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rrurban

rrurban
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  • Qualcomm: Accelerate The Buyback Program [View article]
    Qualcomm is one of the only no-brainers in the market now. Long at $60.44 (2013). Anything under $65 is a great investment over the next 5-10 yrs.
    Nov 13, 2014. 01:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uncertainty Prevails For Coach [View article]
    When you have a business with declining revenues (and margins), you better figure out the cause of it. It's time to conserve cash, cut expenses and figure out the problem. It's not time to push growth initiatives as you ignore the core problem. This shows poor management. Management's key initiatives in no way address the core issue (a brand in decline). Sooner or later they'll be forced to address this. I see no evidence of a turnaround at this point and believing so is only hopeful and likely to lose you a lot of money. The way to value COH at this point is to determine what the likely level is where revenues and margins can actually stabilize (on a store by store basis). From that lower level you wouldn't pay a high multiple b/c this is not a growth story. In addition you'd want a large margin of safety. COH won't be interesting until it's in the mid to low teens.
    Nov 12, 2014. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AVG: Stale Short Thesis = Great Opportunity! [View article]
    AVG is worth $25/sh and will be there within 6 months on an LBO I suspect. check the news...
    Nov 6, 2014. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lakeland Industries: Solid Fundamentals Or Peak Euphoria? [View article]
    which broker did you borrow the shares from? hard to find shares
    Oct 19, 2014. 01:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Short Lakeland Industries [View article]
    Where did you get your shares to short? I came up with this idea on my own last week and was very happy to find your article on SA. LAKE is worth "maybe" $7/sh. Even if they win the 160k gov't contract they might be worth $10/sh, not $25. This is a no-brainer. TDAmeritrade and Merrill neither have shares to short. Where did you find shares to borrow? Thanks
    Oct 14, 2014. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lakeland Industries May Be The Next Big Winner In The War Against Ebola [View article]
    you're exactly right. stock is still worth $5. it could run to $50 in the meantime, so always short on the way down, not on the way up
    Oct 9, 2014. 08:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lakeland Industries May Be The Next Big Winner In The War Against Ebola [View article]
    Good "speculative" call. At $20 and nearly a 200% gain in a week, this rally is not sustainable, nor based on any potential fundamental scenario unfolding. LAKE is worth ~ $5/sh based on FCF and net assets. Great short entry point coming soon.
    Oct 9, 2014. 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Spinning Off Printers/PCs [View article]
    I couldn't agree with you more. I've owned HPQ for exactly 3 years. It's been a tough ride. I think HPQ is worth at least $50/sh. $70/sh with a spin-off. EMC is slightly undervalued but growing FCF at a healthy pace. HPQ/EMC is a fantastic company when put together. Then, the PC/Printing business is in slow decline but generates tons of FCF. Under 6x EV/EBITDA for this quality of a franchise is ridiculous. I think HPQ is a $100 stock within 3-5 years, based on business performance and fair valuation, and not on stock price speculation.
    Oct 6, 2014. 01:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Geospace Technologies Undervalued? [View article]
    Any ideas on why GEOS is down nearly 15% in 2 days? No news, looked everywhere. Strong fundamentals - no debt, great cash flow. Trading at very low EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF levels. FCF yield is 20% on Enterprise Value. Low capex also. I've been watching this stock since the $50, wanting it under $30. I just want to know if their business model is getting eroded by competitors or low oil prices are causing problems with the company's revenues.
    Oct 2, 2014. 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach: Why I'm Holding [View article]
    I appreciate your article and analysis.
    You mentioned that "The company expanded too fast, manifesting in unprofitable locations and excess inventory". What really happened was management was incompetent and/or incapable of managing the growth. The growth didn't just happen on its own. It's easy to blame "the growth" as the bad guy but it's the management that made many errors - they're to blame. If I owned the whole company I highly doubt I would still have the current mgmt in place.
    Also, predicting future P/E ratios is a dangerous practice - beware. If you bought a local business you would merely be looking at what your "owner earnings" is likely to be and whether that can grow. You'd want to know if you're assuming any debt or cash, and if you're getting a fair price to earn a decent income. You'd care what the competitive advantages are for the business and whether they are likely to last. You wouldn't be forecasting exit multiples and you wouldn't be projecting earnings years into the future.
    Sep 26, 2014. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach Is Still In A Lot Of Trouble [View article]
    I agree, DCF is the proper way to value a business, if you have perfect data. The problem is it relies on future data, thus it's imperfect (by a mile for most companies). Forecasting FCF for Coach is very difficult, but you might be able to come up with a floor for FCF. I visited COH and KORS stores w/i the past week. COH was much busier than KORS. I believe mgmt has made it clear that improvement in SSS is the immediate goal, even at the cost of margins, and that is clearly what they are doing now. KORS is going to "join the club" and see pressure on top-line growth. For COH, the turnaround will require better designs, stabilization of revenues and severe cost-cutting w/i the organization. I agree that the mid $20s is the point to own the company and am patiently waiting.
    Sep 10, 2014. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Rarity: Great Company At Very Good Price [View article]
    Good points you make. But I wouldn't buy it at 20x EBIT. 3B EBIT/ 60B EV = 5% owner yield. Too expensive even with 15% growth going forward. The key is to get a 10%+ yield, know the business and see that 15% forward growth is probable.
    Jul 28, 2014. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach: Trading Range Could Fall To $21 - $25 After Earnings Report [View article]
    At $21 per share you're getting a low risk investment with great upside. Looking at EPS is a waste of time. Look at EBIT, FCF and EV.
    Jul 28, 2014. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Wells Fargo Earnings [View article]
    I'd like to see it go back to $40 and just sit there for a year or two. I'll add to my position and continue reinvesting dividends. WFC represents 5% of my net worth and i've owned since Nov 2012. I wish I owned more.
    Jul 11, 2014. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach: An 'Accidental High Yielder' [View article]
    I believe the future is somewhere between 0% to 5% FCF growth, and definitely lower growth than the past 13% FCF growth. Based on lower growth, COH is conservatively worth $28-35 per share. Buying at $35 and you are effectively voting that they'll grow FCF at 10% a year. This may happen but the odds are stacked against you. Only play win the risk/reward is in your favor.

    At $29 (roughly 20% lower than now), you get an EBIT/EV yield of 20% and a dividend yield of 4%. Under $25 is probably a no-brainer investment.
    Jul 4, 2014. 01:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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