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StuartKats

StuartKats
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  • Apple: A Value Stock With Numerous Growth Kickers [View article]
    from Asymco.com

    "On a yearly basis iTunes/Software/Services is nearly half of Google’s core business and growing slightly faster.
    The iTunes “empire” of content and services would be ranked as number 130 in the Fortune 500 ranking of companies (slightly below Alcoa and above Eli Lilly)."

    I dont think all the "parts" of apple are fully appreciated by the analyst community, certainly not it's growing ecosystem of sticky users. With the introduction of each successive product, that user is becoming more profitable and more sticky.

    It may not be a growth stock, but ultimately who cares (many here for sure). But is it a better value play than GE, IBM, MMM etc - absolutely AND as mentioned in the article, there are growth kickers that make it very attractive using any fundamental metric you want to use. PE, PEG, P/CF etc
    Feb 11 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Take The Emotion Out Of Apple [View article]
    You definitely nailed it Michael - Shame you unwound your puts. Nice trade nonetheless
    Jan 28 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nobody Is Short Apple [View article]
    Nice article. Too much talk about an impending short squeeze on this or that chat or how short sellers are manipulating the stock. As evidenced by the short ratio and days to cover, not many shorts here. HFTs or option market makers, perhaps
    Jan 9 08:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smartphone Subsidies May End; Apple Might Suffer Withdrawal Symptoms [View article]
    Michael, where do you think "fair value" lives for the stock? and where would you theoretical be interested in getting long?

    Thanks
    Dec 19 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's China Mobile Problem [View article]
    for anyone using the "but but China Mobile had iPhone 5S pictures on their website and was taking pre-orders"....Remember, China Mobile put photos of the ACTUAL iPhone 4S on billboards 2 years ago to promote its wi-fi, without an Apple agreement. Nothing is done until it's actually done. Dont trade on rumours and especially dont trade on anything that comes out of the WSJ
    Dec 18 11:07 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BAML: Apple/China Mobile hopes too high [View news story]
    I find analysts' attempt to quantify the value proposition an Apple product misses the mark by a wide margin because the value is in the product's aesthetic which is by definition not measurable. I'm beginning to suspect that it should be the luxury brand analyst that should cover Apple vs. technology.
    Dec 10 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple rallies; U.S. iPad demand strong over Thanksgiving/Black Friday [View news story]
    Retailers offer gift cards to iPad buyers because market research suggests that this demographic will use the gift card to buy MORE than the value of the gift card. Everyone wins. It's the main reason telcos subsidize Apple products - because they know they will make more from the money spent on data plans than the cost of the subsidy. Therein lies the brilliance of apple products.
    Nov 29 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Addressing The Elephant In The Room [View article]
    Jim, you assume the market will look favourably at a "new" company now trading with ~150B in debt after the tender offer is complete. But what if the market becomes skittish about the size of debt - even with the cash flow, then what bullets does management have ?

    A more prudent and responsible use of cash would be a one time special dividend (say $10B or $10/share) in addition to the regular dividends. This is completely within management's discretion, therefore no obligation to continue, they can determine the size of of the div to ensure they retain as much cash as they feel they need all while signaling to the market their financial strength.
    Nov 27 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Addressing The Elephant In The Room [View article]
    JBCM - i`ve read the article again and I still do not understand the benefit to the company. The fact that a company can retire between 20-30% of it`s shares does not mean it should.

    As I have written before - Apple is not the first and only company in the history of the stock market to see it`s shares undervalued. The answer is, has been and always will be patience. That is the very definition of VALUE INVESTNG. Find value where the market does not recognize of see it and then wait until the market does. It ALWAYS eventually readjusts. If you do not like the way management is running the company you have a two choices - do not invest or short it. It really is that simple. But to suggest the company engage in a buy-back of this magnitude is silly.

    Also, some historical perspective on Ichan is also warranted. While brother-carl has been kind enough to say he would not participate in a tender offer, what does any reasonable person think he will do with his shares when the stock trades AT THE TENDER OFFER. This is why Carl is so disingenuous - it`s shameful.

    Mr Mullin`s math is compelling and he puts forth a thoughtful piece but again just because a company can does not mean it should. Financial engineering ruins companies.
    Nov 27 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung And Microsoft Have Winning Strategies, Apple Has Some Strategic Decisions To Make [View article]
    Thanks for the link.

    Apologies for the suggestion that you said Apple is doomed - agreed you never said that. Sentiment tends to be very extreme with this stock both positive and negative.
    Nov 27 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Addressing The Elephant In The Room [View article]
    Jim - forgetting the shareholders. How does the buy back benefit the company ? i.e. assuming record debt, eliminating their cash moat and security blanket - what does the company gain ?

    Rates a currently low, but what happens if/when rates rise and that debt needs to be refinanced a significantly higher rates?

    The rationale for assuming debt to buy back stock just because the stock has not made new highs this year makes absolutely no sense.
    Nov 27 11:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung And Microsoft Have Winning Strategies, Apple Has Some Strategic Decisions To Make [View article]
    Michael, the point being to say "android" and present "statistics" of its market share dominance makes no sense. The more relevant discussion should be and is with people like Ben Thompson, John Kirk, Ben Evans, Ben Bajarin, how does iOS stack up against Samsung, Microsoft, HTC, Blackberry etc. In that discussion iOS is the clear and dominant operating system but a wide margin - i dont think it is even close.

    I understand you get a lot of flack from the fan-boys on this stream. I am certainly not one. My only interest is making money and have done extremely well long Apple - as well as being short. But I find it difficult not to comment when the same myth is being perpetuated over and over again especially when framed with the statistics you present.

    For all those that suggested and were pounding the table that Apple was doomed in emerging markets and would lose out to "android", please see India:

    http://bit.ly/18HpYOq

    Apple's not doing so poorly and in fact out selling Samsung's flag ship phone.
    Nov 27 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung And Microsoft Have Winning Strategies, Apple Has Some Strategic Decisions To Make [View article]
    android is not a single operating system. Please read techpinions for unbiased view.

    http://bit.ly/1iQh5WC
    Nov 26 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Urgently Needs Debt To Raise Earnings Per Share By 13.8% [View article]
    I also have to ask the question why? Leverage is rarely a good thing in and of itself especially when the only reason is to return it to shareholders. Pim, you've obviously put in a lot of work but there is one really simple answer to the question - What to do with apple stock ? - Patience! You seem fairly young - not necessarily a negative but what that suggests to me is a lack of historical perspective. This is not the first time that a company with unheard of fundamentals had it's stock languish. Generally, and over time, this gets corrected and patient investors will be rewarded. No different for Apple shareholders. The market will one day wake-up to this fact. No idea when but it will happen.

    The market is a function of fundamentals and psychology (positive & negative) and at any given point a stock may be ruled by one or the other. Clearly Apple has fantastic fundamentals but with negative psychology - stock is hated. The answer is not to mortgage the future by raising debt to get a short term pop in the stock. That is all Captain Carl wants. A short term pop in the stock long enough for him to monetize his position. Nothing wrong with that except that it is NOT in the long term best interest of the company. Financial alchemy destroys companies.

    I think this has already been mentioned but Apple's cash provides the company with tremendous flexibility to manage itself with the long term in mind vs. the next quarter. Also, keep in mind that Apple"s main competitor - Samsung - is a quasi gov't entity with an almost limitless balance sheet. I wouldnt be surprised if that is not a small reason for their conservative use of cash.
    Nov 22 05:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst: Potash industry endgame nears, Potash and Mosaic to benefit [View news story]
    This is a great dividend stock. Payout will increase next year with the end of their capex which should add (according to the company) ~500-700MM. Get paid while waiting for the supply-demand dynamics to work them selves out in addition to the idiocy with Uralkali. Risks are to the upside with muted downside imho. Good luck all
    Nov 22 04:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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