Randy_H

Don't Miss the Coming Gold Bull

On "hyperinflation", which is the core premise of your article:

*Sustained* hyperinflation, the sort of condition which utterly destroys a nation's economy, has _never_ occurred within a (modern) country that maintains a credible and project-able military force. In fact, historical sustained hyperinflations have been halted by either (a) establishment of a credible military power as in the post Weimar Germany; or (b) foreign intervention inevitably by a country or countries which maintain such a power, as in the case of Israel.

Other countries such as Russia, when facing a long-run hyperinflation scenario, simply change the rules -- ie. default in one way or another. The world simply must accept that outcome and endeavor to restructure global financial positions accordingly.

The goldbug theories are all predicated upon terribly flawed thinking. The sort which Nassim Taleb eloquently describes in his books. They are assuming a linear-style projection of macroeconomic factors in arriving at their outcomes which, of course, inevitably favor gold becoming worth a zillion dollars per ounce.

I am not smart enough to tell you how this current situation will play out. But I am smart enough to tell you that I don't, and that I simply cannot. And neither can you. What you can do is think outside the box and broaden your consideration of possibilities. You can prepare for the unknowable unknowns by maximizing your exposure to positive things you can know, and minimizing your exposure to things you can't. Or more concretely, minimize your exposure to gold (note I didn't say eliminate it, just make it minimal).

Why Oil and Gold Are Headed Much Higher

"you can bet that it, along with oil and real estate and any other hard assets, will skyrocket"

I heard that before. Circa 2004. Real estate: buy now or be priced out forever. Give me a break.

Do you guys even realize that you're just wishing and begging for yet another bubble? You disguise yourself in language of economic reformers, but in truth you just want the bubbles-R-us economy to rage on. You're just jealous you missed the last one and want the next to be in something you own.

The rest of us are for no more bubbles. Period.

Why Oil and Gold Are Headed Much Higher

--"When the ones on here that read this do not own any of either are crying I really, really do not want to hear you complain or even whine. You had a chance now before it just blows up like a bomb to get some and then you will just be wondering how to buy groceries and pay for bills."--

Wow. Sounds just like every other bubble blowhard. If I had a double eagle for every time I heard a realtor tell me "buy now or be priced out forever!!!" The problem with being an extremist is you end up looking just like your enemies. I'm sure you're one of those who was beating up on real estate bubble cheerleaders, but you failed to see the pom poms you're shaking.

--"I on the other hand will be able to take a vacation away from all the ones that are asking if I can spare a Silver dime...."--

Good luck with that strategy. Even if you're right you're going to find out quite rudely why your precious metals are spendable in a Mad Max economy exactly once. Once and only once. After that, everyone will know you've got it, and trust me, guys like you and I who post on SeekingAlpha are not going to be the sort who can hold onto their gold against the sorts of Alpha-males who'll be running the show in your fanciful all-gold, barter economy.