Randy_H's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/111617/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/140920-tuesday-s-taste-of-taleb?source=feed#comment-787029 787029
For reference, no nationstate with modern military, capable of credibly projected said military abroad, or which is the protectorate of such a nation, has ever suffered from true hyperinflation. In fact, it is just such a condition which historically ends a bout of hyperinflation. So, were the US to actually succumb to a 1% per day inflation rate, there would be no way to predict the value of much of anything globally, much less where the borders might be drawn on various maps around the world thereafter.]]> Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:47:51 -0500
For reference, no nationstate with modern military, capable of credibly projected said military abroad, or which is the protectorate of such a nation, has ever suffered from true hyperinflation. In fact, it is just such a condition which historically ends a bout of hyperinflation. So, were the US to actually succumb to a 1% per day inflation rate, there would be no way to predict the value of much of anything globally, much less where the borders might be drawn on various maps around the world thereafter.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168901-nassim-taleb-confronts-critics?source=feed#comment-786807 786807 Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:23:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136180-the-new-macroshares-housing-funds-revealed?source=feed#comment-499079 499079

On May 10 12:14 AM johngonole wrote:

> wrong and you lose big. I would prefer an instrument like this that
> is one to one without any leverage. That is if prices move up 1%
]]> Mon, 11 May 2009 12:27:51 -0400

On May 10 12:14 AM johngonole wrote:

> wrong and you lose big. I would prefer an instrument like this that
> is one to one without any leverage. That is if prices move up 1%
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127196-housing-conversation-needs-a-dose-of-reality?source=feed#comment-437900 437900
I have been blogging about this for years now. And I am one who sold my home in 2005 after a decade of ridiculous gains (and one trade up).

Let me tell you why, exactly, I and those like me are loathe to talk too much about what "winners" we are: People don't like us.

I've been told that I'm the "other side of the coin" from flippers who exploited on the way up. I've heard from Obama's press secretary that people who are trying to profit off of the troubles in housing will not be rewarded. I've been called a "housing market short seller". I've been told that I also need to be taxed at 90% on any gains I made selling my house, since I didn't buy another one in a reasonable period of time.

The fact is, there is a large mass-feeling that people who bought homes all along, naive of the bubble, consciously or not, were the wholesome folks just doing the right thing -- living the American Dream(tm). Meanwhile, folks like me broke from the herd. While we ended up being right, we were wrong to go it alone. To try to pull a fast one. To bail out on everyone else. ...

You get the point. The main thing is that those feelings are real, and people are pissed. They are pissed at realtors(tm). They are pissed at mortgage brokers. They are pissed at bankers bankers. They are pissed at Congress. And, they are pissed at anyone who made money in the bubble, whether that be flippers or peak-sellers.]]> Tue, 24 Mar 2009 09:11:22 -0400
I have been blogging about this for years now. And I am one who sold my home in 2005 after a decade of ridiculous gains (and one trade up).

Let me tell you why, exactly, I and those like me are loathe to talk too much about what "winners" we are: People don't like us.

I've been told that I'm the "other side of the coin" from flippers who exploited on the way up. I've heard from Obama's press secretary that people who are trying to profit off of the troubles in housing will not be rewarded. I've been called a "housing market short seller". I've been told that I also need to be taxed at 90% on any gains I made selling my house, since I didn't buy another one in a reasonable period of time.

The fact is, there is a large mass-feeling that people who bought homes all along, naive of the bubble, consciously or not, were the wholesome folks just doing the right thing -- living the American Dream(tm). Meanwhile, folks like me broke from the herd. While we ended up being right, we were wrong to go it alone. To try to pull a fast one. To bail out on everyone else. ...

You get the point. The main thing is that those feelings are real, and people are pissed. They are pissed at realtors(tm). They are pissed at mortgage brokers. They are pissed at bankers bankers. They are pissed at Congress. And, they are pissed at anyone who made money in the bubble, whether that be flippers or peak-sellers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127152-the-geithner-plan-faq?source=feed#comment-435950 435950
You know, it could be that these so-called "toxic assets" aren't undervalued, but really are worth squat, but that the world won't end because of that nonetheless.

You can always pick out a lame argument when it starts right off offering you a false-choice. Sorry Brad, it's not a simple binary either-or scenario. Were it that easy, we wouldn't be debating all this.]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 21:00:18 -0400
You know, it could be that these so-called "toxic assets" aren't undervalued, but really are worth squat, but that the world won't end because of that nonetheless.

You can always pick out a lame argument when it starts right off offering you a false-choice. Sorry Brad, it's not a simple binary either-or scenario. Were it that easy, we wouldn't be debating all this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126772-truth-and-consequences-of-the-fed-purchasing-treasuries?source=feed#comment-432172 432172
One thing is for sure. It's hard to know what's going on with all the BS coming out of every organ of government these days. That includes Ron Paul, the genius who'd eliminate the Fed entirely. Sure. That's akin to unilateral nuclear disarmament. I don't like the Fed anymore than nuclear weapons. But I recognize why we need to maintain both.]]> Thu, 19 Mar 2009 09:58:49 -0400
One thing is for sure. It's hard to know what's going on with all the BS coming out of every organ of government these days. That includes Ron Paul, the genius who'd eliminate the Fed entirely. Sure. That's akin to unilateral nuclear disarmament. I don't like the Fed anymore than nuclear weapons. But I recognize why we need to maintain both.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125804-cramer-grilled-on-jon-stewart?source=feed#comment-427098 427098
Stewart bitches about populism, then happily resorts to it when convenient. Santelli is just a Chicago trader who, unlike Cramer & Stewart, didn't carefully plan his entry into this fiasco as a well-designed publicity stunt. You could see it on his face whenever some inane ideologue like Kudlow interviewed him shortly after his rant.

The fact is, like it or not, Santelli was right. Stewart was right, but took the cheapest, easiest route by skewering Rick. And Cramer is a clown. As for Stewart's arguments about how anyone on CNBC is tarnished simply by being on the station: uh, John, you're on MTV. You know, like you're no Ken Ober. Sorry.]]> Sun, 15 Mar 2009 23:15:32 -0400
Stewart bitches about populism, then happily resorts to it when convenient. Santelli is just a Chicago trader who, unlike Cramer & Stewart, didn't carefully plan his entry into this fiasco as a well-designed publicity stunt. You could see it on his face whenever some inane ideologue like Kudlow interviewed him shortly after his rant.

The fact is, like it or not, Santelli was right. Stewart was right, but took the cheapest, easiest route by skewering Rick. And Cramer is a clown. As for Stewart's arguments about how anyone on CNBC is tarnished simply by being on the station: uh, John, you're on MTV. You know, like you're no Ken Ober. Sorry.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124658-has-the-u-s-layoff-trend-turned?source=feed#comment-417520 417520
These aggregate charts and tables don't properly consider the hugely bimodal nature of the data. Layoffs have probably peaked in low-flexibility sections of the labor market, like unionized government and health workers. But make no mistake, among educated, higher end, knowledge, finance and high-end service workers the real pain is yet to come.

Europe's job losses will be delayed by 6 months or more, due to their labor law frictions. Again, among the guys I work with, they're still trying to work through cutting people they'd ranked out in late December. It can take a year to get rid of someone in Germany, for example.]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 19:53:27 -0500
These aggregate charts and tables don't properly consider the hugely bimodal nature of the data. Layoffs have probably peaked in low-flexibility sections of the labor market, like unionized government and health workers. But make no mistake, among educated, higher end, knowledge, finance and high-end service workers the real pain is yet to come.

Europe's job losses will be delayed by 6 months or more, due to their labor law frictions. Again, among the guys I work with, they're still trying to work through cutting people they'd ranked out in late December. It can take a year to get rid of someone in Germany, for example.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124602-the-rally-when-it-comes-will-be-a-doozy?source=feed#comment-416813 416813
Sometimes this board reads like a realtor forum: "it's always a good time to buy!"]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 20:58:13 -0500
Sometimes this board reads like a realtor forum: "it's always a good time to buy!"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124335-bofa-wells-fargo-no-equity-after-accounting-for-bad-loans?source=feed#comment-415850 415850

On Mar 05 12:33 PM Chris B wrote:

> But continuing the analogy, if the fire sale price that I could sell
> my house for in 1 day is $20k, but I could put it on the market and
> sell it within 6 mos for $150k, and perhaps 1 year for $180k, what's
> the house actually worth? To me, it's $150-180k, because I have
> no intention of giving it away at a fire sale.

What passes for financial "wisdom" these days is astounding.

a) If your house is "worth" anywhere near $150K, then it will surely sell for more than $20K in a reasonably short time.

b) For an illiquid asset, 1 day is not a reasonably short time. Houses cannot, as a general rule, be sold in 1 day due to transaction frictions. A reasonably short period for selling residential real estate is 30-45 days.

c) I'm happy that you have no intention of "giving away" your house. That's irrelevant to the market price except insofar as it shows sticky price phenomenon. The idea is that you may change your mind, or have your mind changed for you by circumstances. In that case, what is your house worth? The best laid plans don't always materialize regardless of your vigor in stating your case. If I'm loaning you money or otherwise capitalizing your sitting there in your home office typing Seeking Alpha advice, then I want to know what your home is really worth as dictated by the market, not by your wishes for the future.

Your comment adds further evidence to my thesis that there are very few honest, free market participants in our supposed free market capitalism. Rather, people only embrace the free market when they're winning, and suddenly want to resort to rule changes when they are losing. (And don't start with arguments about when the FAS rules changed on MtM; fair value accounting has been a known factor for a long time prior for other reasons.)]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 10:08:10 -0500

On Mar 05 12:33 PM Chris B wrote:

> But continuing the analogy, if the fire sale price that I could sell
> my house for in 1 day is $20k, but I could put it on the market and
> sell it within 6 mos for $150k, and perhaps 1 year for $180k, what's
> the house actually worth? To me, it's $150-180k, because I have
> no intention of giving it away at a fire sale.

What passes for financial "wisdom" these days is astounding.

a) If your house is "worth" anywhere near $150K, then it will surely sell for more than $20K in a reasonably short time.

b) For an illiquid asset, 1 day is not a reasonably short time. Houses cannot, as a general rule, be sold in 1 day due to transaction frictions. A reasonably short period for selling residential real estate is 30-45 days.

c) I'm happy that you have no intention of "giving away" your house. That's irrelevant to the market price except insofar as it shows sticky price phenomenon. The idea is that you may change your mind, or have your mind changed for you by circumstances. In that case, what is your house worth? The best laid plans don't always materialize regardless of your vigor in stating your case. If I'm loaning you money or otherwise capitalizing your sitting there in your home office typing Seeking Alpha advice, then I want to know what your home is really worth as dictated by the market, not by your wishes for the future.

Your comment adds further evidence to my thesis that there are very few honest, free market participants in our supposed free market capitalism. Rather, people only embrace the free market when they're winning, and suddenly want to resort to rule changes when they are losing. (And don't start with arguments about when the FAS rules changed on MtM; fair value accounting has been a known factor for a long time prior for other reasons.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123298-dr-doom-responds-on-wells-fargo?source=feed#comment-409252 409252
Good luck, and remember, 6% is in the bag.]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 09:59:17 -0500
Good luck, and remember, 6% is in the bag.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122309-the-three-riskiest-banks-american-banker?source=feed#comment-404791 404791 Thu, 26 Feb 2009 13:53:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118339-end-of-the-recession-in-2009?source=feed#comment-400746 400746
And here a couple from mine (SF Bay Area):

* Corporate outlooks are dismal. Most have "no bottom in sight".
* European revenues have fallen off the planet. For many tech companies, this is the largest portion of their recent revenue growth.
* More job cuts are coming. Companies that cut 10%-15% earlier are now preparing to cut another 10% or so before year's end.

Traffic still does suck, but congestion periods are becoming visibly shorter. In many areas jams are gone shortly after 6:00pm. By comparison, in 1999 jams in those areas stretched until 8:30-9:00pm, and in 2005 jams lasted until 7:30-8:00pm.

I won't even go into real estate. lol.]]> Mon, 23 Feb 2009 20:41:14 -0500
And here a couple from mine (SF Bay Area):

* Corporate outlooks are dismal. Most have "no bottom in sight".
* European revenues have fallen off the planet. For many tech companies, this is the largest portion of their recent revenue growth.
* More job cuts are coming. Companies that cut 10%-15% earlier are now preparing to cut another 10% or so before year's end.

Traffic still does suck, but congestion periods are becoming visibly shorter. In many areas jams are gone shortly after 6:00pm. By comparison, in 1999 jams in those areas stretched until 8:30-9:00pm, and in 2005 jams lasted until 7:30-8:00pm.

I won't even go into real estate. lol.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121833-inflation-demand-destruction-and-wealth-erosion-trump-money-growth?source=feed#comment-397909 397909
The terrible irony of US monetary expansion is that it could well have an opposite-aggravating effect on US deflation. The more $ we print, the more we destabilize the global economy, the more demand there is for our dollars (experienced as a "treasury bubble").

I posit that the more money we print, the more we lose control over our monetary policy. This won't result in any kind of hyperinflation, but in deflation as the world pushes up our real-interest-rate despite our zero-rate policy. When people are elbowing each other out of the way to buy 30 year bonds at 3% and short bonds at a negative rate that tells you something: the real rates are much higher. The Fed can say "0%" all day long, but the world is saying they're worth much more all-things-considered.]]> Sat, 21 Feb 2009 14:35:01 -0500
The terrible irony of US monetary expansion is that it could well have an opposite-aggravating effect on US deflation. The more $ we print, the more we destabilize the global economy, the more demand there is for our dollars (experienced as a "treasury bubble").

I posit that the more money we print, the more we lose control over our monetary policy. This won't result in any kind of hyperinflation, but in deflation as the world pushes up our real-interest-rate despite our zero-rate policy. When people are elbowing each other out of the way to buy 30 year bonds at 3% and short bonds at a negative rate that tells you something: the real rates are much higher. The Fed can say "0%" all day long, but the world is saying they're worth much more all-things-considered.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121567-rick-santelli-speaks-for-the-silent-majority?source=feed#comment-396528 396528
I keep hearing different forms of that argument. Prove it. Show me. Not in a narrative blah blah blah, but give me a thesis and some numbers. Many have gone to great lengths to outline models for recover here on SA and other blogs. But all I keep hearing is "we have to artificially prop up house prices or else we'll all die".

Prove it or, as it were, STFU.]]> Fri, 20 Feb 2009 10:42:34 -0500
I keep hearing different forms of that argument. Prove it. Show me. Not in a narrative blah blah blah, but give me a thesis and some numbers. Many have gone to great lengths to outline models for recover here on SA and other blogs. But all I keep hearing is "we have to artificially prop up house prices or else we'll all die".

Prove it or, as it were, STFU.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121688-santelli-s-rant-a-watershed-moment?source=feed#comment-396502 396502
]]> Fri, 20 Feb 2009 10:33:47 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121397-the-great-inflation-moderation-that-wasn-t?source=feed#comment-395209 395209
I was surprised to learn that Telecom wasn't a real industry as well. Who woulda thunk it?

Actually, I think he left out rail and telecom because those weren't simple speculative bubbles -- they were complicated by massive government distortions in the form of how deregulation occurred. Both were previously regulated monopolies. Is it possible to deregulate and break up a gov't supported monopoly without a bubble occurring? ]]> Thu, 19 Feb 2009 12:02:32 -0500
I was surprised to learn that Telecom wasn't a real industry as well. Who woulda thunk it?

Actually, I think he left out rail and telecom because those weren't simple speculative bubbles -- they were complicated by massive government distortions in the form of how deregulation occurred. Both were previously regulated monopolies. Is it possible to deregulate and break up a gov't supported monopoly without a bubble occurring? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121271-obama-s-housing-plan-elegant-and-costly?source=feed#comment-393984 393984
But simply, it [pause] will [pause] not [pause] work.

Housing prices will still fall because real incomes are declining and current prices are nowhere near the 31% household AGI targets.

And lower housing prices are a *good* thing. I suspect most of those pro-bailouters here know that. It's just not good for their biz so they continue to pimp Japanese style pricing props (which worked oh so well for the Japanese).

But honestly, any monkey with a 3rd rate junior college understanding of undergrad econ can puzzle that lower prices are much more stimulative than artificial price floors.

...unless, that is, pro-bailouters were bubble-buyers too, or they levered up on their equity during the boom thinking they'd discovered gold in their basement... For you folk, to f-ing bad. Why do you deserve any more public assistance than the dot-commer who bought a home against his Webvan options?]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 15:23:50 -0500
But simply, it [pause] will [pause] not [pause] work.

Housing prices will still fall because real incomes are declining and current prices are nowhere near the 31% household AGI targets.

And lower housing prices are a *good* thing. I suspect most of those pro-bailouters here know that. It's just not good for their biz so they continue to pimp Japanese style pricing props (which worked oh so well for the Japanese).

But honestly, any monkey with a 3rd rate junior college understanding of undergrad econ can puzzle that lower prices are much more stimulative than artificial price floors.

...unless, that is, pro-bailouters were bubble-buyers too, or they levered up on their equity during the boom thinking they'd discovered gold in their basement... For you folk, to f-ing bad. Why do you deserve any more public assistance than the dot-commer who bought a home against his Webvan options?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121250-gold-the-only-remaining-bubble?source=feed#comment-393827 393827
The fear of missing out on gains, and therefore losing out relative to those who play.

What's happening in Treasuries is a Fear-Bubble. That's a whole different animal. It's the fear of losing, period. It's a hell of a lot harder to pop a fear bubble than a Greed-Bubble. The Fed & their international friends are learning that lesson right now.]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 13:44:54 -0500
The fear of missing out on gains, and therefore losing out relative to those who play.

What's happening in Treasuries is a Fear-Bubble. That's a whole different animal. It's the fear of losing, period. It's a hell of a lot harder to pop a fear bubble than a Greed-Bubble. The Fed & their international friends are learning that lesson right now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121250-gold-the-only-remaining-bubble?source=feed#comment-393817 393817
All currencies are fiat in the end. Even gold coins with a silhouette of the king stamped on them. Beyond a kingdom of a few thousand subjects, currency is necessarily authorized and regulated. Thus, fiat. If a new king comes along, you can't melt your old gold and put the new king's face on it (without paying tribute to your monarch) without losing your head for counterfeiting.

People keep confusing Gold, Commodity-indexed fiat currency systems, Floating exchange-based fiat currency systems, and barter. I get the sense what most are hoping for is a total breakdown of currency and a reversion to barter.

Be careful what you wish for.]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 13:41:52 -0500
All currencies are fiat in the end. Even gold coins with a silhouette of the king stamped on them. Beyond a kingdom of a few thousand subjects, currency is necessarily authorized and regulated. Thus, fiat. If a new king comes along, you can't melt your old gold and put the new king's face on it (without paying tribute to your monarch) without losing your head for counterfeiting.

People keep confusing Gold, Commodity-indexed fiat currency systems, Floating exchange-based fiat currency systems, and barter. I get the sense what most are hoping for is a total breakdown of currency and a reversion to barter.

Be careful what you wish for.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119133-15-companies-that-might-not-survive-2009?source=feed#comment-388557 388557 Sat, 14 Feb 2009 13:27:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117739-wsj-weighs-in-on-peter-schiff?source=feed#comment-388554 388554
Schiff's every recommendation, statement and position rely upon an assumption that trends will proceed uninterrupted by unseen, unknowable, unplannable gotchas. Well, if even some of what he ultimately predicts will play out at the macro level occurs then his disciples will be sitting there shocked, wondering how being right could lead to being so wrong about what to do.]]> Sat, 14 Feb 2009 13:18:44 -0500
Schiff's every recommendation, statement and position rely upon an assumption that trends will proceed uninterrupted by unseen, unknowable, unplannable gotchas. Well, if even some of what he ultimately predicts will play out at the macro level occurs then his disciples will be sitting there shocked, wondering how being right could lead to being so wrong about what to do.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120016-in-praise-of-suze-orman?source=feed#comment-388543 388543
Advice #1: don't buy crap off of home shopping channels.

Simply, she's exploiting those financially illiterate, desperate, ignorant people she's feigning to care to help. Why isn't she just selling her books and videos the normal way without an extra 50% "shipping and handling" markup?]]> Sat, 14 Feb 2009 13:07:14 -0500
Advice #1: don't buy crap off of home shopping channels.

Simply, she's exploiting those financially illiterate, desperate, ignorant people she's feigning to care to help. Why isn't she just selling her books and videos the normal way without an extra 50% "shipping and handling" markup?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119199-this-is-just-the-beginning?source=feed#comment-384281 384281
If even some of what Peter predicts comes to pass the results will be so non-linear in nature that all his best positioning and prognosticating won't prove any greater than just rolling the dice.

Not surprisingly, nearly all the Schiff faithful I encounter tend to also suffer from overconfidence bias, arrogance about their own ability to predict the future, and the delusion that they have never been wrong about anything.]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 13:51:12 -0500
If even some of what Peter predicts comes to pass the results will be so non-linear in nature that all his best positioning and prognosticating won't prove any greater than just rolling the dice.

Not surprisingly, nearly all the Schiff faithful I encounter tend to also suffer from overconfidence bias, arrogance about their own ability to predict the future, and the delusion that they have never been wrong about anything.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118103-u-s-debt-default-dollar-collapse-altogether-likely?source=feed#comment-380446 380446
It is very simple: Hyperinflation is a case where a country continues to pay foreign debt despite its devastating effects at home.

No country, and I mean literally *none*, has ever submitted itself to hyperinflation so long as it maintained a credible, military force. Those that did suffer hyperinflation did so up until such time as (a) they established such a military offset or (b) they were backed by a country or countries with such military offset.

Schiff and his zealots think linearly and ignore the non-linear nature of global geopolitical reality. Russia did *not* suffer hyperinflation for more than a brief--almost insignificant--moment. Why? Because they didn't have to. End of story.

Your EUR denominated stocks and gold are simply not going to skyrocket to the moon because the US is dying of hyperinflation. The greater forces of history will take over long before that point. And you, the Schiffeans, will be sitting there wondering how you could be so right yet so wrong.

Read Taleb.]]> Sun, 08 Feb 2009 23:11:09 -0500
It is very simple: Hyperinflation is a case where a country continues to pay foreign debt despite its devastating effects at home.

No country, and I mean literally *none*, has ever submitted itself to hyperinflation so long as it maintained a credible, military force. Those that did suffer hyperinflation did so up until such time as (a) they established such a military offset or (b) they were backed by a country or countries with such military offset.

Schiff and his zealots think linearly and ignore the non-linear nature of global geopolitical reality. Russia did *not* suffer hyperinflation for more than a brief--almost insignificant--moment. Why? Because they didn't have to. End of story.

Your EUR denominated stocks and gold are simply not going to skyrocket to the moon because the US is dying of hyperinflation. The greater forces of history will take over long before that point. And you, the Schiffeans, will be sitting there wondering how you could be so right yet so wrong.

Read Taleb.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118103-u-s-debt-default-dollar-collapse-altogether-likely?source=feed#comment-378991 378991
--Without taking sides on the issue of the possibility of default, I'd like to add this recommendation for this article: the caterwauling from the deflationists and radical dollar bugs centers on the impossibility of US default and the US dollar's "King of the Fiat Sewer" status. --

a) Saying "without taking sides" does not excuse proceeding to immediately take sides.

b) "Deflationists" do not deny the possibility of default.

c) In fact, most cyclical, it'll-be-real-bad "Deflationists" believe there will be a default. Maybe not a declared one, but at least a "stealth" one.

d) Default results in/is cause by a deflation spiral, Hyperinflation is caused by not defaulting.

Before caterwauling, try to get your macroeconomics straight.]]> Fri, 06 Feb 2009 21:34:01 -0500
--Without taking sides on the issue of the possibility of default, I'd like to add this recommendation for this article: the caterwauling from the deflationists and radical dollar bugs centers on the impossibility of US default and the US dollar's "King of the Fiat Sewer" status. --

a) Saying "without taking sides" does not excuse proceeding to immediately take sides.

b) "Deflationists" do not deny the possibility of default.

c) In fact, most cyclical, it'll-be-real-bad "Deflationists" believe there will be a default. Maybe not a declared one, but at least a "stealth" one.

d) Default results in/is cause by a deflation spiral, Hyperinflation is caused by not defaulting.

Before caterwauling, try to get your macroeconomics straight.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115072-analysts-discuss-apple-without-jobs?source=feed#comment-363511 363511
The sun is setting on the day of the herd-mentality analyst. My advice to Apple: dump them. Even if their little spreadsheet models weren't bogus, you can get better accuracy in analysis out of a shoddily programmed artificial neural network program running on a ten year old computer.]]> Thu, 22 Jan 2009 19:01:14 -0500
The sun is setting on the day of the herd-mentality analyst. My advice to Apple: dump them. Even if their little spreadsheet models weren't bogus, you can get better accuracy in analysis out of a shoddily programmed artificial neural network program running on a ten year old computer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114966-exclusive-interview-with-jim-rogers-inflation-is-coming?source=feed#comment-358541 358541
Hate to keep saying it over and over, but look to Nassim Taleb, not Rogers, Schiff or your local frustrated peak oil short-crude goldbug fiat hater.

]]> Sat, 17 Jan 2009 14:42:59 -0500
Hate to keep saying it over and over, but look to Nassim Taleb, not Rogers, Schiff or your local frustrated peak oil short-crude goldbug fiat hater.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114484-invest-now-with-a-keen-eye-and-be-regarded-a-genius-for-decades?source=feed#comment-355430 355430
So few people seem to understand how much money is being destroyed it's little wonder the comments run 20:1 on SA in favor of the inflationary holocaust scenario. Remember, every time US consumer debt falls -- as in people paying down their credit card debts -- that equates to a dramatic rise in US savings rates. The Fed can print all the money they want, so long as the velocity continues to decline there will be deflation. Deflation causes destruction of demand and supply; negative growth. By the end, inflation isn't inflation because it ends up being expansion concordant with growth.]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 10:17:39 -0500
So few people seem to understand how much money is being destroyed it's little wonder the comments run 20:1 on SA in favor of the inflationary holocaust scenario. Remember, every time US consumer debt falls -- as in people paying down their credit card debts -- that equates to a dramatic rise in US savings rates. The Fed can print all the money they want, so long as the velocity continues to decline there will be deflation. Deflation causes destruction of demand and supply; negative growth. By the end, inflation isn't inflation because it ends up being expansion concordant with growth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113843-housing-where-is-the-bottom?source=feed#comment-353348 353348
And that is simply modeling the last 3 cycles without considering scale. As one of the author's graphs shows, the scale this time is so disproportionate that it's hard to rely upon old cyclical notions entirely.

I know that my area has seen maybe 20%-30% nominal price reductions from the peak 2005/2006 wishing-prices. But those highs represented upwards of 300% deviation from the very-long run trend. So a mere 30% reduction, as it were, "ain't nuthin".]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 11:22:32 -0500
And that is simply modeling the last 3 cycles without considering scale. As one of the author's graphs shows, the scale this time is so disproportionate that it's hard to rely upon old cyclical notions entirely.

I know that my area has seen maybe 20%-30% nominal price reductions from the peak 2005/2006 wishing-prices. But those highs represented upwards of 300% deviation from the very-long run trend. So a mere 30% reduction, as it were, "ain't nuthin".]]>