costs because they don't have the range and those that come in a distant second use Tesla battery packs.

    Last I checked the closest thing to Tesla's range is the ... ready for this ... Tesla battery pack equipped Toyota RAV4! Go figure.

    I assume that the Mercedes B-Class will have similar range to the RAV4, after all, it also has a Tesla battery pack.

    Here's 3rd and 4th place: "The Spark EV's 82-mile range matches that of the 2013 Honda Fit EV, but isn't as high as that of the 2013 Fiat 500e (87 miles) or the 2013 Toyota RAV4 EV (103 miles)."
    http://bit.ly/1fDzVL4
    Mar 3 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla now +3.2% AH. Gigafactory aims to supply 500K vehicles. [View news story]
    As a corollary, If the current deposit structure ensues, then sometime in 2015 Tesla will have a new revenue stream from Gen III deposits to bear on those new factories, eh?

    I am one of those Prius owners eagerly awaiting to put a deposit down on Gen III, I will have 300,000 miles on my Prius in 2016, FYI a new Prius plug-in with the Advanced package will run about $35-40K.
    Mar 3 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla now +3.2% AH. Gigafactory aims to supply 500K vehicles. [View news story]
    @John, you're right in line with this article (link below), although I can't recall exactly where/when Musk actually said new factories will come on line across the US and Europe, China too right? As I recall there's an assembly plant or two currently in Europe right?
    http://bit.ly/MKblkW
    I honestly haven't thought much past 2020 and NUMMI's capacity of 500K.

    Hmmm, you wrote, "I would expect building of the second tier to start when Tesla is running between 150,000 and 200,000 cars per year." Let's see, using 55% increase in sales YOY,
    2013 22,300
    2014 35,000
    2015 54,250
    2016 84,100
    2017 130,350
    2018 202,100
    2019 313,150
    2020 485,400

    So basically new manufacturing plants need to be in construction or being negotiated by 2018, eh? Which coincidentally is the first year of production for the gigafactory!
    http://bit.ly/1gCWEcD

    So even if the 55% increase tapers off for Model S and X in 2017, with the GenIII coming online end of 2017 or 2018 any peaking of S & X should be more than compensated for by GenIII sales. Shoot, I just might add to my position at the next dip!

    EDIT - Tesla says GenIII will start 2016-2017! I do believe you've nailed a sweet entry point, catalyst, and or event John! Of course the bear argument will turn to margin pressures in 2016 given the pending ramp up for GenIII, eh?
    Mar 3 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Recent Financing May Bite Back [View article]
    That's why it is important to keep in mind that the 500K is an estimate of the mix of Model S, X and GenIII.
    Mar 3 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Recent Financing May Bite Back [View article]
    2013 = 600/week (Model S only)
    2014 = 1000/week
    2015-19 = who knows?
    2020 = 9600/week (500,000 by 2020) for all models S, X and E(GenIII)

    Technically MB is right w/r to ASP there will be two buckets,
    high ASP (Model S & X) = $100K+
    low ASP (Gen III) = $35-65K

    I personally think the "low ASP" will be lower than $65K, simply because I doubt most mass produced cars are sold with all the options? But therein lies the question.

    MB's presentation of the 2020 mix as only Model S & X seems to have invited criticism. Nonetheless, the "high ASP" of 300,000 cars delivered is suspect, that would be 5,800 Model S & X cars per week or roughly 23,200 per quarter! A 200% increase over Q4 2013!

    This study suggests that the luxury proportion of the US has stayed at basically 10% although some are experiencing growth (Merecedes).
    http://bit.ly/NOegtx
    The author goes on to say that the data suggests some are foregoing purchasing "luxury" vehicles for smaller ones, which makes sense with recent news about who drives a Prius. Further, it does appear that crossover vehicles like the soon to be produced Model X are experiencing double digit growth. Outside of the US? Other articles suggests that China is in a luxury car boom, some makers like Mercedes experiencing a 30% YOY increase.

    So is it possible for Tesla to sell 300K vehicles by 2020 for an ASP of $100k, worldwide? Or, will the Gen III numbers be higher, hence, net income lower?
    Mar 3 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Is Tesla Going To $1000? [View article]
    @fan, you wrote, to duc, "I don't know if it's how you really are, or just your writing style, but you've been extremely rude to Sidd lately." ... and, "The fact that you'd accuse anyone of not informing you about their position shows how self-centered you are."

    I too have noted these previously, and oft repeated, I try my best to ignore the 'duc'. I am surprised that none have pushed the report button, ... <@editors, for instance, "That's called "reverse psychology". It worked. On you." What!? What immediately comes to mind are schoolyard antics and bullies. Not exactly improving the quality of discussion, eh?>

    But I digress, sophomoric, pretentious and often juvenile also come to mind too!
    Mar 2 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: When Do The Shorts Give Up? [View article]
    At VH, it seems to me that 8% is quite a bit less then 13%, so I don't see why you need to question your model? Am I missing something?
    Feb 28 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Is Tesla Going To $1000? [View article]
    Wow, you didn't even get to the second sentence of the article!

    500k is a mix of Model S, X and Gen III
    Feb 27 02:58 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory May Turn More Doubters Into Believers [View article]
    Let's put the 500,000 in perspective.

    You know 500,000 is just a mere fraction of the 250 million registered cars in United States alone, and according to the Association of realtors there were 130 million single-family homes in 2010.

    So even though tftf makes a good point about the need for charging facilities in a garage home, this 500,000 is foreseeable just with those who have garages.
    Feb 27 11:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory May Turn More Doubters Into Believers [View article]
    @bouchart, how did you expect them to win Consumer Reports best car of the year there first time out not just once but twice consecutively?!
    Feb 27 10:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory May Turn More Doubters Into Believers [View article]
    I don't know about that I have friends in Milpitas, Fremont, Union City, etc., very happy to work at Tesla ... And one week off every quarter (I believe that's been reported?) is not too shabby!
    Feb 27 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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