BxCapricorn

Bank Stress Test: The Cheat Sheet

Well, finally we learn that the delay this past week, allowed the banks to force a recalculation

online.wsj.com/article...

Making the whole affair, a typical power play, by the banks. Way to regulate Geithner. We have nothing but confidence in the banking system now. What's on tap for next week? Will every government official be on TV claiming the banks are great, until they have time enough to secure second offerings? Tell me one large investor that will be fooled, outside of the government?

Bank Stress Tests: How Credible Are They?

When I looked at the table on Page 9, I kept thinking..."I've seen better, more thorough work from Dick Bove..."

What does that tell us?

Massive Bank Shareholder Dilution Ahead

Very interesting article, that could only be penned by an academic. Can you imagine telling some out of work industrial worker that his paper money is no good because of a serial number, when he tries to buy beer at the 7/11, and that it needs to be confiscated?

Hello. Reality calling. You'd give the alternative barter economy a gigantic boost, while unifying every race, creed and color against the banking system. These type of "games" in order to "rig" an insolvent banking system, must stop.

I've read Mankiw's blog for years, and he's so insulated in "academia" that his posts often leave me shaking my head in disbelief. He's not as bad as Mark Perry, of the Carpe Diem blog though....and I'm out of quotation marks, so I'll leave it at that.

On Apr 20 02:43 PM SW Richmond wrote:

> There's this too:
>
> www.nytimes.com/2009/0...
>
>
> "Economic View
>
> It May Be Time for the Fed to Go Negative
> By N. GREGORY MANKIW
> Published: April 18, 2009"

Massive Bank Shareholder Dilution Ahead

How could the treasury not receive the results? Their 20 auditors performed the test, and the test was completed. That's a very strange response.


On Apr 20 10:40 AM Richard Shaw wrote:

> mac123449 -- here is copy from a Reuters article a few minutes ago
> concerning the Turner Radio Network blog you cite, and the US Treasury
> response:
>
> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Treasury Department has not yet received
> the results of "stress tests" on the health of the nation's 19 top
> banks, spokesman Andrew Williams said on Monday, after a blog said
> it had obtained the test results and some U.S. bank shares moved
> lower.
>
> Williams made the comments after banks added to losses before the
> market open following a "free speech" blog, called the Turner Radio
> Network, said 16 of the 19 are "technically insolvent." The post
> cited what it said was a U.S. government report.
>
> "There is no basis for that report, we do not even have results yet,"
> Williams said.

Short Squeeze Citi?

The exposure that these banks have, to the deflationary spiral, is enormous, and everyone should keep this in mind.

www.reuters.com/articl...

End of month stress tests, coupled with tag-team exposures, is what drives the shorts to that type of position. Banks fight back with obfuscation, accounting tricks, and taxpayer money. Someone should write a book about it.

Earnings Preview: As These 10 Companies Go, So Go Their Sectors

What you just wrote about, concerning Citigroup, almost spun my head around, one full turn. Did you not read Tyler Durden, Barry Ritholz, etc. on how AIG helped make the first two months profitable for most of the banks, due to its use of taxpayer money to honor swaps at full-face value? I do appreciate the list otherwise.

Meredith Whitney's Out on a Limb With This Citi Bashing

It's a year later, and Whitney was right about this zombie bank and its various schemes. C went to 98 cents at one point, rebounded to almost 4 dollars and is dripping back downward in early April. Without government theatrics and capital infusions, C would have been dead meat. This writer was therefore a tool who knew nothing.

Are the Big Banks Gaming the Taxpayer?

We went along with the Iraqi war for 8 years now, what makes you think we care about anything other than delivery style pizza and our MySpace pages? I think more people have an opinion on whether or not chimps should be pets than how we as a nation will survive this crisis. All I can tell you is that I'm planning on getting through this, while knowing that roughly 15% of the population is not going to. It will be their own fault that they chose to read TMZ vice Seekingalpha.

NYSE Short Interest Rises 10.7%... Sort of

The short interest...covering...... being blindsided with a Saturday announcement of the toxic bank creation, with a pre-market delivery of the news...gave us the rally. They've regrouped people because they can read and understand the news.

AIG Bonuses Are Just the Tip of the Iceberg

The MHFT is hilarious. 539 comments, and not in the top 100 who post comments here. I'm guessing your report card always said, "does not play well with others", which would be a badge of honor if you were a maverick thinker, instead of an pariah to society. Oh, what a drag. AIG "upper management" didn't get their bonus checks, free and clear, because they abused an unregulated system, akin to someone who robs an convenience store because they know they can't afford security cameras.

Is It Finally the End of the Bear Market?

Eh, where's the beef? Is that the sum total of the bullish case? Good gracious, do realize that retirement funds are pouring into the stock market based on this type of reasoning. Couldn't just watch them lose 40%, no....the stock market has to throw another 20-40% of their "nest egg" under-the-bus. Like robots, the average money manager looks at the pie chart and distributes their money into the various sectors, in a perfect Modern Portfolio ratio. It didn't work before, why not try it again though, heck, this ain't "science" people, it's a game. Spin the wheel. Heads or Tails.

Citigroup's Flush

Another update, March 5th, and C is now on the Wendy's Value Menu at $1 USD. Way to go Todd. I saw today where you're predicting an epic recovery when a rally arrives, due to the "money on the sidelines". Well if that money is Buffett's, Kerkorian's, Gendell's, Heebner's....(and the list goes on and on), I got bad news for you. It's gone. It's deleveraged, deflated, and done.

Citigroup's Flush

Another update, Jan 20th, Citicorp hits their bottom. Requires the movement of both Heaven and Earth, by invisible forces, not to completely disintergrate. Nice call on C. Glad I read SA.

Why Citigroup Imploded

I hope Prince Alaweed is correct, since there is FAZ and I expect some saw-toothing to occur.

Back Room Deal? - Cramer's Mad Money (10/10/08)

I dislike Cramer a great deal, and wondered why he would tell everyone to sell off and stay out for 5 years. What did he see? If you look at the 1929/1930 market movements, you will be struck by the correlations between the current ones. You had a peak on Sept. 3rd at 381.17 and a drop to 198.6 on that fateful October day in 1929. The recovery rally went to early April and peaked at 294. From there we had a slow roll down to 41.22 on July 8th, 1932. To correlate in a proportional way, you would need to have our 14,280 top, go to a 7,440 bottom, then rebound to 11,014 only to drop to 1,544 over a long period of time. Maybe this is what Cramer saw, and why he reacted so strangely on The Today Show. Personally, I don't believe any two time periods are governed by mathematics, but others do and isn't TA all about fulfilling preconditioned expectations via "quants" and the computer programs they run?