"If the Chinese government opens up and allows more foreign competition, then Baidu could be in trouble."
Correct, but I think the PRC is unlikely to open up such a sensitive area as Internet content.
"if Google is allowed to return, then Baidu could face a huge headache in its core search segment"
Arguably Baidu now has superior experience complying with government censors; conforming to local practices is key in China. Other market share issues are relevant, agree that competition is heating up.
"A future hard landing in China would be bad for Baidu".
And every company that derives revenue from China. Macro risk.
"Baidu's marketshare in the mobile phone search segment is not even half that of the PC share."
This is a risk, agree. Need to see how this develops, but I wonder if Baidu's strength in desktop search can be leveraged for mobile?
"Baidu has been late to the cloud computing space.."
Relatively late compared to who? Baidu's core market is in China, are they still late? Google Drive is -=* COMPLETELY *=- inaccessible from China without a VPN. I experience this on a daily basis.
"Chinese companies listed in the US have come under sharp attack for accounting problems if not outright fraud"
The bigger risk here is the PCAOB / CSRC issue. This is a major area of concern, however I think the size and scale of this is too large to implode. Every MNC has something at stake here, so I imagine a solution will be found, just not in the most timely fashion.
The Greek Shipping Industry Is A Leading Indicator [View article]
You have a fair point. It is always incredibly easy to either Monday morning quarterback or heckle. Takes a lot fewer juevos rancheros to throw stones ex-post than to put your name on a published note.
I've been the target of some pretty scathing criticism before (we all start somewhere) and I empathize with you - criticism is welcome (and helpful) as long as it's constructive.
The Greek Shipping Industry Is A Leading Indicator [View article]
i agree, i think that reader should have written an article, hope he does. seemed to employ more facts to support some conclusions (namely calendar factors and oversupply).
don't feel bad, try to learn something from the earlier criticism. it's better to have someone rip you a new one on a message board than see your P&L reflect a bad move. and if you're thinking about initiating a position in DRYS, you should *really* welcome any news/information that you hadn't already thought about...namely ORIG. thats huge for these guys.
Thanks for the article, I thought it was very interesting to compare what a "brand" is worth to what the market says the company is worth.
You mentioned that in most cases, the brand value was about 30% (or less) of EV. Was that a pretty random distribution, or were there certain business types (services vs. manufacturing, for example) that typically had different (brand value / EV) multiples? Just curious how internally consistent Interbrand's data was, if you have a view.
As Shipping Gets No Relief Bankruptcies Are To Be Expected [View article]
Thanks for the post, I was glad to see an article on SA that used data.
I agree that a few BKs would be a harbinger of a recovery, but wonder if lenders will force liquidation (a bad loan book is tough enough, but running the company? ugh). Maybe some zombies out there...stay frosty
Dangdang Q1 2013 Earnings Preview [View article]
Baidu - Why You Cannot Buy It [View article]
Correct, but I think the PRC is unlikely to open up such a sensitive area as Internet content.
"if Google is allowed to return, then Baidu could face a huge headache in its core search segment"
Arguably Baidu now has superior experience complying with government censors; conforming to local practices is key in China. Other market share issues are relevant, agree that competition is heating up.
"A future hard landing in China would be bad for Baidu".
And every company that derives revenue from China. Macro risk.
"Baidu's marketshare in the mobile phone search segment is not even half that of the PC share."
This is a risk, agree. Need to see how this develops, but I wonder if Baidu's strength in desktop search can be leveraged for mobile?
"Baidu has been late to the cloud computing space.."
Relatively late compared to who? Baidu's core market is in China, are they still late? Google Drive is -=* COMPLETELY *=- inaccessible from China without a VPN. I experience this on a daily basis.
"Chinese companies listed in the US have come under sharp attack for accounting problems if not outright fraud"
The bigger risk here is the PCAOB / CSRC issue. This is a major area of concern, however I think the size and scale of this is too large to implode. Every MNC has something at stake here, so I imagine a solution will be found, just not in the most timely fashion.
Surprise Cash Infusion Turns 2013 Into A Reset Year For Navios Maritime Holdings [View article]
Corning: Short-Term Catalysts, Long-Term Value and Optionality [View article]
The Greek Shipping Industry Is A Leading Indicator [View article]
I've been the target of some pretty scathing criticism before (we all start somewhere) and I empathize with you - criticism is welcome (and helpful) as long as it's constructive.
Thanks for the effort, hope you keep it up.
The Greek Shipping Industry Is A Leading Indicator [View article]
don't feel bad, try to learn something from the earlier criticism. it's better to have someone rip you a new one on a message board than see your P&L reflect a bad move. and if you're thinking about initiating a position in DRYS, you should *really* welcome any news/information that you hadn't already thought about...namely ORIG. thats huge for these guys.
The Case For Corning: Confusion Creates Buying Opportunity For This Unloved Equity [View article]
I'll keep an eye out on your sum of parts & liq value posts.
Using Brand Values To Pick Stocks [View article]
You mentioned that in most cases, the brand value was about 30% (or less) of EV. Was that a pretty random distribution, or were there certain business types (services vs. manufacturing, for example) that typically had different (brand value / EV) multiples? Just curious how internally consistent Interbrand's data was, if you have a view.
As Shipping Gets No Relief Bankruptcies Are To Be Expected [View article]
I agree that a few BKs would be a harbinger of a recovery, but wonder if lenders will force liquidation (a bad loan book is tough enough, but running the company? ugh). Maybe some zombies out there...stay frosty
Cheers for the note, its helpful