The Pendulum blog is an ongoing discussion of portfolio positions, investment ideas and market trends. As an investor I try to use my independence, flexibility and speed to my advantage.
I write three types of articles: (i) stock-specific articles, (ii) analysis of earnings estimates and (iii) overviews of the market that examine different asset classes. I hope you find them interesting and feel free to comment on the articles; I like the feedback. Thanks for reading!
I started thinking about stock prices in terms of a pendulum after reading Howard Marks' investor letters. Marks is the most perceptive investor about the role of investor psychology in the stock market and industry cycles. I always try to incorporate "pendulum thinking" in my analysis, meaning that it is important to think about the intrinsic value of a company as well as how investor psychology is going to drive the stock price to overshoot and undershoot that value.
I am a generalist. I am not an expert in any one sector or asset class. I have found that there is value in listening to generalists as well as experts, but it is important to be able to distinguish between the two. As a generalist, I try to add value by thinking about the relationships between things and comparing various parts of the market. Generalists can be helpful in avoiding tunnel vision and, hopefully, adding some common sense.
I like to establish a long term outlook for a company and then invest using shorter timeframes. I may be bullish on a stock and still sell it if I think it went up too much or if have concerns about the overall market. I don't mind moving to the sidelines and getting back in at a later point and I sometimes prefer to sell before earnings to reduce risk. I may invest in the opposite direction of my long term view if I think the market over-reacted one way or another. I like to hold positions for the long term, but I use stops to cut my losses. There is a difference between a good company and a good stock. Everybody has a different investing style, experience, tax status, risk tolerance, comfort range, etc., so please note that nothing that I write should be used as investment advice.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here should not be construed as investment advice. This is not tailored to specific investment objectives. Reliance on this information for the purpose of buying the securities to which this information relates may expose a person to significant risk. The information contained in this article is not intended to make any offer, inducement, invitation or commitment to purchase, subscribe to, provide or sell any securities, service or product or to provide any recommendations on which one should rely for financial, securities, investment or other advice or to take any decision. Readers are encouraged to seek individual advice from their personal, financial, legal and other advisers before making any investment or financial decisions or purchasing any financial, securities or investment related service or product.
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I've been in investment management since 1990, currently as the money manager for Worm Capital. I received my law degree from the University of Oregon in 1984, worked as an accountant for the international accounting firm KPMG, then got involved in investing. I've written over 300 columns for The Financial Times, TheStreet.com, Realmoney.com and SeekingAlpha.com.
Freebird is a chartered financial analyst, received a B.A. in both Art History and History from Colgate University. He presently is an independent investor who manages his own portfolio.
Previously, Freebird spent three years in the hedge fund industry covering Global Media, Internet and Telecom at GrayBox Capital Management. From 1994 to 2006, Freebird was an equity research analyst for Safe Habor Securities. Prior to that, he was an equity research analyst at the former Kidder, Peabody for 5 years. Freebird has been on Institutional Investor's "All-America Research Team" and achieved top 3 ranking in the Greenwich Consultants survey numerous times. He started his career in financial services as a credit analyst at the former Chemical Bank.
"Nishkama Capital LLC ("Nishkama") is an investment manager with a long / short equity strategy with a focus in the Technology, Media and Telecom (“TMT”) sectors. Nishkama also makes investments in other sectors such as Consumer, Industrials and Financials. The Founder is the Author of "The Emotionally Intelligent Investor: How Self-Awareness, Empathy and Intuition Drive Performance."
Dr. Price writes about stocks, options and the market every weekday on Real Money Pro, a subscription site onTheStreet.com.
Paul has been a speaker at the International Traders Expo in New York City and the Options and Forex Expo in Las Vegas. He also gives investment seminars for subscribers of TheStreet's multiple subscription sites.
Dr. Price is a featured contributor on Market Shadows.com, GuruFocus.com and TalkMarkets.com.
He also teaches bi-weekly investment webinars for Rule #1 Investing.