bradiop

Betting on Natural Gas, Part II: Investing Ideas

I'm surprised in mentioned gas pipeline Co's there was no mention of EPD and KMP, both of which I thought were bigger than the one mentioned.

Agree on general theme and good article.
brad

How Much Natural Gas Remains in the USA?

While I don't agree with the article it certainly did a great job at getting out comments which is very helpful to me.

Thanks for everyone's response.
brad

Natural Gas: An Energy Resource Whose Time Has Come

While there are a number of hurdles for nat gas to become a fuel for everyday transportation it gets much easier if it is focused on some special uses; i.e. long haul trucks on Interstates (only need few refueling stations) short haul trucks where truck each night return to some local depot (again only need few refueling stations). (i.e. the Pickens Plan)

Answers to Recent Questions: Taxes, K-1s, MLPs, and Why These 7 Pipeline Companies

Very informative. Thanks for the info and congrats on reading the follow-up comments and then responding in this manner.

brad

What's Driving Natural Gas?

I find this part of the analysis hard to believe:

Supply: Liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows may not flood the U.S. and domestic production could fall swiftly because it is not sustainable at current activity levels.

There seems to be fair amount of evidence the supply of gas has increased and not going to decrease.

The Nine Best Natural Gas, Oil Pipelines for Income and Capital Gains

Very informative article.
thanks,
brad

Why the Sudden Run Up in Natural Gas Prices?

This may not explain the recent price up tick but there certainly is number of activities that could lead one to believe the demand/use of natural gas will see fairly dramatic increases over the next couple years.

Maybe it is this POV that is partially driving prices; surely the supply/demand comes into play sometime.
brad

Master Limited Partnerships for Your Portfolio: Three Key Questions and Answers

Very informative article.
thanks,
brad

Canadian Oil Sands' Distribution Set to Rise

I hope as they move to a more classic Corporate legal structure they don't change their dividend paying approach; time will tell
brad

Canadian Oil Sands: Higher Quarterly Distribution Looks Likely

I hope this is true but some of the recent words by the CEO sounds to me like more emphasis on investments and capital expenditures vs dividends which is what one might expect under a Corporate legal structure. We'll see.
brad


On Jul 07 07:44 PM a. palmer jr. wrote:

> Uh...it appears some of the other Canadian oil trusts are going the
> other way, namely HTE and PWE that I have. I haven't seen any sign
> of them raising dividends. I wish they'd hurry up and do something
> before that Canadian thing happens in a couple of years.

Canadian Oil Sands: Higher Quarterly Distribution Looks Likely

I hope this is true but some of the recent words by the CEO sounds to me like more emphasis on investments and capital expenditures vs dividends which is what one might expect under a Corporate legal structure. We'll see.
brad

Which Vehicle Is Best for a Long Bet on Oil?

I agree some form of oil asset makes good sense.
I would add if one feel inflation is in our future; driven by our borrowing and printing money, then investing in Canadian oil related company becomes play on the oil theme and hedge against inflation.
I personally have positions in Canadian Oil Sands (coswf) and Enerpus (ERF)
Good luck.
brad

10 Dangerous Stocks to Avoid

I concur, the analysis is far short of being very deep. Would one look at Debt for company such as GM and equate it the same as to railroads or others with good cash flow. I own EPD and as other have mentioned when you have a solid business, nearly guaranteed cash flow with growth opportunities I would suggest not all Debt looks the same,


On Apr 04 11:01 AM Sanitychecker wrote:

> Let me guess you are short some or all of these stocks. Naked short?
> You may want to reevaluate that decision on some or all of them.
>
>
> You are right. Leverage can be a good or a bad thing. It must be
> investigated. So let's see what is under the covers of IBM during
> the period you show the most dramatic increase in their debt to equity
> ratios between 2007 and 2008.
>
> The ratio can change higher by debt rising or the equity position
> falling. Debt rising occurs from taking on more debt ( more troublesome
> might be exchanging higher coast debt for lower cost debt but we
> won't digress since that didn't happen). The dollar amount of stock
> holders equity can fall due to a fall in the price of stock or reducing
> the number outstanding shares.
>
> During 2008, IBM issued $13.8B new long term debt and retired $10B
> for a net increase of $3.8B in debt. That would increase their LT
> Debt to Equity ratio. They also repurchased $10.6B worth of equity.
> The result of both would decrease their debt to equity ratio so why
> did it increase? Oh. yea! The price of the stock must have dropped
> some during 2008. Between January 2nd and December 31st 2008, IBM
> stock fell over 18% (it actually had a 45% swing from high to low
> during the year) So. IBM is making positive moves in their capital
> structure but being penalized in the capital markets.
>
> Perhaps a better way to look at the possible consequences of a high
> debt to equity ratio is to look at how well IBM can afford the level
> of debt it has taken on. Let's see. Between 2007 and 2008 , IBM's
> Gross Income has risen from $41.3B to $45.34B, EBIT increased 18%
> from $15.1B to 17.4B, Net Cash Flow from operations increased 17%
> from $16B to $18.8B, Capital surplus increased from $34.8B to $38.8B
> and Retained earnings grew from $60.7B to $70.35B. And most important,
> their interest coverage ratio is 25.8 times. It doesn't seem to
> be an issue for IBM to pay it's Long Term Debt obligations, nor does
> it seem that their Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Capital Structure
> or Cash Flow would give ANY bank or lender pause.
>
> I wouldn't be surprised to see you didn't do your homework on any
> of the other stocks as well. I suggest you find a different advertisement
> of the advice you have to offer from your web site........... (In
> full disclosure, I own COP, IBM and ETP(closely related to EPD),
> all for different reasons but for reasons based on research and analysis
> of fundamental and technical reasons. That is the bottoms up part.)

Verizon to Add Home Energy Management to FiOS

This sounds more like let's get some free PR. Very light on detail, like none at all. My guess is the smart meter has more to do with eliminating meter readers than any other tangible benefits.

Anyone hear of smart thermostats?
brad

Atlas Pipeline Partners: A Painful Lesson in MLP Investing

Good article and great advise about understanding investment before investing.
I own a couple of MPL's and think you may be characterizing all MPL's poorly in light of a specific attribute of APL. APL had its revenue and margin highly tied to commodity prices. Sopme MPL's revenue and margins are not at all or not very highly tied to commodity prices and their business model is they get paid fixed prices on volume of product shipped and not tied to commodity prices.

Again thanks for great insight.
regards,