BxCapricorn

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132 Comments

    • Fri Oct 3rd 21:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Banks Hedge Counterparty Risk
      As confusing as the explanation can be, the mathematical formulas upon which these relationships are based, are far beyond the understanding of every member of a corporate board. I'd give you a link, but your brain might overload. We're talking more Greek characters than a Shipping Industry convention.
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    • Fri Oct 3rd 16:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt
      And on Seeking Alpha, Trader Mark actually uncovers th gorilla in his post

      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      Which explains very clearly the dynamics that will make Q4 hard on stocks with real earnings, like the Ag sector.
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    • Fri Oct 3rd 14:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt
      It's amazing how the invisible hand of commodity based hedge fund sell-offs, is ignored. It's the 800-lb gorilla that moves the market, and here we all are, making believe that fundamentals mean something, while making up ridiculous reasons for a stock's performance. Mosaic volume was six-fold normal when it dropped 40%. I would not be surprised if in the future, companies decide that the lack of transparency of the hedge fund players in the US stock market, prompt companies to de-list. The casino that is today's stock market is kabuki theater at its finest.
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    • Thu Oct 2nd 16:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Better Inflation Stats May Have Minimized the Current Crisis
      Great points made. Inflation is a tough sell once everything you need, can be found in someone else's garage sale for pennies on the dollar, and the house that surrounds the garage is 30-40% cheaper.
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    • Wed Oct 1st 17:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Libor Update: Still Frozen
      A lot of customers really cannot tell if their LIBOR is fresh or frozen, if it is allowed to thaw overnight in the refrigerator. I also find that marinating during the thaw process, makes LIBOR flaky and delicious.
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    • Tue Sep 30th 19:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Just Happened to Google?
      Computer errors have given us the Bush Presidential win in 2000, and the final 500 point drop on Monday. Without computer-generated, "weather models" we would have never been able to deduce the presence of global warming, and now that we have, instead of just commenting "it sure is hot this year", we are neurotically color coding and commenting on every fraction-of-a-degree change in climate. Computers are responsible for the majority of space program "glitches", costing us millions of dollars....and yet here we are, letting them sit on our laps, as if everything is cool. Don't say you haven't been warned....because you haven't. I was just making some observations....
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    • Thu Sep 25th 19:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Dummy's Guide to the U.S. Financial Crisis
      .....and now JPM with help from the FDIC, takes over WM to prevent a huge bank run! We live in amazing times indeed! First the Chia Pet and now this!
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    • Thu Sep 25th 18:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Dummy's Guide to the U.S. Financial Crisis
      BTW, it didn't take much time at all. I'll skip to the ending....

      www.bloomberg.com/apps...

      You can believe Cramer and his "VIX over 40 means the bottom" theory, or look at the TED Spread via the link and know that we're in for one hell of an October. Here's your "investment site" advice...duck and cover.
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    • Thu Sep 25th 17:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Dummy's Guide to the U.S. Financial Crisis
      It's all just a movie....we open on an empty street in lower Manhattan in the early Eighties, where a bunch of High School friends named Bear, Lehman, Merrill, Morgan, and Goldman, decide to played a cruel, twisted joke on a random target. The young toughs see someone they believe is a homeless man, due to his shabby appearance, and rough him up as he begs for mercy. They ultimately throw his lifeless body into a dumpster. This character's true identity will be unknown to us throughout the movie. Through symbolism, an item in the dumpster next to his lifeless body, we will know that the movie's "Deep Throat" like manipulator is the man in the dumpster (the same item from the dumpster is found on his office desk). We will be able to deduce that the man was not homeless, but is actually a player in both TV and the world of financial management.

      Spoiler Alert: The character who is the movie's manipulator, is in fact "Cramer". Throughout the movie, the antics of the TV personality Cramer, help to push much of the movie's action, but we do not know that he is also the one tormented at the movie's beginning.

      As a result of their torment, the stranger, who turns out to be a low-grade money manager, discovers that his ability to convince almost any small time investor, to buy almost any equity, is almost supernatural. This newly found power of persuasion, allows him to work his way into inner both financial and media power circles. The toughs grow up to run various investment banks located on Wall Street, where their gutsy hubris, allows them to take control of various financial markets.

      Cramer, meanwhile, who has always sworn revenge, positions himself in capacities where he can use his bizarre talents to "influence" large numbers of investors. He develops investment programs, founds a website, and slowly puts his master plan in place. Using the Machiavellian idea of keeping your friends close, but your enemies closer, he launches a series of ridiculous stock picks to undermine the confidence that his audience holds for him. Having properly established his buffoonery, he begins to tout "financials"... telling everyone how great certain companies are run. His plan is further developed through his friendship with a man named Angelo Mozillo, whom he introduces to the power elite on Wall Street. Angelo has a few "banks" that he owns and runs, with the help of his Uncle Ponzi. They'd like to expand, and think their model would be great for all involved.

      As the plan for further world dominance is at its most extended, the master manipulator throws a temper tantrum heard round the World, claiming that these great financial institutions will fail unless the Fed helps them get past a temporary funding problem, by cutting rates. The table is now set for consumer confidence to plummet and hedge fund managers to react to the "blood in the water".

      Caught completely unaware, Angelo finds himself the first patsy of a cycle that will eventually take down Cramer's sworn enemies. The method being used is simple. A crisis of confidence is planted, wholesale funding drys up, share price falls, short-sellers systematically take the stock price down further, the business model is questioned, lenders charge more for credit default swaps, the increased insurance costs for default protection depletes the company's ready capital, causing capital ratios to become highly leveraged and eventually challenged by the street. Cramer continues the momentum, at every turn, by constantly writing about how unfair it is, and talking about the issue on his many TV shows. Each company has to sell assets, their stock price drops further, more short selling occurs, and the cycle goes on and on, until Bear and Lehman find themselves "imploded".

      By the time Merrill figures out what is going on, he is powerless to stop the attack. He calls his childhood accomplices to warn them of what is really going on, but the clock is ticking. It's a race against time, as Merrill, Morgan and Goldman rush to find a base of capitalization, through mergers with a commercial banks that have an asset base provided by its account holders.

      I won't give away the ending....it's riveting.

      Possible Story Points:

      There as an ambitious underwriter (Meredith Whitney) who dreams of becoming a TV personality and furthering her career. We can see her in a scene where she is talking to someone at a desk, who is in the TV industry and known to us as the manipulation character. Like "Deep Throat" in "All The President's Men", we have an unknown, shadowy character that moves the action, throughout the movie. Although his exact identity is unknown to us, we do know that he is a power player with roots in TV and finance. The shadow figure in this scene, nods his understanding of Meredith's ambitions and reaches into a drawer. He pulls out a post-it laden annual report for Merrill Lynch, which he places on the desk and slides to her. We later have a scene where we see her on TV talking about balance sheets of investment banks, literally blowing the whistle on their "mark to fantasy" Level 3 assets. As the camera pulls back from the TV, we see that we are watching the TV with the shadowy figure, who nods with approval.

      Another plot twist can be the scene where Goldman and Morgan find out from Merrill, about the plot against them. They immediately go into action, shorting each other's stock, their shark-like tactics putting each other in even greater danger.

      Another key scene would involve the cloaked character, placing a phone call to Treasury Secretary Paulson in mid-2006, telling him in a disguised voice about a plot to undermine capitalism. Paulson rushes to re-form the PPT, and the Paulson character can then helps push the action throughout the movie. The mere existence of the PPT, helps to create the panic that the PPT was formed to fight.

      We know the cloaked character is probably the homeless man left for dead in a dumpster at the start of the movie, but never realize it's Cramer until the end of the movie. We do know that Cramer is in the "Eye of the Hurricane", as a TV financial personality, but believe he is sincerely trying to help his friends on Wall Street. It is not until the movie's end that we realize that the shadow manipulator is in fact Cramer, and this helps us understand the TV personality Cramer's actions. Classic thriller ending.
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    • Mon Sep 22nd 22:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Go For The Gold - Cramer's Mad Money (9/22/08)
      Oh, so now gold is good enough, after a 20-30% run up. That idiot better not jinx me. GS is undervalued, now that it's regulated as a bank, with tighter cash ratios? I don't understand his logic on anything...damn this education of mine!!!!
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    • Sat Sep 20th 20:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hank Paulson, Buy-Sider
      $700B....at a time. Read it. Enter Potato Chip Theory.....
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    • Sat Sep 20th 17:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Bull Sees Huge Run for Gold
      I'm short silver, meaning I believe that a panic will get it to rise. The panic will be created by the media, which always has to pump something, now, doesn't it? Will silver stay high? Will gold? As long as people believe in it. When that belief stops, it goes back down. Can I time it? Can you time it? We're going to try, aren't we?
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    • Sat Sep 20th 14:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It's a Bull Market in Government Intervention
      BTW, this is a global economy now. Do you honestly believe that the rest-of-the-world isn't going to gravitate towards certain items that have had universal financial appeal, throughout world history? Yes. I'm talking about powdered wigs.
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    • Sat Sep 20th 14:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It's a Bull Market in Government Intervention
      Curious wording....

      "Sec. 6. Maximum Amount of Authorized Purchases.

      The Secretary's authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time"

      At one time....why is the media suggesting it's $700B, maximum, when the actual wording is thus? This leads us to my Potato Chip Theory....
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    • Sat Sep 20th 13:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      If You Think the Dow Did Well Today, You're Wrong
      Inflation will cure the housing problem, which the government bought for pennies on the dollar. Genius. Problem is that 70 million fixed-income retirees won't be able to afford food. Hey, one problem at a time....
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