REG CROWDER

How Low Can the Dollar Go?

Dear MAD HEDGE,

For the record, Bill Cara knows EVERYTHING about Canada. Prior to launching his trading advisory firm in the Bahamas, he had a lengthy and successful career in business in Canada. Among other things, he was the co-founder and CEO of Qtrade Investors, Canada's leading online broker. And so on. You get the picture.

As for your observations on the Canadian economy, you are absolutely correct. The Canadian dollar certainly has a brighter future than the U.S. dollar. You only need U.S. dollars if you need to buy something from the US. And the U.S. has nothing to sell but debt securities.

There's a good reason for the Fed and Treasury constantly saying they aren't going to monetize the debt: Because that's exactly what they're going to do. They have to. There's no alternative.

REG CROWDER - www.RegCrowder.com

Google's Knol Poses a Threat to Mahalo

I'm not sure where The Land of Knol is headed but I decided to try it out for myself. This is the URL:

knol.google.com/k/reg-...

REG CROWDER
International Investing (A Google Knol)

Do Emerging Market ETFs Really Help You Diversify?

HOWEVER, A RECENT "IMF WORKING PAPER" CONCLUDES THAT SIGNIFICANT DECOUPLING (DIVERGENCE) TOOK PLACE BETWEEN 1985 AND 2005.

I get into this decoupling versus convergence thing in my Google Knol entitled, "International Investing." If you're curious, this is the URL:

knol.google.com/k/reg-...

The article includes a link that will allow you to download the entire IMF working paper as a PDF file at no charge.

This is the precise information you will need to make sure you get the correct document: IMF Working Paper No. WP/08/143, "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?" June 2008. Prepared by M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok and Eswar S. Prasad. Authorized for distribution by Stijn Claessens.

Here is a brief portion of the abstract:

"Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them."

I suspect the sudden explosion of interest in "frontier" funds represents an effort to gain exposure to that decoupling.

REG CROWDER
Freelance Financial and Investment Writer

knol.google.com/k/reg-...

www.journalistdirector...

www.RegCrowder.com

The Global Economy May Still Be Growing Too Fast

Yeah, if you push this macroeconomic stimulus thing too far, you're going to burn the place to the ground. The central banks should be aware by now that the developed economies can't flip a few switches and fine-tune what's going on in the emerging market economies.

In the process of trying to drag the discussion of international investing into reality, I had to address the "non-converging world" at this URL:

knol.google.com/k/reg-...

Look for this heading: 'CONVERGENCE' NONSENSE BURIED

I discuss International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper No. 08/143 which carries the title,"Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?" I've included a link to the place on the IMF website where you can download the entire 50-page document (hey, I've seen worse) as a PDF file for free. Enjoy!

REG CROWDER
Freelance Financial and Investment Writer
London, England & Brittany, France

knol.google.com/k/reg-...

www.journalistdirector...

A Conversation with Nobel Laureate William F. Sharpe

I found the response to the question about international diversification downright evasive:

"The benefit of having companies headquartered in different countries in your portfolio is probably less than it used to be, but that is not to say that it isn't there and it isn't worth doing."

Well, sure ...

I don't care where the headquarters building is, either. I care about the location of the operations and markets, where the brain power is coming from and how the investing style of the principal investors might impact upon the company. I think all of those factors matter.

On the international question, I think he was tap dancing. But that's not a hanging offense, especially on Wall Street. Sounds like a nice guy.

REG CROWDER
Freelance Business Journalist
London, UK & Brittany, France
www.RegCrowder.com
www.journalistdirector...

Mexican, Australian ETFs Top 10-Year Returns

Carl, this was definitely a point worth making. I think we're going to see some outstanding performance from non-US ETFs for many years to come. For retail investors just taking their first look at international investing, non-US ETFs are a GREAT first step.

REG CROWDER
Freelance Business Journalist
London, UK & Brittany, France
www.RegCrowder.com
www.journalistdirector...

Global Hedge Fund Managers Optimistic For Industry Performance In 2008

WELL SAID, GENTLEMEN!

www.sourcewire.com/jou...

www.MediaBistro.com/Re...

NewStar Financial Inc. Q3 2007 Earnings Call Transcript

To Tim Conway and John Bray, all I have to say is, "Nice work." It looks like you managed to find your way through the sharp rocks in the reef and get the ship into harbor before the storm hit. Not a bad trick, considering the number of your distinguished competitors who were seemingly oblivious to the storm on the horizon.

REG CROWDER
London, UK & Brittany, France

www.sourcewire.com/jou...

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Two SPACs and a Biotech Trading Below Net Assets

Cash-per-share versus market-price-per-share is a good starting point. But it isn't the finish line. Before taking a position in a stock based upon cash, spend a little time looking for things that might cause that cash to disappear in a heartbeat. Troll through the SEC filings for evidence of off-balance-sheet debt and other forms of debt that can be kept off the main pages of the financial statements but are too hot to leave out of SEC filings. This would include preferred shares convertible to debt, preferred shares with performance benchmarks that trigger mandatory dividends, options and warrants for so-called equity that has these kinds of provisions, buyback contracts, deferred compensation contracts that create binding obligations for the company -- those sorts of things.

In the case of high-tech stock, there is another, additional, hard-to-find vulnerability. Is the company being set up (from the inside) to be stolen by a buyout fund, private equity technology fund or distressed asset fund? Look for a key person in the high tech company's management (maybe on the board, maybe carefully kept off the board to avoid attracting attention) who is on the board of a buyout fund, private equity technology fund or distressed asset fund.

Is the management's profit sharing plan being moved to an offshore jurisdiction such as the Cayman Islands, British West Indies, the Bahamas or a former British colony in the Pacific region? This is another danger signal.

There is serious money to be made searching for nuggets of gold in obscure and out-of-favor stocks. But as the sergeant used to say at roll-call on Hill Street Blues, "Be careful out there."

REG CROWDER
Freelance Business Journalist
London, UK & Brittany, France

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