BxCapricorn

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132 Comments

    • Wed Oct 22nd 20:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pay Attention to Indian Silver Buying Spree
      Much of the silver is mined by companies focused on base metals, with their silver being a byproduct. As base metal prices drop, those mining them scale down operations and silver supplies drop. Thankfully, as you mentioned, there more than enough "paper silver" on Comex to fill in the supply side of the equation. Isn't it a wonderful world we live in where a highly leveraged buyer/seller of commodity futures, can cripple whole economies, create worldwide panics, force governmental policies, bubble and collapse not only the commodity (i.e. oil) itself but alternatives to the commodity (i.e. solar, wind), literally dictating world events in the process? You needn't get elected, pass legislation, or any of that messy democratic "stuff". You can hide behind "free market capitalism" and let the public misguided optimism in the system, protect you from the light of day, as you work your "leveraged" magic.
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    • Sat Oct 18th 22:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?
      I am floored by the number of errors in this article, but not the least bit surprised. To all those that think the world is going to end, I recall an interview in the early 1980's, in which members of The Clash were asked if the world was going to end, and they responded, "of course not, there's not money in it!" Over twenty years later, and it still hasn't. Let the bluffing and poker game continue.....
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    • Sat Oct 18th 18:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Can Oil Prices Stay Healthy?
      How can oil stay at $80/barrel? Demand is decreasing, so guess what supply is about to do. It's almost as if a cartel and various oil suppliers have an interest in maintaining higher oil prices.
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    • Sat Oct 18th 16:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Charts of the Day: Gold, and Baltic Dry Index
      Forced selling of gold and silver were seen on Friday last week, when margin clerks arrived at 2pm EST, like they always do. That answers the question about the effects of forced selling. Now, will the Gold or Silver ETF's sell-off? You're not going to believe this, but if you drop the price, more people buy these ETF's because they are cheaper. Isn't that crazy? It's almost as if a large segment of the population, whom most people have labeled "whackos", have somehow, some way, gotten their hands on money and figured out how to obtain precious metals with it. Even with major banks manipulating the silver market (as detailed in this piece, also on Seeking Alpha)

      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      and driving it down with short selling positions, it continues to bounce back, despite the enormity of this short. Silver mines keep expanding and more are being developed. Is everyone crazy? How can they keep getting financing for these projects? Don't banks know they have the only real money? A finite supply of fiat currency, based on faith?
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    • Sat Oct 18th 16:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Silver Could Explode, Says Analyst
      Precious metals have gotten so much attention lately, everywhere, that I believe we are experiencing a "tipping" point in the making. As for silver, this shortage may seem unimportant to those that do not invest in the metal, but when werewolves start roaming the streets, it'll really hit home.
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    • Fri Oct 17th 00:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      This Recession Will Be Anything but Deep
      Finally a sane discussion. You remember Y2K? Planes were going to fall out of the sky, the electrical grid was going to shut down, gravity would reverse, and anarchy would ensue. All because computers couldn't handle an extra byte or two. Teams were formed, code was written, arguments were held over whether 2K was the year 2000 or 2001. People bought generators, bought guns and ammo, loaded up on freeze dried food, hoarded cash because ATM's would not work, and vendors of this stuff, loved it. The media LOVED it too. They saw the potential and milked it for all it was worth. Magazines wrote articles on every angle, radio shows talk-talk-talked up the panic, and TV scared everyone with teasers so they'd get "the inside story". The big day came, and if memory serves me correctly, one water treatment plant in Wisconsin had an issue.

      Now everyone is freaking out about the market (and they should this time because they have retirements and pensions at stake), but the alarmists are siting hedge fund sell-offs, related to margin calls resulting from Lehman swaps, as if this is the end of capitalism. We are deleveraging. We are deflated. We'll flood the world with capital and get back to inflated so that debts can be settled. Let's hope everyone learned a lesson for twenty years, invests more conservatively, understands their financial limits, and repeat the whole thing over again in 2025.
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    • Thu Oct 16th 23:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Coming Soon: The $600 Trillion Derivatives Emergency Meeting
      I don't think anyone here made a single coherent point. Sorry. I keep trying to figure out who wins and who loses in these CDS situations, and from what I've seen post-Lehman, those most leveraged who got their margins called, had to liquidate. Over the past few weeks (maybe months), those with ties to the "bets" held, sold off into an unforgiving market. One day triple digit down, the next triple digit up. Sell, recover, sell, recover. Any unforeseen bad news about the economy, turbo-charges the sell-off for that day. The VIX reflects the potential range of the day.

      Just like a casino, some will win and some will lose and you're trying to convince us that we will all lose. Economies will de-leverage, that we've seen, but as everything becomes worth less, they also cost less. Sure, this will continue to tear apart people's retirement savings, IF you are expecting anything less than capital preservation in your elections.
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    • Wed Oct 15th 04:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Farewell Financial Bear Raids - Cramer's Mad Money (10/14/08)
      Just got a call from the used car salesmen, Debtacid. They asked that you take the comparison back, and that their feelings are hurt. They said they might occasionally sell a car that is substandard, but they don't do it all the time, and they surely don't publicly rant and attempt to rewrite history like Cramer does. It seems that every week, I hear Cramer, somewhere, start a sentence with, "what I was saying was...." or "what I meant was...."

      If you have to explain it, you get an "F" in communications, Jim.

      This is where the five individuals that made money this year, following Cramer's picks, chime in to tell us that he is doing the average investor a favor (cause television is all about favors) or that to listen to Cramer is understood to be a rookie investor mistake, and that everyone has to do their own due diligence.

      There is no due diligence to do. The market will continue to slide and only ultra-inverse ETF's are worth investing in. Do you really believe any CNBC show can function under these investing circumstances?
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    • Sun Oct 12th 18:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Crash of 2008
      Nice summation of statistics and great information-filled thread.
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    • Sun Oct 12th 08:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Does Deflation Actually Happen?
      Great piece and I'd hope that this article helps the deflation camp finally realize that this path cannot be chosen and that Dr. Stephen Leeb and others are right. All governments will print money as the financial system is no longer able to provide system liquidity due to their individual insolvencies.
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    • Sun Oct 12th 07:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      5 Reasons Stocks Will Keep Falling
      So, a company like DRYS goes to a FWD P/E of 1. They have a lessened but solid cash flow. They have a fairly young collection of ships, and a group of brand new drillships, all of which are worth multiples of their market capitalization. So answer me this, Batman...Why don't they, and other low P/E companies with cash flow, and low debt/equity ratios simply take their earnings from the next year or two and buy back every share outstanding? De-list from the stock market casino and never sit through another hedge fund implosion, Cramer rant, or analyst downgrade ever again.So, a company like DRYS goes to a FWD P/E of 1. They have a lessened but solid cash flow. They have a fairly young collection of ships, and a group of brand new drillships, all of which are worth multiples of their market capitalization. So answer me this, Batman...Why don't they, and other low P/E companies with cash flow, and low debt/equity ratios simply take their earnings from the next year or two and buy back every share outstanding? De-list from the stock market casino and never sit through another hedge fund implosion, Cramer rant, or analyst downgrade ever again.
      View article »
    • Sun Oct 12th 07:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Back Room Deal? - Cramer's Mad Money (10/10/08)
      I dislike Cramer a great deal, and wondered why he would tell everyone to sell off and stay out for 5 years. What did he see? If you look at the 1929/1930 market movements, you will be struck by the correlations between the current ones. You had a peak on Sept. 3rd at 381.17 and a drop to 198.6 on that fateful October day in 1929. The recovery rally went to early April and peaked at 294. From there we had a slow roll down to 41.22 on July 8th, 1932. To correlate in a proportional way, you would need to have our 14,280 top, go to a 7,440 bottom, then rebound to 11,014 only to drop to 1,544 over a long period of time. Maybe this is what Cramer saw, and why he reacted so strangely on The Today Show. Personally, I don't believe any two time periods are governed by mathematics, but others do and isn't TA all about fulfilling preconditioned expectations via "quants" and the computer programs they run?
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    • Sat Oct 11th 23:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Using History to Plan Near-Term Investing
      Your graph's percentages are very wrong. The two 48% boxes are different sizes...I appreciate the information though. I believe that we'll have a currency crisis for Christmas, and look to ultra-inverse for the Holidays.
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 11th 18:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Crazy P/E Ratios
      Where are the Ag stocks?
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 11th 18:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Would Jim Rogers Do?
      Yes, I admit that Jim Rogers influenced my portfolio holdings, but I think I have finally realized that this "guru" is nothing more than a lucky guy at the track. I saw Jeff Gendell, my previous favorite guru, get nailed 65% to the downside this year, while Ken Heebner continues to watch his CGM Funds sink. The seemingly bullet-proof T. Boone Pickens, lost $1B on the long-side of oil, after convincing everyone that we'd see <insert large number> before we'd see <insert small number> for a barrel of oil, until he finally had to stop in September 2008. Now he's seen an alternative energy rider in the TARP bill that completely ignores wind energy, almost as if paying him back for the media campaign he's waged.

      And here's Singapore resident Jim Rogers, telling me what? Who cares....
      View article »
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