ETF STER

The Fundamentals of Oil Shocks

Supply and Demand fundamentals are no longer driving the market. There is more supply today versus demand as compared to the "bubble" in oil prices in 2008.

While I agree that speculation was and is not the "Primary" cause of the oil spike in 08, the stubbornly high oil price today and most of 09 shows more speculation than fundamentals.

Speculation by the big banks in America and around the world are artificially raising the price of oil. The TARP injections of monies into the major banks has thus far not increased the willingness of the banks to lend. However, banks are showing profits from their brokerage affiliates, and I believe that commodities, in particular oil, is the preferred vehicle for those profits.
If fundamentals were in play in this market, oil prices should be no higher than $50/bbl.

Peak Oil for Dummies

HELP........The SKY is Falling, The SKY is Falling!!!!!

More Bullishness for Oil Heading into 2010

Current production is 1-2 million barrels per day more than demand. It will take longer than you think to work off the extra crude. All of the "green shoots are turning out to be weeds.

The current rise in crude is the result of speculation that the world economy will turn around next year.

I think you are overly optimistic in your prediction.

Why Are Oil and Gasoline Prices on the Rise?

With the rise in forward contracts and the drop in U.S. inventory, the tankers in the U.S. Gulf may soon unload their cargoes at higher prices.

It would not be a stretch to see inventory building again in the coming weeks.

Crude Prices Should Hang Around $50 While Gasoline Prices Likely to Rise

Irrational Exuberance

Oil Price Moves (February 11 - March 27)

Inventories of crude oil have grown to levels that have not been seen since 1993. Building from 246.1 mb/d Jan. 30, 2009 to 356.6 mb/d Mar. 25,2009.

Oil Demand has stayed constant at 14.16 mb/d in the same time period.

As long as supply increases and demand stays constant, there should be a decrease in the price of crude going forward. Also, as long as contango rules the market, the price of oil will trend lower.

Crude Oil Takes a Backseat to Gasoline

The 700,000 barrel draw on crude inventory was because of a 700,000 barrel build to the SPR (strategic petroleum reserve).

It seems to me that there was not any increase in inputs according to Wednesdays EIA inventory report.

Trend Reversal in Oil

Looking at the first chart, you can see a wedge formation, if oil breaks below that wedge...look out below.

Oil is oversupplied right now, and yes, there will be a time in the future (who knows how far in the future) when oil will be in shorter supply, however, inventory is still building and demand is flat or falling.

I believe there will be a breakout lower from the wedge formation................
but hey, that's just my opinion.

RJ

The Professor Of Commodities: Interview with James Doran (Part II)

I agree. Anyone that knows even a little about commodities knows that the prices fluctuate. Go back to teaching! Those that can, do, those that can't, teach.

Short Oil as a Long Investment

Until there is a true oil commodity short ETF, there will not be a correct or true corollation to oil.

DUG is not a true oil short ETF, it tracks companies that do business in the oil industry, not the oil itself.

Managing Duration for Commodity Funds: Which Strategy Is Best?

Very short of any information of real use.

If someone invests in ETF's without knowing about the funds management style, then they have not done due diligence and deserve the consequences.

The Oil Story: Dallas vs. Indonesia

Mixster,

I agree whole heartedly. The U.S. has about fifty years of proven reserves (not counting the East and West coast offshore areas off limits). Allowing domestic oil companies to do what they do best, explore and harvest the petroleum resources we have on our own continent. Along with a responsible, defined energy policy would lessen our dependence on fossil fuels over the next fifty years. Set benchmarks that are achievable, and monitor progress. perhaps every five years review the progress and make adjustments as necessary.

Politicians blame oil companies for some arbitrary conspiracy to keep prices high, when in truth, it is the Congress that has restricted the free flow of oil at market prices by enacting laws that have effectively restricted the upgrading of our domestic oil infrastructure. Drilling/exploration restrictions and the cumbersome environmental rules that prevent the building of new, more efficient refineries, has more than anything reduced our domestic supply.

I realize that asking Congress to do something with intelligence is asking the impossible, just thought I would put in my two cents worth.

Is This Oil Bubble Going to Deflate?

Yank,
Just to clarify your argument, you used the 3.7% China increase and the .7% U.S. decrease as equal usage.
.7% U.S. decrease is how many barrels?
3.7% Chinese increase is how many barrels. Please use these percentages in the proper context.

Thank you

Record High Crude: Free Markets Meet the Cartel

Right on T!!!

Free markets work, and the equilibrium will come sooner without government intervention.

Congress' Idle Threat against Oil Producers

The pundits tell us that the American people want change.

The Democrat party says they are the party of change.

The voters may get change if they vote for the Democrats.

However, ask yourself, is this the change we really want?

Be careful what we wish for, we may get it.