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  • Insiders Are Selling Apple [View article]
    Please short apple and apple call options and tell me when. I will buy everything you are selling.
    Nov 9, 2013. 12:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Is Apple's Worst Nightmare [View article]
    Also, AAPL market cap; 460 billion. Samsung market cap; 200 billion. I wonder why this might be? Probably because Samsung has a profit margin of 40% i am sure.
    Nov 7, 2013. 05:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The $64 Billion Question [View article]
    "A nicely equipped Prius plug-in sells for $41,008. Since Toyota makes a profit selling it at that price, it must cost less to produce." That is the boldest and probably most untrue statement in this entire article. Have you heard of the BoJ? The Yen? The devaluation and the record profits Toyota is seeing because of it? You think they make money selling cars? Really?
    Sep 12, 2013. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yelp: You'll Be Sorry You Missed It [View article]
    I think you are missing one thing here and that is a conservative analysis of sales growth, advertising revenue growth etc. If you use a more accurate growth forecasting model of blending EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and EV/FCF you will come to a more accurate figure of about $35 a share in a highly positive market. Which although I agree with you and your sentiment about YELPs approach to organic disruptive "local" advertising and how it can be and probably has been a significant factor for investors recent perception of future growth potential but in reality, the only reason this stock has traded north of $35 a share is because there are a number of investors out there that believe it is a primary take-over target considering Googles acquisition of Zagat. I would be very careful trading this stock at these prices. If you are looking to get into this area of the market for your portfolio, I would recommend simply waiting to see if any FED based or Euro based volatility hits the markets in the next 3 months before sending any buy orders. If the stock dips below $30 again, BUY. If not, I think the authors perception of +30% growth by year end is only attainable if the company is offered a substantial premium to previous closing price. (Not that it matters, but I have done significant research into who the potentially bidders for YELP could be, only 2 of them have the cash, meaning they would even consider buying YELP at these absurd multiples and although I am holding option contracts that are long YELP @ $32 expiring in JAN '15, I do not believe we will see higher prices unless the takeover talk comes true)
    Jul 14, 2013. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Take Profits Now [View article]
    Only two points, you mention that there hasnt really been a sell off without specifying whether or not you were talking about the market as a whole or just banking/financial sector. I ask because there was a selloff, it was called May and June. Maybe it wasnt as severe as people/pundits were suggesting (10% or more) but we did get a correction off the highs. That being said, BAC like many other US based MBS banks (meaning they own or have financed a great number of MBS and are securitizing them as well) including WFC and JPM, are in a tight situation where central banks in their domestic markets and foreign central banks where they also participate in origination of MBS, are artificially depressing interest rates to benefit economic recovery (essentially benefiting those seeking mortgages). Banks have thus been unable to achieve prior historical earnings off these MBS and other related derivative securities they either originate or invest in/hedge with and thus have been at a standstill as to how to improve both top and bottom line. Many, in fact most have been using the cost cutting method of improvement to the balance sheet but that can only go so far. With the recent increase in avg MBS prices in the US in addition to the more appropriately priced 10yr+ treasuries, we are going to see Banks beginning to see profits from market exposure. In addition, without Basel 3 or Dodd Frank in place (meaning there hasnt been a final decision regarding total tiers of cash required by systemically important financial and non financial companies in the US, there could be a massive move by some of the larger banks to readjust post establishment of these regulations. I believe BAC, WFC, JPM, GS, MS, C, StateStreet, and a few others have been constantly liquidating investments and storing as much cash as possible so that they are compliant regardless of which regulatory body they deal with. If they have too much cash then they will obviously need to hunt returns off that cash better than what they can get in so called "risk free" assets. Thats my thesis. I could be right or wrong but my gut tells me I am right.


    FYI, I am long BAC & WFC & C. I think technically speaking they could be ripe for a nice bump up. I think earnings for all three above will be beats however any bumps up will be an opportunity to sell with a significant profit. That being said, I do not see tremendous downside to holding considering the US economic environment however C is first on my list to be sold, if there is a bump up, due to its overseas exposure.
    Jul 10, 2013. 01:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: It's Panic Time [View article]
    You are right. Investment banks and brokers are always leading the marketing in terms of analysis and forward earnings hypothesis. Never lagging. Wow am I glad you are not an actual investment advisor. Or maybe I am because you performance stats would be equivalent to the people you blindly entrust in order to build your "unique" investment thesis, lagging. Good Job!
    Jul 1, 2013. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Frequency Trading: Harmful Or Helpful? [View article]
    I can see you got your Ph'D in information theory and computer sciences from Harvard and Stanford respectively. Thank you for one more knowledgeable and informative 1st hand discovery article into the world of HFT from another CFA/ Financial Professional that has A) No experience in B) No knowledge of and C) Repeating like a parrot what others are saying about HFT. Bravo!
    May 22, 2013. 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon's (VZ +3.4%) 4M iPhone activations represented a 25% Y/Y increase, and 56% of total smartphone activations. For the second quarter in a row, the iPhone 5 made up about half of activations. But in spite of Verizon's numbers and a bullish JPMorgan note, Apple (AAPL -1.7%) has fallen below $400. With a major divergence having opened up between the iPhone's U.S. and international performance, the Street may have begun discounting the implications of Verizon/AT&T/Sprint sales for global results. [View news story]
    Fan boyz or not, one has to consider that there has not been an ounce of good news from anyone reporting on apple since the whole MAPS screw up. That being said, one also has to imagine that there would have been some good news in between the screw up and now, but alas, there has not. Oversold is the key word here. A 30% drop in share value is typically something we see when a company is turning the lights off or John Corzine is running your company. If you want to take sides, I would take the side of Apple releasing the next best gadgets for the next 10 years. Anyone want to do some historical or forward looking analysis on that prediction?
    Apr 18, 2013. 12:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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