BxCapricorn

48 Comments

    • Fannie, Freddie Bailout To Wipe Out Equity Holders? [view article]
      I predict the government will take control on Sept. 6th, and the shorts will be correct. Sep 06 07:32 PM
    • Bill Ackman's Letter to Paulson On Restructuring Plan [view article]
      Correction, Ackman's buying of Borders (BGP), not Barnes and Noble (like there's a difference...)

      www.secform4.com/insid...

      Got that trade was hilarious. Still is!!!       Sep 06 06:45 PM
    • Bill Ackman's Letter to Paulson On Restructuring Plan [view article]
      Ackman is, as usual, awesome (except for his Barnes and Noble position). Although not a member of the PPT, he graciously gives his advice to a Secretary of the Treasury who not only encouraged his Wall Street brethren to "push the envelope" with their structured finance voo-doo, by trumpeting that the PPT was in full swing Oct. 2006 (got your back guys), but later admonished the ibanks for doing the obvious and overworking a good thing. Ackman not only becomes a billionaire by seeing through the charade (as did Soros, Jon Paulson, and others) but has the stones to put out letters like this. Sorry, David Einhorn, I'm jumping Ackman ahead of you for now, as the guy I enjoy watching the most on Wall Street. Sep 06 05:35 PM
    • Rescuing Frannie [view article]
      I've read everything coming out of the mainstream press on this common stockholder dies, preferred stockholder lives take-over.

      Marketwatch believes it is good for the market but did not say anything about the common, preferred stockholders or bondholders...
      www.marketwatch.com/m/...

      CNBC put out that common stockholders are going to see zero...
      www.cnbc.com//id/26576...|headline|quote|text|&...

      Cramer is hard to decipher, as is Jeff Macke and Guy Adami. After hours action had both stocks down 20%, and the message boards are filling up with the same kind of fare I read when Bear Stearns went down the tubes (suicide threats, woe, ridicule, political banter, gold buggery, etc.) I was hoping someone knowledgeable would spell all of this out. As Tom Petty once said, "the waiting is the hardest part (umph)"....

       Sep 06 05:24 PM
    • Rescuing Frannie [view article]
      www.nypost.com/seven/1...

      It's been a fascinating two years. Can wait for the book that give me the missing details. Of course, bookstores will have to re-shelve Greenspan's book to the fiction section, but no one will be looking for it anyway.       Sep 06 03:19 PM
    • The $64 Trillion Question: What's the Dollar Really Worth? [view article]
      How The Plunge Protection Team Fights Back (Been Documenting Their Actions or What I Believe Are Their Actions...They're Brilliant, No Kidding....) Next Predicted Step: The Fed cuts rates.

      What? How? Let's go back to October 2006, when Paulson reassembled the PPT. Paulson repeatedly visits China, to lay out the plan. China stops their factories (in 2008, they did this from mid-July to mid-September, "for the Olympics") commodity prices come down, US "demand destruction" helps to further collapse commodity prices, US government freezes the ability of traders to "short" certain key financial companies, the SEC changes rules regarding commodity trading (due 9/15/08), as well as specifically targeting oil speculators. The CBOT coordinates with large financial institutions to short silver and gold, while the Bank of International Settlements and other central banks, flood the market, by selling off their gold reserves (they'll buy them back later once the market collapses). The US government then shows support for highly leveraged (50-1 capital ratio) "hybrids" like Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) to prevent a collapse of the real estate/banking markets. Since foreign countries own large amounts of these stocks, they cooperate by helping strengthen the dollar. They are also further held hostage to the strong dollar because their economies are in recession without a buyer of their exports. Commodity deflation and the strong dollar now allows continued Fed rate cuts without inspiring "wage spiral" inflation seen in the 1970's (helps not to have those pesky, strong unions around anymore). Commodity hedge funds implode, further helping to push commodity futures downward (steel, copper, oil, silver, gold, etc.)       Sep 06 02:43 PM
    • The $64 Trillion Question: What's the Dollar Really Worth? [view article]
      One more thing. You might mention the Bank for International Settlements and how important their actions are with regards to currencies and commodities.

      www.bis.org/dcms/fl.js...
       Sep 06 01:08 PM
    • The $64 Trillion Question: What's the Dollar Really Worth? [view article]
      You may also add that China wanted a stronger dollar, and a weaker yuan, while limiting inflation. When that impossibility did not occur...

      www.chinadaily.com.cn/...

      What could they do? Close factories for two months after stockpiling commodities, deflate commodity prices through a demand destruction coupled with the U.S., buy U.S. dollars like all of the world's central banks (with their stronger currency), meet with Paulson concerning holdings in treasuries and FNM/FRE, ensuring both are backed by the U.S. government, and ensure that their GDP rises at least 8% while preventing their own version of a wage inflation spiral. This global economy idea has a lot of moving parts, many of them counteracting. Good piece and thanks for mentioning the Central Bank USD buy-up.
       Sep 06 01:00 PM
    • Why Commodities May Be Nearing a Turning Point [view article]
      I just feel sorry for Jim Rogers, George Soros and Ken Heebner. Those poor misguided fools. Why didn't they just follow Bill Miller's lead? Sep 06 12:43 PM
    • Worst Downgrades - Cramer's Stop Trading! (9/5/08) [view article]
      How anyone can doubt that Cramer is in the back pocket of financials like Lehman, after cheering them on, day after day, is beyond me. Ospraie, 20% owned by Lehman I've read, sells off on redemptions and there's Cramer, ignoring that fact, but saying their something fundamentally wrong with a company like RIG. Are they making too much in contracted day rates, signed years in advance? Is the forward P/E too ridiculously LOW? The Chinese idle 2M factory workers and 230 plus factories from July 17th until the completion of the paralympics (Sept. 16th), and the industrial world ends with people like Cramer trying to throw commodities under the bus, to slow it's path directly at his financials. I love the 300 days until a housing bottom even more than last year's prediction that the DJIA would hit 14,548. That's priceless. It's twice that. Sep 06 12:33 PM
    • Hedge Fund Blow-Up Letters: Where Are the Apologies? [view article]
      Great piece. I don't agree with the sentiment that they owe you an apology as an investor. If you're too busy or novice to invest your own money, why bother investing? Do you really believe that every hedge manager is someone that can cover their own overhead, and provide you with guaranteed returns in a bear market? You pick a manager that executes an investment strategy similar to your own and let the dice roll. Sep 03 12:40 PM
    • Market Gets Nervous About LCD Panels [view article]
      Um, I've read 345 message boards today, and they all swear that their stock is down because of [enter any reason, no matter how ridiculous]. The average myopic investor and poster, is convinced that some item they have been thinking about, has appeared to be greater in significance than they thought (ex. your article). You'd have to hang around Charles Barkley in Las Vegas to understand that normal table games are being distorted by desperate big money bets. I normally like your posts, here and on Barron's, but a word of advice. Clear your short term memory through the clever application of Merlot. Sep 02 07:53 PM
    • Nevada: More Than Just Gambling? [view article]
      We're also going to sport our fair share of bank defaults. Fortunately most of the "investors" that came over from California with their "winnings" from the gameshow that was California real estate, 2002-2006, also originated many of their carefully constructed loans in their home state. Unfortunately for Nevadans, those that speculated with our housing market (and certainly they were not all from California) entered and left the state like Visigoths (think Rome). Now we sit with thousands upon thousands of empty homes, largely uninhabitable, because plumbing, wiring, cabinetry, fixtures and carpets have been pulled out and taken. You really have to see these properties to believe it. Aug 28 09:15 AM
    • Ten Shining Arizona Stocks [view article]
      Um, are there editors at Seeking Alpha? I've got this story I wrote about a cow that got all tangled up in a barbed wire fence in Putnam County, NY. Seems it got scared from a recent lightning strike, and ol' Mr. Gantry didn't notice it was missing from the herd until afternoon milking time. I'll save the "twist" for when I get the full story gets published by this "folksy website". Aug 24 07:39 PM
    • Ship Finance International: Cruising on Profits [view article]
      Let me add that they are actually at the top of my stock model range, and I will buy them under $23.50, and sell them at $28. I agree that buy-and-hold investors can't miss with their dividend, but people don't care about dividends like they used to (i.e. AYR, GLS, FRO). I attribute this to day-trading, options, and other riverboat gambling personalities now involved with stocks. Aug 24 05:19 PM
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