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  • Arena Pharmaceutical's Belviq Requires Patience And Understanding [View article]
    Thanks for publishing this article Jim!
    It is great to read an article on Arena and Belviq that is intelligent and balanced. It gets SO tiring reading articles where insignificant issues are hyped to justify a negative viewpoint, and positive developments are overlooked completely.

    Your comment about weight loss drugs working counter to a basic human human survival trigger was insightful. For obesity drugs to succeed, those people who are accustomed to satisfying that survival impulse (eating) will need to become educated and motivated to act in a way that is counter to that survival trigger. Of course that has been effected in our society in the past, and will in the future.

    Maybe 2015 will be Belviq's and Arena's year?
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:38 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Gives Pipeline Exposure - Is The Company Partner Shopping? [View article]
    Thank you for the reasonable, informative comment ControlledRisk! Sometimes Arena's marketing and development process seems painfully slow, but it hasn't given its detractors any ammunition to attack it with. They have been reduced to inventing problems, and building futile expectations that they turn around and then use as fodder to attack Arena when these specious expectations are not realized.

    Also, I echo your request to phemale60. And I would add: get a life phemale! Go where your non-comments are valued (or at least just go away..). Cheers!
    Jul 19, 2014. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Continue Up As Others Decline [View article]
    Thanks for this comment SP500. The difference between the sales buildup of an"instant gratification" drug product (a sex drug or instant-relief pain killer) and a revolutionary life-changing drug product that works over a period of months is insightful.

    Why do I describe Belviq as a "revolutionary life-changing drug product"? The Viagra user pops his pill and gets instant but short-lived relief from his immediate condition. The Belviq user pops his pill over time and finds he has the health/renewed-stamina to no longer need the Viagra, but also have improved self esteem, more confidence and optimism about life (no need for Xanax now!), and can throw away other meds (high blood pressure, possibly cancer meds, etc.).

    And none of the Arena investors who are long this stock need to be told that Arena has its own pain medication based on this revolutionary technology in development (check out the excellent January 16 Seeking Alpha article by KLLJ investments that highlights current exciting Arena drug products progressing in the clinical pipeline).

    It can be hard to see Arena's stock price forced downward by synthetic puts/calls action, but this "trader" manipulation will only work during this first drug roll-out. Belviq sales keep climbing and the medical community is slowly getting educated about Belviq's excellent effectiveness and safety. After Belviq becomes a household word like "Viagra" market forces will dominate the stock (as it skyrockets in value!) in stead of "trader" manipulation.
    Feb 22, 2014. 10:54 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals' CEO Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    User418,

    You must be one of those people who believe if you say a lie often enough it will become the truth?

    Belviq's weekly sales have been increasing approximately 6% per week. Belviq's refills during its drug roll out have been about three times what its nearest competitor (Qsymia) was showing during its drug roll out. Arena has international partners (other than Eisai), is developing collaborations with other big pharma partners (Merck, etc.), is being granted patents for its novel drug research (extended patent protection = $$$$$$$$$$$$$!), costs are being managed intelligently, Arena has almost 250 million of cash currently in the bank, etc.

    The reason Wall Street is starting to OPENLY jump in to this stock is because THE GOOD NEWS KEEPS COMING IN, and attempts to misrepresent the company are too absurd for even Wall Street "analysts".
    Nov 9, 2013. 02:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Flat - Equity Holds [View article]
    @m_yossi,

    Thank you for contributing the links to the charts for:
    1) Unadjusted TRx, Symphony Numbers
    2) Percentage change in stock price for Arena, Vivus, and Orex
    3) Percentage change in stock price for Arena, last five days

    It helps to see Belviq's sales vs. its nearest competitor. The proper selection of metric to evaluate a company can mean the difference between investing success or failure. Short term metrics can reflect the manipulation tactics used on a company or product, and may not reflect on the value of either. But it is more expensive to manipulate a stock against its true market value over a longer period of time. Arena's drug products (Belviq, other drugs being developed in pipeline) have the potential to disrupt drug markets cumulatively worth hundreds of billions of dollars. The stakes are very high for those other drug competitors and justify a high investment to disrupt a new competitor. But in the long term value will shake out. It appears that Arena's longs are holding tight to their stocks because they trust the long term potential of Arena's products (long term: 1 month, 3 months, 6 months?), not simply last week's sales...

    Cheers!
    Oct 19, 2013. 02:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales: 17 Weeks In [View article]
    "As yet arena is not "doing well"."

    Of course Spencer that is YOUR opinion.

    A number of the readers commenting on your articles have supplied graphs of Belviq vs Qsymia sales that show clearly how well Belviq is performing during its drug roll-out vs. its nearest competitor: http://bit.ly/1bsu7V6 Real world patient testimonials are rolling in and they are generally excellent, exceeding what was seen in the clinical studies: http://bit.ly/19FzKMw DTC advertising is steadily expanding and news reports are starting to broadcast in the larger metropolitan areas around the country (http://bit.ly/19BWVtg , http://bit.ly/1fN6vy1 ). Last week's refills have been reported to be up 9.78% week over week (which is EXCELLENT to anyone with eyes to see).

    I quoted Warren Buffett to "rnn" (above). The constant FUD sprayed around the internet by contract bashers is only effective as a short term strategy. As your article title says, this is only week 17. Arena's management team keeps surprising Wall Street with sales increases, advertising, strategic alliances around the globe, etc. Jack Lief and company will shake off the parasites shorting the stock and responsible for the "fail to fill" stock action soon enough. No worries!
    Oct 14, 2013. 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales: 17 Weeks In [View article]
    @rnn,

    Your welcome to the laugh rnn, even when the conditions for it are invented in your own mind. I never used the word "conspiracy", a word that is used these days to smear and malign others. But to return the courtesy: lithium might help with that persecution complex.

    "The one who laughs last, laughs best." Ever hear that one? Arena longs understand why the contract bashers are working all day and all night posting FUD on the Yahoo Message Board, and around the internet. A bad stock doesn't need to be talked down. And the greater a stock's potential, the more effort needs to be expended to misrepresent it.

    I'm sure that's not you. You just appear to be disoriented.

    Warren Buffett said that "If a business does well, the stock eventually follows." Arena longs understand this principle. This is why we are patiently holding our stock.
    Oct 14, 2013. 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales: 17 Weeks In [View article]
    @rnn,

    I read the article online that you're probably referencing. (You didn't include a link so there is no way for me to be sure that the one I read is the one you are commenting on.)

    The author of the article didn't reference any of the examples of real-world effectiveness that are starting to come in from around the country. Because real-world effectiveness is excellent and now available, there is no reason to discuss clinical results when discussing Belviq's effectiveness. Real-world results are ultimately the only thing consumers, the medical community, and Wall Street are interested in.

    Also the author misrepresented the clinical effectiveness results in the article. The author says that "In a study, the average weight loss over the course of a year using Belviq was 3.7% more of a person’s total body weight than the patients on placebo." but a reader corrected the article's misreporting with the fact that "Responders on BELVIQ lost an average of 11-12% of their weight in a year. "

    Just another hit piece using distorted facts to try to spread FUD about Belviq.

    Too much money to be made in the weight loss industry by the current players whose weight loss solutions have been proven by the general public to be non-solutions (as evidenced by the rising obesity rates in the U.S).

    The only individuals/organizations advocating "sell" are the ones hoping to scoop up shares from current investors. Retail and institutions aren't selling.
    Oct 12, 2013. 05:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Tracking Belviq Refills [View article]
    Hi Spencer,

    Assuming stock splits is a "dangerous" thing? If looking ahead and using other industry leader's stock behavior as a guide is a "dangerous" thing, then maybe none of us (except the very brave) should be in this market!

    Of course starting your own business, taking out loans for a college degree (hoping that you will be able to find a job when you get out), and other similar economic activities are similarly "dangerous".

    Of course part of the game of investing is seeing the data and interpreting it properly to arrive at its true value. As "russim" points out below, when referring to this article's graph, "Raw week to week growth @ 9% is a red negative, unbelievable!". Apparently you feel that a 9% growth rate merits a "red" value?

    A chart that I found useful as an aid to interpret Belviq's potential market penetration and profitability was constructed by SP500Guy:
    http://bit.ly/17kURTj

    Check it out!

    I think it illustrates the actual potential of this drug's marketability and profit potential!

    Cheers!
    Oct 8, 2013. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Tracking Belviq Refills [View article]
    @SidtheKid,

    Thanks for the link. Great article!

    I know the following calculation is already understood by most of the investors visiting these boards, but I offered this investing example to a past co-worker to help her understand the potential in an Arena investment. She was divorced with four kids, renting, and trying to find a way to make ends meet.

    A $2,100.00 investment in Arena at today's share price ($4.50), after three splits and a run-up to $80/share will be worth about $298,240.00. Definitely worth the risk!
    Oct 8, 2013. 02:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Tracking Belviq Refills [View article]
    @m_yossi,

    Thank you for posting those links to the chart of Belviq vs. Qsymia refills and the discussion of "Refills" and "Confirmed Refills". For "analysts" who are primarily interested in confusing and distracting the retail investment community as much as possible, the refill vs. new prescription accounting situation must be a heaven-sent opportunity for confusion.

    Of course this confusion is only useful in the short term during the drug roll-out before actual sales and profits are posted. Belviq's safety, effectiveness, and treatment advantages over what's available out there will shine brighter as the weeks pass. As your chart shows (http://bit.ly/1b6Ew8S), Belviq's refill counts are tracking about 250% higher than its nearest competitor.

    The only way the HF's and similar well-funded corporate raiders can get their hands on retail investor's shares (before the inevitable run-up) is by flogging the short-term investment outlook. Belviq sales overall are currently 250% greater than their nearest competitor, and as DTC advertising takes hold, this outstanding novel drug (with extended patent protection) will pull in increasingly larger sales and profits.

    Last quarter Arena beat the industry analyst's average expectations and posted an increase in profits of 213% (relative to the previous year's quarter). 213%! Once again, since the drug roll-out most analysts are talking Arena's profitability down (while Yahoo Message Board bashers are constantly exhorting Longs to sell their shares...). It is beginning to look like Arena's profits by fiscal year's end will be truly MONUMENTAL!

    Retail investors have been holding tight to their shares. The only thing better than a "10 bagger" stock is a 20, 30, or 40 bagger stock. After splits and the release of the new novel drugs for pain killer, autoimmune disease, and thrombotic diseases (See EnhydrisPECorp's article "Deep Value In Arena's Pipeline", http://bit.ly/15TAqmh), this company is likely to set new records for growth and valuation in its market sector.

    I'm willing to hold onto my shares for a couple of years if the value of my shares will go from $$,$$$.00 to $,$$$,$$$.00! (or maybe even $$,$$$,$$$.00!)

    Cheers!
    Oct 8, 2013. 01:27 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Force To Double? [View article]
    @morphin, "The Tricare formulary covers employees of the Department of Defense and their families. Several million people are included in the plan..." (July 18, 2013 SA article "Arena's Belviq Gets Insurance Traction", Spencer Osborne).

    It is hard to get more "U.S. Government" than the Department of Defense. Most investors took this endorsement of Belviq (indirect through the approval of the drug for insurance coverage) by the DOD to be the signal that the U.S. Government is actively supporting Belviq's use. The implementation of the Affordable Care Act will eventually (maybe quickly), make Belviq available and affordable to tens of millions of Americans.

    The immediate placement of a Belviq advertisement in Oprah's magazine in the first week of the kick-off of DTC advertising is also suggestive of the current U.S. administration's positive opinion of Belviq since it is well known that Oprah and Obama are friends, and Oprah supports Obama's agendas.

    Nothing but "net" for Arena's DTC advertising campaign so far!
    Oct 2, 2013. 02:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Sales Force To Double? [View article]
    "It is no secret that sales of Belviq have been below expectations."

    That is the perception that analysts have been working VERY hard to manufacture among investors. How have they been working to manufacture this perception? By comparing Belviq sales to a continually changing series of sales standards to justify the argument that sales were under-performing. Over the last few months these sales "standards" have been changed as Belviq sales have eclipsed these values. It is hard to make an argument for unsuccessful sales when the sales values DO exceed the standard used for measurement!

    "Analysts" initially were comparing Belviq sales to its nearest competitor, Qsymia, but because Belviq has been posting sales approximately 250% higher than Qsymia's (for the same period in its drug roll-out) these same analysts have had to find new ways to report sales progress to justify their bearish sentiments.

    In Arena's September 27 presentation by Craig Audit, "NewsMakers in the Biotech Industry" (a link to the PowerPoint presentation can be found on the Arena website under "News Releases" > "Events & Presentations"), on page 6, a graph of sales is shown. It shows clearly the steady progress that Belviq sales have been making during the drug roll-out period in which sales were doctor-driven (no DTC advertising). Readers have commented that the initial phase of the drug roll-out would be governed by an arithmetic function, but that DTC advertising would be governed by a Power Function. This September 27 report covers the "arithmetic function" period of sales, and as was mentioned before, the nearest logical comparison would be Vivus' Qsymia which, under the same sale constraints as Belviq DID sell below Wall Street's expectations.

    In the famous video of Mad Money's Jim Cramer discussing market manipulation tactics (http://bit.ly/187ExXY), he explains that one trick that is pulled on investors by market insiders is first publishing some negative information about a stock, then selling off a quantity of shares to try to create the impression that "the market" is responding to the negative news with a stock sell off. The idea is to try to stampede retail investors like cattle into selling their shares at below market prices. The shares are then scooped up by the insiders and retail investors later find out that the negative news was a distortion of the truth or an outright lie.

    Many of Arena's Longs are savvy investors who understand these sophomoric tactics and haven't sold in the face of this blatant market manipulation (that has gone on for more than a year now). As the excellent sales numbers continue to be reported for Belviq, Long investors continue to hold their shares as Wall Street and shorts frantically try to find ways to shake loose those same shares. Thus the high trading volumes of the last few days. I will not be surprised if the next officially reported distribution of shares shows that no substantial change of ownership percentage by retail investors has occurred.

    NOTE: I stated "Wall Street and shorts" because I believe the market interest is shifting from shorts just wanting to escape from their short positions at a less-than-disastrous cost, to additionally, Hedge Funds and other institutions wanting to try to find a way to go Long on the stock. It is difficult to buy shares if the current retail and institutional investors don't want to sell!

    This company is performing, and so will the stock price. As Warren Buffet said, "If a business does well, the stock eventually follows."

    Longs understand this, are not fooled, and are holding onto their shares.
    Oct 2, 2013. 10:01 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Arena Be Able To Write A Growth Story? [View article]
    Yeah, the "including O, The Opera Magazine." was kind of weird, huh? I guess the copywriters were out back behind the trash bin smoking a doobie?

    "However, the drug sales didn't pick up." Belviq's drug sales AND REFILLS are tracking at about 250% greater than Qsymia during the same period in their drug roll-out. Pretty significant don't you think?

    The metrics that you chose to measure Belviq's sales performance are not representative of how well this drug is actually doing.

    A few months ago all of the "analysts" were comparing Belviq to Qsymia. Now they are trying to find other "yardsticks". Why? Because Belviq has clobbered all of the Qsymia standards and these "analysts" can't write a hit article using those measuring tools anymore: Belviq is setting the new standard for drug effectiveness and sales performance.

    These paid shills writing hit pieces on the company will eventually move on to the next Wall Street target. Smart investors are getting in while the stock price is artificially lowered. Won't stay low for long!
    Oct 1, 2013. 11:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Arena, Belviq Refills Are Becoming Key [View article]
    m_yossi,

    Thank you for taking the time to generate the graphs (with links above) and make them available to the retail investment community. I find them to be much clearer than Spencer's graph above showing all of the red. The reader is left with the impression from Spencer's graph that something terribly wrong is happening with Belviq's sales. Your graphs and Craig Audet's graph of Beliq's TRx sales for the first 3 months tell a VERY different story (Presentation for "Newsmakers in the Biotech Industry", September 27, 2013" - available from the Arena corporation website! http://bit.ly/19duFe8 ).

    It is apparent from your's and Arena's graphs that sales progress is excellent. When DTC advertising will kick in, and how it will effect sales numbers, should be exciting for Long Arena investors and the Wall Street financial sector to watch.

    It is disappointing to see such outstanding Belviq sales success represented so depressingly in this article.

    Spencer's SA article before this included a number of comments from readers questioning the veracity of your "I am long Arena" statement usually included with these SA articles. In this article he questions SP500ChartCom why he "always want to find something wrong with anything I write."

    It appears that SP500ChartCom is NOT one individual who questions Spencer's analysis and reporting on Arena, but ONE OF MANY.
    Sep 28, 2013. 02:23 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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