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  • Millennial Media: Strange Trading Pattern  [View article]
    Though not an executive at either company, I knew of the deal before it occurred and did not buy because doing so would be unethical. I think your suspicions are completely valid.

    If you look back to the previous week there is additional suspicious activity. I also happen to know that the deal was not finalized until last week and there were real doubts about whether on not it would occur until Wednesday.
    Sep 18, 2013. 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Housing Starts (the bear case): 872K in starts doesn't even reach the level of the bottoms of previous cycles. Dow Jones' Kathleen Madigan points out the historical average is about 1.5M/month. (previous[View news story]
    Isn't that the bull case?
    Oct 17, 2012. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Divergent Jobs Reports: Will The Real State Of The Labor Market Please Stand Up?  [View article]
    Jack Welch doesn't make any claim supported by evidence that is materially different than this post. The only difference is spin.
    Oct 11, 2012. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "I couldn't even read the whole application," says John Paulson of a 500-page SEC filing hedge funds are to complete as part of Dodd-Frank reforms. "It's a complete waste of time ... they don't know what they wanted, they just asked for everything in every possible way." Yes, but Paulson (and everyone else) surely hired a team of lawyers to take care of it. Mission Accomplished.  [View news story]
    It is not 500 pages only because the SEC doesn't know what it wants. It's also 500 pages because the financial industry prevented enactment of simpler reforms and Congress is broken.
    Sep 21, 2012. 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Avoid Facebook Until After October 25?  [View article]
    14 year old girls? Moms love Facebook... Ad industry research does not support your contention about the efficacy of Facebook ads.

    Facebook is in a different league than myspace in terms of use, technological hardware, and vision. The creators of myspace started in the online porn industry and just wanted to make a quick buck. Don't hold your breathe for another social networking site to knock it off. Google+ tried and failed miserably. Twitter is not social networking, it is micro-blogging.

    I don't own Facebook shares because I think it's valuation got out of control, but it is business that will make money for a long time.
    Sep 20, 2012. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Avoid Facebook Until After October 25?  [View article]
    I don't know. Several recent developments suggest that FB might have an earnings surprise. 1) Facebook has become more aggressive with promoted stories on its mobile app. 2) Facebook has opened it's ad inventory to real-time bidding http://bit.ly/Py2nnS, 3) Facebook has to try to monetize it's user's data: http://tcrn.ch/UmbBqp. In addition, the possibility of Facebook adding search provides the opportunity for Facebook to be optimistic on its guidance.

    I agree that mobile monetization will not be complete this quarter, but the ad industry moves quickly... Considering how beaten down the stock has been, it wouldn't take much to send shares higher.
    Sep 18, 2012. 10:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's No Longer A Bernanke Put  [View article]
    A great discussion of the downside of monetary stimulus. Nice work. That being said, I don't think the U.S. is going to become Zimbabwe (obviously) and the comparison is unnecessary, akin to invoking Hitler in an argument about political freedom or human rights. There are also much more reasonable historical comparisons to be made, namely the U.S. in the 1970s.
    Sep 14, 2012. 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jackson Hole Confirms No QE Soon  [View article]
    Oops. Looks like you allowed what you wanted to happen interfer with your ability to predict what would happen... I have done the same thing many times.
    Sep 13, 2012. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Job Creation: Where Are The Startups?  [View article]
    Interesting article. To dig deeper into the question it would be helpful to breakdown startups by sector. If there have been large differences across sectors, this would suggest that either globalization or technology have been playing a big role (depending on the sectors). If the decline has been relatively similar or particularly high in highly regulated industries, this would add to the regulation argument.

    To elaborate, if the decline in start ups has been concentrated in something like specialty retail, this would suggest the importance of the technological changes and innovations that have lead Walmart and Amazon to be so successful. One could imagine other industries more closely tied to globalization (e.g. apparel). By contrast, if the decline has been concentrated in energy and other highly regulated industries, perhaps regulation is the answer.

    I have no doubt that regulation has hindered the development of some start-ups. My father's business eventually had to be sold primarily because of how indoor smoking regulations affected his business... But, the question is whether or not regulations and taxes have increased enough *since* 1999 to explain the changes described above.
    Sep 13, 2012. 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliff Diving: Will Congress And The President Destroy The U.S. Economy?  [View article]
    For what it's worth, every liberal I know (and I know a ton of them) thinks that Obama, at best, is too centrist and pragmatic and, at worst, is in the pocket of big banks.
    Sep 13, 2012. 02:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE3 Will Not Happen  [View article]
    I agree, bias was not the best choice of words. I was thinking of the technical meaning of the word in reference to his assessment of the effect of monetary policy. You have obviously interpreted the term much more broadly to mean something like opinion.

    I did not say that QE1 or QE2 had no effect on the stock market. I said that his evidence for determine the effect of each was flawed and probably showed an exaggerated difference between each.

    Again, I didn't say the Fed wasn't corrupt. The point is simply this: the author has not identified who in society would benefit from QE3 and how this would help members of the Fed.

    Sep 11, 2012. 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE3 Will Not Happen  [View article]
    I never said that there wasn't corruption. The point is that the author does not clearly identify the incentives of the FED, corrupt or not, in a logically consistent manner.
    Sep 11, 2012. 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3 Now Could Mean QE4 Later  [View article]
    A more persuasive argument about why the Fed may not enact QE3 than another I just read... Hard to guess how policymakers will act.
    Sep 10, 2012. 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE3 Will Not Happen  [View article]
    Your prediction may or may not be correct, but your reasoning is not persuasive. First of all, to make such strong assertions about the effects of monetary policy (in all contexts) indicates a strong bias. Second, what matters for the action of the Fed is the perceptions of the Fed. Your beliefs about the effectiveness of monetary policy are irrelevant. Read the Jackson Hole speech to get some idea of the Fed's perceptions. Third, it is illogical to attribute months of stock market returns to QE1 or QE2 and then draw conclusions about diminishing returns. Clearly, other factors matter (earnings, expected earnings, etc). Fourth, your discussion of corruption suggests that you know very little about the composition of the Fed, how members are appointed, or anything else about the Fed. Moreover, if QE is ineffective, what corrupt incentives does the Fed have to enact it?
    Sep 10, 2012. 05:11 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Has Not Been Any Supply-Side Revolution  [View article]
    Agree. Note: my last sentence was referring not to you but to those criticizing you here and in other places--since they have attempted to explain the gap... To make the point that the U.S. is unique, I think the comparative chart does wonders. Indeed, I think you might enjoy doing an entire post on just that comparison.

    See page 42:
    Sep 6, 2012. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment